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©2004 AgCert International LLC™ The Solution for Managing Climate Change State of the Global Emission Reduction Marketplace Changes Since COP-9 Todd Jones AgCert International LLC
©2003 AgCert International LLC, AgCert™ 2 2 ©2004 AgCert International LLC Discussion Topics Major Events UNFCCC Methodologies Supply & Demand Market Sophistication
©2003 AgCert International LLC, AgCert™ 3 3 ©2004 AgCert International LLC Major Market Events since COP-9 European trading scheme In January 2005 the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) will commence operation as the largest multi-country, multi-sector Greenhouse Gas emission trading scheme world-wide. Trading has already started EU ETS linking directive April 2004 – Linking directive approved by European Parliament. European firms will be able to use CDM credits (CERs) from January 2005 and JI credits (ERUs) from 2008, independent of the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol Russia ratifies Kyoto June 2004 – Russia indicates that it will ratify Kyoto by or at COP-10 November 2004 – Russia ratifies Kyoto, bringing the Protocol into force February 16, 2005 Publicly announced CER transactions Nuon and TransAlta announced large CER purchases Mandatory Canadian reporting guidelines Commence January 1, 2005
©2003 AgCert International LLC, AgCert™ 4 4 ©2004 AgCert International LLC UNFCCC Methodologies COP-9 5 methodologies approved Uncertainty regarding approval process and length of time to approval COP-10 16 methodologies approved Better understanding of approval process Higher interest due to EU ETS linking directive and Kyoto ratification 1171 proposed CDM and JI projects have so far been registered in Point Carbon’s Project Database. Out of these, 265 projects, potentially yielding 374 MtCO2e of emissions reductions towards 2012, have reached PDD level. (Source: PointCarbon – December, 2004) In its budget proposition for the CDM Executive Board's work for 2005, the UNFCCC Secretariat based its calculation on, amongst other things, that 70 methodologies would be submitted for approval next year. It was also assumed that 200 projects would be submitted for approval in 2005
©2003 AgCert International LLC, AgCert™ 5 5 ©2004 AgCert International LLC The EU Supply & Demand Expected EU Shortfall* 195.0M tonnes Possible CERs** 53.5M tonnes Delta 141.5M tonnes * Source: Evolution Markets, January = ** Through 2007 based on current submitted methodologies (Source: PointCarbon CDM Monitor, July 2004) Delta may change as methodologies are introduced and NAPs are finalized. Many CDM methodologies will produce more CERs than immediately apparent if methodology is approved (like AgCert’s).
©2003 AgCert International LLC, AgCert™ 6 6 ©2004 AgCert International LLC Market Sophistication COP-9 More sellers than buyers No standard contract CER prices below 4 Euro Uneasiness of whether Kyoto ratification would occur Lack of project finance from sources other than government COP-10 Balance between sellers and buyers Contracts becoming more standardized, however still no industry standard CER prices above 5 Euro Kyoto ratified, market becoming a reality Private industry stepping up to provide project financing Continuing efforts by major European emitters and now the entry of the Japanese and Canadian buyer contingency
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