Presentation on theme: "Warnings The Elements of Early Warning System Warning Centre A network of Land-based Seismic Stations Bottom Pressure Recorders in the Tsunamigenic Zones."— Presentation transcript:
Warnings The Elements of Early Warning System Warning Centre A network of Land-based Seismic Stations Bottom Pressure Recorders in the Tsunamigenic Zones Tide Gauge Network (Real time) Coastal Radars, Current Meter Moorings Upper Ocean, Surface Met- Ocean Observations Data Communication (INSAT) CB, Edu.Trg Historic Data Bathymetry Coastal Topography Coastal Vulnerability Numerical Modelling Tsunami Storm Surge
Seismic Stations National International Tsunami Buoys National International Tide Gauges National International Observation Network in Indian Ocean (Earthquake & Sea Level)
Bhuj Bhopal Bokaro Chennai Dehradun Samla Dharamshala DELHI HYDERABAD Goa Pune Shillong Thiruvananthapuram Minicoy Vishakapattinam Diglipur Po rt Bl air Camp bell Bay Network of 12 Deep Ocean Assessment and Reporting Systems (DOARS) for detection of Tsunami Waves Buoy under Lab Test TB4 TB1 TB5 TB6 TB3 TB2TB7 TB8 TB9 TB10 TB12 TB11 I N D I A Network of 17 Seismic stations with Central Receiving Stations at IMD Delhi and INCOIS, Hyderabad for monitoring the seismic activity KANNIYAKU MARI MAGDA LLA JAIGA RH RAMESHW ARAM PONDICHE RRY NIZAMPAT NAM AERIAL BAY ANDRO TH CAMPBELL BAY KAVARATTI (+1) VERAV AL ENNOR E EXISTING TIDE GAUGE STATIONS PROPOSED TIDE GAUGE STATIONS CHANDI PUR CHENNAI (+1) MACHALIPAT NAM VISHAKHAPATN AM PARADIP (+1) BEYPO RE MINIC OY COCHIN (+1) TUTICORIN (+1) NAGAPATNA M (+1) MANGALORE (+1) KARW AR GOA (+1) MUMBAI (+1) PORABAND AR VADINAG AR OKH A KANDL A NANCO WRY PORT BLAIR (1+2) RANGAT BAY (2) GARDEN REACH DIAMOND ARBOUR (+1) HALDIA (+1) SAGAR KAKINA DA VIZHINJ AM PIPA V 5 Coastal Radars 2 Current Meter Moorings 26 Surface Drifters 2 XBT Lines Surface, Met-Ocean observing platforms Observations from other Systems on Internet Network of 50 Tide Gauges for monitoring the progress of Tsunami Waves Seismic NetworkBottom Pressure RecordersTide GuagesComplementary Observations Tsunami and Storm Surges Observational Network
Tsunamigenic Zones that could affect Indian Coasts Modelling studies indicate that for Tsunamigenic Earthquakes occuring close to the A&N Islands, the AWT is less than 30 Minutes and for the Indian Mainland the AWT is about > 2 Hours. This means that the criteria to be adopted for issue of warnings need to be different for A&N & for the mainland. Since immediate warnings need to be issued for A&N (without enough time for confirmation of Water levels), this might lead to some false alarms; However, in the case of mainland warnings will be issued only upon confirmation of Water Levels; Hence False Alarm rate will be very low.
Generation Propagation Run up Heights and Inundation Seismic Deformation Bathymetry Coastal Topography Tsunami N2 Model Epicenter (Assumed Epicenters) Depth of Fault Top Edge (0, 20, 40, 60, 80, 100) Magnitude (5.5, 6.0, 6.5, 7.0, 7.5, 8.0, 8.5, 9.0, 9.5) Fault length (log L = 0.55 M – 2.19) Fault width (log W = 0.31 M – 0.63) Displacement (log D = 0.64 M – 2.78) Strike angle (Parallel to Trench – Worst Case) Dip angle (45 deg – Worst Case) Slip angle (90 deg – Worst Case) Database of Scenarios Models Cannot be run during the event due to large computing time and non-availability of Fault Parameters in real-time from Seismic Wave Form Data Hence for Tsunami Forecasting, database of pre-run scenarios is essential Tsunami Modelling for Operational Early Warning GLOBAL RELATIONS BETWEEN SEISMIC FAULT PARAMETERS AND MOMENT MAGNITUDE OF EARTHQUAKES – Papazachos B C, etal
Field station 1Field station 2Field station 17 Get continuous waveform data from field stations through VSAT communication Ring buffer Storage of continuous and processed data Detect trigger at any one station Give alarm to operator Prepare waveform database for 4 to 5 minutes for at least 4 stations Automated epicentral parameter estimation Detect trigger at three to four stations Transmission of pager / SMS message to designated authorities Automated hypocentral parameter and magnitude (Mb/ Mwp) estimation Transmission of pager message, SMS message and PER to designated authorities through fax/email, etc. Get waveform data from distant stations and /or for longer duration Automated hypocentral parameter and magnitude (Mb/ Mwp/Ms) estimation, Determination of Fault Plane Solution and Moment Tensor Solution Is Determination satisfactory ? NO YES Get more waveform data including surface wave from all field stations Improved hypocentral and Kinematic/dynamic Source parameter estimation Prepare final database with waveforms and Source parameters including, Phase data etc. Off line data Show continuous waveform of selected stations on display panel Display of source parameters on display panel -- - - - - - - - -- - - - - --- - - - - - -- - Addition of more data and reanalysis for improvement Scrutiny by seismologist 20-30 minutes Occurrence of an earthquake 10-20 minutes 5- 10 minutes 3 – 5 minutes 2 – 3 minutes Time lines of the Seismic Monitoring Network
Maximum inundation : 1.1 Km. Maximum run-up elevation : 3.86 m Total Area of Village : 15.24 sq.km Coastal area under CRZ shore to 500m from HTL : 4.0 sq.km Probable Area of inundation : 6.89 sq.km Major Affected Landuse : Builtup, Built with Vegetation Ward Numbers : 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17, 18, 23, 24, 25, 34, 35 Vulnerability Map Generate Extensive Database of Coastal Inundation