Presentation on theme: "Information and Communication Technologies for Innovation J.P.CONTZEN IST LISBOA February 4, 2005."— Presentation transcript:
Information and Communication Technologies for Innovation J.P.CONTZEN IST LISBOA February 4, 2005
« With the coming of the information society, we have for the first time an economy based on a key resource that is not only renewable but self- generating » John Naisbitt Megatrends Warner Books, N.Y., 1982
The role of ICTs in Innovation A strong engine for innovation in their own field. With biotechnologies, they represent one of the most creative fields of S&T development and of its rapid transformation in products, processes and services. A strong engine for innovation in other fields. They have revolutionized the conduct of Science, the diffusion of knowledge; they have impacted on all areas of human activity, they have facilitated organizational and institutional innovation.
Innovation within ICTs Innovations in the two essential areas of hardware and software should progress in parallel. Within hardware,several aspects: Processors Memories Input/Output interfaces Communication links Energy supplies Computer and system architecture
Processors (1) Processors: The challenge is getting greater transistor density, and lower cost. Moore’s law of doubling performance every 18 months is still valid but for how long? Physical limits of packing circuitry are not far away: 90 nm constitute currently the minimum feature size. Ultra-small electronics could no longer be silicon- based. HP Quantum Science Research Group in Palo Alto works on molecular electronics (IHT, February 1, 2005, p.13)
Processors (2) Processors (cont.): In the longer term, optical, quantum and DNA processors could be the solution. “Cooler”, less energy hungry, processors constitute an emerging trend for innovation: “preferring an energy-efficient processor that gives an extra hour of battery life to one that can run your PowerPoint animation faster” (MIT Technology Review, February 2005) The Pentium M is the answer of Intel to this issue.
Processors (3) Processors (cont.): “Platformization” constitutes the other emerging trend, i.e. the convergence of computing and communications. Microprocessors for raw computing power are no longer the solution.The Intel Centrino is an example of the evolution: the combination of a Pentium M, a Wi-Fi radio and a new low-power chipset (memory and graphics chips supporting the CPU). In March 2003, Centrino had already 11% of the market of wireless networks.
Memories, Input/Output Devices Memories: greater density, reduced access time, sensitivity to “soft errors” induced by cosmic rays and alpha particles (non negligible rate of errors, from 4 to 10 failures per 10000 chip-hours) Input/output devices: two challenges: electronic/optical interfaces and voice actuation
Communication (1) Communication links: Mobile and Wireless systems beyond 3G, optimally connected anywhere, anytime. Broadband is the main motto but not at the expense of geographical coverage. Security is another preoccupation, e.g for VoIP configurations (FT, February 3, 2005).
Communication (2) and Energy Communication links (cont.): the battle for broadband access: is it essential? 100 pages file: 34 Mb/s = 0.5 s; 64 kb/s = 30s Color photo high quality: 34 Mb/s = 1.5 s; 64 kb/s = 15min. 5 min. full screen video: 34 Mb/s = 25 min.; 64 kb/s = 9 days The tools available for broadband: satellite, coaxial cable, optical fibers, local radio, copper wire with ADSL Energy supplies: the weak point of any portable system, miniature fuel cells as a possible solution?
Computer Architecture (1) Computer architecture: several issues trigger innovation in this area: replacement of sophisticated processors by more simple ones e.g. “an Intel 64-bit Itanium processor replaced by an array of several hundreds of 4- or 8- bit processors of the Intel 8086” (Ian Pearson, UK futurologist, FT, January 26, 2005). Most applications do not require sophisticated processors The end of the desktop due to the evolution of notebooks and mobile platforms?
Computer Architecture (2) Computer architecture (cont): Low cost computers, using paper and cardboard, MIT Nishi 10$ objective, J.Willard 1-2$ objective (www.papercomputer.com)www.papercomputer.com Profitability of PC manufacturing in question with IBM project sale of its PC business to Lenovo in China (US Congress objections for security reasons) The return of the mainframe at the expense of servers? The server market was down in recent years while mainframe maintained its position.
Computer Architecture (3) Computer architecture (cont): Would Grid computing reverse this trend? Harnessing the processing power of thousands of distributed computers would be the solution? Interfaces constitute the main issue, interconnecting clusters of servers and transport large amounts of data at high speeds over Wide Area Networks (WAN). Experiments between CERN Geneva and Carleton University, Ottawa via Amsterdam and Chicago, achieved line speeds of more than 9 Gigabytes per second and moved 365 Terabytes of data over 91 hours of operation without loosing a single data package. Grid computing is a reality for e-Science, will it move in other areas?
Computer Architecture (4) Computer architecture (cont): The race of supercomputing power: the most powerful supercomputer is still in Japan, the Earth Simulator with an operating speed of 35.86 Teraflops (peak 40.96 Teraflops). The second one is in Spain, Mare Nostrum, in the 30Teraflops range. The 4 next ones are in the US.
Computer Architecture (4) Computer architecture (cont): One objective of grid technology and supercomputing: reducing computing time The example of a 0.1 degree grid for ocean dynamics simulation over long periods of time: for a century of evolution, it requires 28 days computing on the Earth Simulator. With most of the current CPUs devoted to scientific computing, it would require 850 days. The objective for the future is a Peta scale grid : One Petaflops for operations and 10 Petabytes of storage.
Computer Architecture (5) Computer architecture (cont): Another objective of grid technology: large scale storage of data: The example of the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC) computing grid: one single LHC detector (ATLAS) will produce, after 2007, 2 Petabytes per second of raw data; filtering leaves 320 Megabytes per second of data, requiring a yearly storage of 10 Petabytes. The data from the LHC will be stored on 10 000 commodity servers with 1 Terabyte of storage. On-demand access to LHC data will be provided world- wide.
Computer Architecture (6) Computer architecture (cont): Grid computing and supercomputers raise the acute question for moderate size computing centers about how much capacity should be kept internally. The extreme would be none, considering computing as a utility in the same way as water, gas and electricity
Systems Architecture (1) Systems architecture: The trend is towards the diversification of functions, information and communication together: The success of camera cell phones exceeding in sales already in 2003 the digital still cameras. The success of Voice on Internet Protocol: NORTEL Canada currently saves 22 M$ on a 4.7 M$ investment by asking employees to make phone calls on soft phones rather than cell phones. Current Microsoft based smart phones synchronize e-mail diary and contacts like a PDA. The competition will be essentially on prices (P800 smart phone as expensive as fully equipped PDA)
Systems Architecture (2) Systems architecture (cont.): The use of cell phones as credit cards The next step: the multipurpose watch? Time, TV, pager, computer, camera, music player, health monitor. Interest of major players Timex, Samsung, Swatch (IHT, January 24, 2000)
Software (1) Too much complexity? “I wanted a pound of butter and Bill Gates sold me a grocery store” (Senior US Telecom executive) What future for software? Two scenarios (CIO magazine, December 15, 2003): A land where giants rule: few monopolistic vendors, expensive, complex, not very innovative Open source slays Goliath: open-source software pushed by European and Asian governments. US CIOs climb aboard. You don’t pay for the software but for the services. Innovation will flower.
Software (2) Other issues: The increased attention devoted to I/O interfaces such as speech The expansion of virtual reality The improvement of artificial intelligence, robotics, expert systems, pattern recognition. Artificial Intelligence with high level cognitive capabilities is a significant subject: interpreting data from real world events, developing reasoning, planning and communication faculties.
Software (3) Other issues (cont.): “Data mining”: “We are drowning in information but starved from knowledge” (John Naisbitt, op.cit.). Improvements in data handling, storage and retrieval are essential. The development of tools for the digitalization of people’s own memorabilia: « Google yourself », visual diary of people. The exchange of information using people’s own languages.
Software (4) The language issue: In terms of language on-line use, the main issue is not the predominance of English but rather the balance to achieve between a strong demand for work in native languages and a weaker offer in such languages, as illustrated by the following data.
Software (5) The language issue (cont.): The on-line community using English represents 36.2% of the total Internet population while this language zone represents 33.4% of the world economy, a fairly proportionate relation. Non- English European languages are used by 35.5% of internauts while accounting for 30.3% of the economy. Asian languages total 28.3% of on-line use for 36.3% in economical terms.
Software (6) The language issue (cont.): The distribution of languages other than English used mainly by Internauts is as follows : Chinese 10.8% ; Japanese 9.7%; Spanish 7.4% ; German 6.6% Korean 4.5% ; Italian 3.8% French 3.5% ; Portuguese 3.0% Russian 2.9% ; Dutch 2.0%
Software (7) The language issue (cont.): In contrast, in terms of web pages existing in a specific language, about 70% are in English while non-English European languages are limited to about 18% and Asian languages to 12%. The offer is much more restricted, there lies the main issue. (source: http://glreach.com)
Innovation in ICTs applications (1) Many applications have experienced a strong development, notably: E-health: ICT-based systems processing and integrating all possible relevant biomedical information from different levels and from different places, followed by interpretation, leading to health prevention, diagnosis and treatment E-government: efforts for interfacing with public but inside the government itself? E-voting is not favored by citizens.
Innovation in ICTs applications (2) E-commerce: the total E-Commerce in 2003 amounted to about 4 Trillions $, with a predicted growth to 6.8 Trillions $ in 2004. 59% are in the US, 21% in Western Europe and 18% in the Asia Pacific region. 2% are left for the rest of the world. (source: Forrester Research, Inc; http://glreach.com)
Innovation in ICTs applications (3) E-business: a growing area, some European countries (Ireland, Sweden, U.K.) lead over the US, more could be done in terms of on-line billing, on- line supply E-safety: great potential in transportation systems E-risk: self-organizing, self-healing, ad-hoc in situ monitoring and alert systems, crisis management.
Innovation in ICTs applications (4) Other important areas: E- learning: the virtual school, college, university. Important for developing countries and lifelong learning E-elderly care: socially important with the aging of the population. Quality of life is the issue. E- agriculture: an area not fully exploited, could assist leapfrogging in developing countries
Innovation in ICTs applications (5) Other important areas (cont.): E- inclusion: generalized accessibility in consumer goods and services to ensure equal access, independent living and participation in all aspects of the Information Society. Development of assisting systems, innovative solutions for persons with cognitive disabilities.
Social consequences of ICTs applications (1) Internet replaces social interaction, more than TV (studies by Stanford, CMU, ISCTE, Univ. Lisboa) ICTs favor delocalization of industrial activities, not only call centers and software factories but also industrial production: digital products are easier to produce than analog ones: Nokia delocalizing its production, failure of Sony to do so (FT, January 27, 2005). IT should be low-tech?? The proliferation of blogs raises the issue of free speech (FT, January 26, 2005)
Social consequences of ICTs applications (2) Internet replaces social interaction, more than TV (studies by Stanford, CMU, ISCTE, Univ. Lisboa) ICTs favor delocalization of industrial activities, not only call centers but also industrial production: digital products are easier to produce than analog ones: Nokia delocalizing its production, failure of Sony to do so (FT, January 27, 2005) The proliferation of blogs raises the issue of free speech (FT, January 26, 2005)
Social consequences of ICTs applications (3) The most important impact of ICTs: the consumer becomes a producer, participating in the production of goods and services. The creative contribution of the consumer could mean the end of industrial production and mass consumption. Consumers become financial analysts, literature critics, photographic artists, printers. Star Academy is a sign of the shaping of musical stars by the public. (La Libre Belgique, January 15-16, 2005)
Social consequences of ICTs applications (4) “In the future, editors won’t tell us what to read. We will tell editors what we choose to read” (John Naisbitt, op.cit.) In E-Science, Google becomes the reference for scientific evaluation.
In conclusion Speaking of the ICT revolution is no hype. Information and Communication Technologies are revolutionizing our World and their impact has not been yet fully felt. The most important issue is not technological, it is political and social, i.e. how to master it for the benefit of the greatest number of human beings.