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3/17/03 Trends in Wireless Systems A subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry Richard S. Wolff, Ph. D. 406 994 7172 March.

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Presentation on theme: "3/17/03 Trends in Wireless Systems A subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry Richard S. Wolff, Ph. D. 406 994 7172 March."— Presentation transcript:

1 3/17/03 Trends in Wireless Systems A subjective view of a rapidly evolving industry Richard S. Wolff, Ph. D March 17, 2003

2 3/17/03 Outline Some user trends The emergence of WiFi (802.11) The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G? Some areas for research and innovation

3 3/17/03 Mobile devices will dominate Source: Risto Perttunen, McKinsey, 9/00 PCs TV households Mobile phone Subscribers worldwide Millions Wireline phone

4 3/17/03 India Brazil Italy Aus. Ger. UK Fin. Neth. Sw. Taiwan Japa n S. Kor. Den. USA Canada Spain Fr. Malay.

5 3/17/03 Strong growth in cellular subscribers (US data) Subscribers Double Source: CTIA, 2000

6 3/17/03 DoCoMo annual revenue per user (voice and i-mode) (JY) 8480 Source: NTT DoCoMo Website, Investor Relations

7 3/17/03 1 billion wireless gadgets by 200x (Choose x = 4, 5,...) Gadgets and technology originally developed for one purpose will be used in new and innovative ways for other purposes –WiFi developed for enterprise wireless LANs but can be used as public infrastructure Two parallel, contradictory (or complementary) gadget trends leading to different needs and capabilities –Integration: cell phone as pager, organizer, e-wallet, radio, media player... –Specialization: different functionality, form factors, power requirements, connectivity, processing and storage, fashion niches

8 3/17/03 Example: integration DoCoMo 3G FOMA phone Download 684 kbps, Upload 64 kbps (nominal) Still and video digital camera – Add text and frames to pictures or split into a jigsaw puzzle – Send as – Share video while talking Remote video monitoring using a second phone i-motion service for multimedia content download (music, movie clips etc) Source: NTT DoCoMo website

9 3/17/03 Example: hybrid BlackBerry Wireless Handheld Initially paging, now two-way Initially text-based, now image and text Cellular voice added Targeted at business users Integrates with office software High level of security Source: BlackBerry web site

10 3/17/03 Example: specialization Designed to do one function very well

11 3/17/03 Traffic characteristics Voice Multimedia 50 % 70 – 80 % 20 – 30 % Relative Traffic

12 3/17/03 Bandwidth Available is Inversely Proportional to Range

13 3/17/03 Outline Some user trends The emergence of WiFi (802.11) The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G? Some areas for research and innovation

14 3/17/03 Wireless LANs – Technologies [1] Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum [2] Direct Sequence Spread Spectrum [3] Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing SpecificationBandwidth (shared media) Unlicensed Frequency Band Modulati on Issues/Comments Bluetooth0.7 Mbps2.4 Ghz ISM FHSS 1 Personal Area Network (PAN) Interferes with b 2.4Ghz b/WiFi11 Mbps (83.5Mhz) 2.4 Ghz ISM DSSS 2 Limited QoS & security Corrected in e extension g/WiFi22 Mbps2.4 Ghz ISM DSSS 2 BW extension of b HomeRF10Mbps2.4 Ghz ISM FHSS 1 Limited vendor adoption, forecasted displacement by b a51 Mbps (300 Mhz) 5 GhzOFDM 3 In-compatible with b 4 non-overlapping channels (vs. 3 channels for b) 2x power required of b today More expensive than b today Not licensed in Europe HiperLAN/251 Mbps5 GhzOFDM 3 In-compatible with b European licenses only so far Long term harmonization w a

15 3/17/03 Wireless LANs: complement or compete with cellular? Source: Pyramid research

16 3/17/03 New Intel chip set: Will this get the ball rolling?

17 3/17/03 W-LAN Deployment – work in progress Security – older standard (WEP) being replaced –802.1x for authentication/password –Alternative is access point controller (e.g. Bluesocket or Vernier) Visitor Based Networks (VBNs) or Hot-Spots –Boutique ISPs emerging now: Boingo, Joltage, Wayport, EtherLinx, WiFi Metro –Larger ISPs waiting for wireless WAN solution to emerge Provisioning and management of W-LANs –Enterprise and residential provisioning of subscribers –Configuration of security and QoS

18 3/17/03 Typical Hotspots Architecture commonly deployed in Coffee shops and airports: Coffee Shop/Hotel/Public Space, etc Installation (Per Site) Hardware:$4000 Installation:$500 On-going Internet Access:$150/month Access Point(s) are “dumb” & AAA Server Located at Every Site

19 3/17/03 WiFi and Fries….. March 11,2003

20 3/17/03 Convergence? Use of WiFi for fixed Internet access

21 3/17/03 A peculiar marriage: Cable operator using WiFi for fixed access March 11,2003

22 3/17/03 Integration of voice and data on WiFi Wireless Access Point Note PC PDA Cellular Handset Service Provider’s Network Mobile Communication Server and system  Features –Voice & Data Integration by IP –Realtime Mobility –Seamless handoff, Voice support –Wireless Security –AAA and encryption for the access network –QoS –Admission control, L2 QoS management LAN Voice&Data User Premises

23 3/17/03 Talks Weigh Big Project on Wireless Internet Link By JOHN MARKOFF SAN FRANCISCO, July 15 — Several leading computer and telecommunications companies are discussing the joint creation of a wireless data network that would make it possible for users of hand-held and portable computers to have access to the Internet at high speeds nationwide. The Intel Corporation, I.B.M., AT&T Wireless and several other wireless and Internet serviceIntel CorporationI.B.M. providers including Verizon Communications and Cingular are exploring the creation of aVerizon Communications company to deploy a network based on the increasingly popular wireless data standard, known as WiFi, according to several people close to the talks……. The Convergence of Wi-Fi and Cellular… NY Times, July 15, 2002

24 3/17/03 Seamless Mobility/Transparent operations: Cellular to WiFi ITSUMO testbed Telcordia/Toshiba research project

25 3/17/03 The car as the next internet appliance WiFi Network IGW... Fixed Network Cellular Network Content Seamless mobility Fast handoffs Content adapts to available bandwidth Current solutions are limited in scope and functionality Hot Spot

26 3/17/03 Summary– Wireless LAN applications W-LAN solutions converging on WiFi (802.11b -> a) –Enterprise & residential WiFi LAN network opportunity exists today –Hot-Spot & Visitor Based Nets (VBNs) coming? –W-LAN obstacles to mitigate: QoS, mobility, scaling,security –Interworking with cellular- coming soon

27 3/17/03 Outline Some user trends The emergence of WiFi (802.11) The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G? Some areas for research and innovation

28 3/17/03 Cellular networks- is there a 4G coming? The bandwidth perspective 100 M K 100 K 1 M 10 M PDC GSM TDMA cdmaOne GPRS cdma2000 1X WCDMA cdmaOne 1X EV-DC, 3X EDGE G 2.5G3G 3.5G 4G 1G AMPS b 5.5/11 Mb PBCC BT H2 Speed bps BT = Bluetooth H2 = Hiperlan 2 PDC = Personal Digital Cellular ? ??

29 3/17/03 Attribute1G2G3G4G Voice qualityPoorReasonableGoodExcellent CoveragePoorReasonableGoodExcellent RoamingNone or Inconvenient ReasonableGood for voiceSeamless for all apps Voice services FewBasic telephonyReasonableMany DataNoneLimited Many WWWN/APoorLimitedConvenient Other user issues Decreasing $/MoU but Increasing total $/month Security: w-spam, privacy, etc Tradeoff security/QoS for price. Low Environment Impact Wireless generations: User’s view

30 3/17/03 This is just the beginning! Source: Rainer Malaka, EML ICDE 2001

31 3/17/03 4G Imperatives(1 of 3) Innovative applications, not voice, will be the key revenue generator  Programmability and open interfaces while maintaining security, QoS, and bill-ability  Foster a 3 rd -party app developer community Build on work centered on fixed networks  The search for the killer app should never end Any static portfolio of applications and services will eventually become a commodity  Radical personalization and niche applications Applications with a market size of 1

32 3/17/03 4G Imperatives(2 of 3) True convergence with the Internet is critical  IP must be supported efficiently  Remove discontinuities at the wired/wireless interface and the data/voice interface  The Internet must also evolve to support wireless mobility and ubiquity efficiently Example: Fundamental addressing issues dictate IPv6 Example: Fundamental inefficiencies in supporting mobility must be removed

33 3/17/03 4G Imperatives(3 of 3) Spectrum will remain the vital resource –Integrate with unlicensed spectrum Allow creative technology and business models for seamless inclusion of hotspots and multi-hop WLAN and other technologies –Manage licensed spectrum efficiently Consider dynamic and market-based mechanisms for on- demand spectrum allocation

34 3/17/03 4G: The Basic Model Native Applications IP-Based Core Network 3G / Native Access 3 rd -party Applications Voice 3G / 3 rd - party Access Native WLAN Hotspot 3 rd -party WLAN Hotspot 4G Access Network Emerging Access OPEN INTERFACE PAN, CAN, AAN etc. OPEN INTERFACE Middleware

35 3/17/03 Evolution towards 4G 3.5G: An All-IP network (i.e., with Wireless IP) integrating all our current favorite IETF protocols (MIP, FMIP, HMIP, CARD, PANA, etc ) 4G: A programmable, flexible, application-oriented Web- based architecture suitable for fundamentally supporting –mobility –WWW –ubiquitous computing –semantics-aware applications –…

36 3/17/03 Outline Some user trends The emergence of WiFi (802.11) The evolution of cellular: is there a 4G? Some areas for research and innovation

37 3/17/03 What are some of the missing pieces – areas for research and innovation (1 of 3) Spectrum use –Ultra-wideband –Dynamic spectrum reuse –What about free space optical? Software defined radios –Flexible modulation and coding –Software downloads of middleware and applications Array antennas –Dynamic beam formation –Interference rejection –Further exploit signal processing and active feed back and control

38 3/17/03 What are some of the missing pieces – areas for research and innovation (2 of 3) Ad hoc networks –Use the clients as fixed network infrastructure –Use alternate routing to mitigate congestion, dead spots –What about the third dimension: incorporate satellites –Dynamic binding: car-to-car, car-to-roadside Applications designed for wireless: exploit programmable host platforms (BREW, J2ME, Pocket PC, etc.) –Location awareness – exploit it –Advances in user interfaces – accommodate for mobile use, hands free operation –Mobile code (agents) for mobile users

39 3/17/03 What are some of the missing pieces – areas for research and innovation (3 of 3) Economic models –Innovative business models Cost/benefit analyses –Life cycle cost studies –Impacts of technology trends –Assessments of policy and regulatory changes –Regional deployment scenarios

40 3/17/03 Summary Wireless systems should be defined in terms of applications and services –Not purely by air interface protocol –Coming: Gazillions of wireless gadgets –Need for massive mobile data management Rapid service introduction and heterogeneous technologies (air interface, terminal device, backbone) => programmability and open interface at all levels of the system => applications with market size of 1 A very fertile area for research and innovation


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