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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION Use of risk information for Disaster Risk Management Cees van Westen.

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Presentation on theme: "INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION Use of risk information for Disaster Risk Management Cees van Westen."— Presentation transcript:

1 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION Use of risk information for Disaster Risk Management Cees van Westen

2 ISL 2004 Hyogo Framework for Action Priorities for action : 1.Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation 2.Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning 3.Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels 4.Reduce the underlying risk factors 5.Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels For more information:

3 Disaster Risk Management

4 Pre-disaster activitiesPost-disaster activities Risk identification MitigationRisk transferPreparedness Emergency response Rehabilitation- reconstruction Hazard assessment (frequency, magnitude, location) Structural and non-structural works and actions Insurance, reinsurance of public infrastructure and private assets Warning systems, communication systems, protocols Humanitarian assistance Rehabilitation, reconstruction of damaged critical infrastructure Vulnerability assessment (population and assets exposed) Land-use planning and building codes Financial market instruments (catastrophe bonds, weather- indexed hedge funds) Contingency planning (utility companies, public services) Clean-up, temporary repairs and restoration of services Macroeconomic and budget management (stabilization, protection of social expenditures) Risk assessment (function of hazards and vulnerability) Financial incentives for preventive behavior Public services with safety regulations (e.g. energy, water, transportation) Networks of emergency responders (local, national) Damage assessment and identification of priorities for recovery Revitalization of affected sectors (e.g. exports, tourism, agriculture) Hazard monitoring and forecasting (space-time modeling, scenario building) Education, training and awareness about risks and prevention Financial protection strategies Shelter facilities, evacuation plans Mobilization of recovery resources (public- multilateral, insurance) Incorporation of risk management in reconstruction processes

5 Risk Governance Framework  The aim of Risk governance is to involve the various stakeholders within all aspects of risk management.  Risk communication is central. The International Risk Governance Council Risk Governance Framework ( Source: IRGC, 2006)

6 Stakeholders

7 Aspects in stakeholder involvement AspectQuestion Identification Are stakeholders identified (through a proper process - including prioritisation)? RepresentationAre all relevant social groups represented? EngagementAre all relevant social groups motivated to engagement? Access to Information Share of stakeholders that regularly take part in information meetings Interest Are the stakeholders interested in having information, in the outcome? Trust Do the stakeholders trust the decision makers, institutions and information available? Acceptance - Process Do the stakeholders accept the process? Acceptance - Outcome Do the stakeholders accept the outcome? Dialogue Are stakeholders engaged in dialogue with listening and mutual understanding? Financial Do the financial resources available meet the needs of the governance process defined? Personnel Do the personnel resources available in expertise and capacity meet the needs of the governance process defined? TimeIs there calendar time to meet the governance process defined?

8 Stakeholders  A stakeholder is any individual or group:  with an interest in the success or failure of an organization/ project/ endeavor in delivering intended results.  affected by the outcome of the project.  might be called on to provide input, feedback, or authorization for the use case.  Beneficiary: a stakeholder with an interest in the positive outcome of the project without actively participating  Risk information consumers (RC): refers to governmental and non- governmental institutions (national, regional, local) as well as to communities and individuals, who may require “information on risk” as an input to carry out their specific tasks.  Risk information providers (RP): governmental and non-governmental institutions (national, regional, local), who are requested to provide the required data inputs to carry through the decision making process concerning risk assessment (the technical aspects); this includes providers of basic data as well as providers of information on risk.

9 Who is what? StakeholderRoleExplanation Local Communities RC Local communities are supposed to be direct beneficiaries of risk management policies. They could be regarded as “information consumers” when they make use of participatory mechanisms to take part in the decision making process, and therefore would require to be informed about the topics under discussion (defining insurance policies, land use management plans, etc.) Communities can also take part in the risk assessment process as “information providers”, especially when considering issues related to vulnerability assessment (risk perception, etc.) Local authoritiesRC Local authorities are mostly using risk information for local decision making. They normally do not have the capacity to generate risk information on their own. Governmental organizations - sectors RC RP Ministries use risk information in their planning processes, they main role is as “information consumers”. However, in many cases, the different sectors make use of their own technical resources to produce risk assessment studies; in this case they are also “providers” of information. National basic data producers RP For instance national bureau of statistics, topographic surveys. Though they produce “general purpose” information, they are relevant for the risk assessment process. National thematic organizations RP For instance: meteorological, seismological, geological that, generally, should be considered and “information producers” Disaster management organization RP RC A disaster management organization is both generating risk information, and is also using this information for early warning, preparedness planning and disaster prevention. Private sector RP RC Consultants can be important source for specific data for hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment. A special case is also the insurance industry, which can be a RP as RC at the same time. Sometimes the entire process of hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment is done entirely by a consulting company. The private sector as a whole is also RC as beneficiary of disaster risk reduction NGO RC RP NGO’s often are actively involved in collecting relevant hazard and vulnerability data at community level. They can also be RC UniversitiesRP Universities can be active in generating hazard and risk information. They can sometimes have the main role in this process International organizations RP RC International organization can bring in additional support for generating hazard and risk information (e.g. World Bank) They also require risk information for making sound investments.

10 Risk communication  who (Source)  says what (Message)  via what medium (Channel)  to whom (Receiver)  and directed at what kind of change (Effect). Predecisional processes Environmental cues Social contextInformation sources Information channels Message content Receiver characteristics Risk identification: “Is there a real threat I need to pay attention to?” Risk assessment: “Do I need to take protective action?” Protective action search: “What can be done to achieve protection?” Protective action assessment: “What is the best method of protection?” Protective action implementation: “Does protection action need to be taken now?” Information needs assessment: “What information do I need?” Communication action assessment: “Where and how can I obtain this information?” Communication action implementation: “Do I need the information now?” Risk communication is the interactive exchange of information about risks among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups and the general public.

11 Risk communication: Netherlands

12 Information and communication

13 Risk visualization  Statistical information per administrative unit (country, province, municipality, or neighborhood)  Risk curves  Maps which shows the spatial variation of risk over an area  WebGIS applications that allow the user to combine different types of information, and display information such as:  Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouses, where through internet basic GIS data can be shared among different technical and scientific organizations involved in hazard and risk assessment.  Animations showing the spatial and temporal distribution of hazards and risk

14 What to visualize for whom? StakeholderPurposeType of risk visualization General publicGeneral information on risks over large areas Basic WebGIS applications in which they can overlay the location of major hazard types with high resolution imagery or topographic maps. Awareness raisingAnimations (what if scenarios) Community-based DRR projectsSimple maps of the neighborhood with risk class, buildings and other features BusinessesInvestment policies, and location planningGeneral information about hazards and risks in both graphical and map format. Technical staff of (local) authorities Land use regulation / zoningMap with simple legend in three classes: construction restricted, construction allowed, further investigation required. Building codesMaps indicating the types of building allowed (building type, number of floors) Spatial planningHazard maps, with simple legends related to probabilities and possible consequences Environmental Impact AssessmentMaps and possible loss figures for future scenarios Disaster preparednessReal time simple and concise Web-based information in both map and graphical forms Decision makers / local authorities Decision making on risk reduction measuresStatistical information, loss exceedance curves, F-N curves, maps. InvestmentsEconomic losses, projected economic losses for future scenarios. Strategic Environmental AssessmentGeneral statistical information for administrative units. NGO’sInfluence political decisions in favor of environment and sustainable development This can vary from simple maps to Web-based applications, depending on the objectives of the NGO Scientists / technical staff of hazard data producers Hazard information exchange to public and other agencies WebGIS applications where they can access the basic information Exchange of basic information for hazard and risk assessment Spatial Data Infrastructure / Clearinghouse for exchanging information Insurance industryDevelopment of insurance policyLoss Exceedance Curves of economic losses, F-N curves MediaRisk communication to public,Animations of hazard phenomena that clearly illustrate the problems.

15 Risk visualization: example 1.

16 Risk visualisation: example 2

17 Web-GIS: RiskCity

18 Risk Atlases: example Java,Indonesia

19 Risk atlas: example Andean countries Population Roads Electrical energy system Oil infrastructure Harbours Airports Agriculture Earthquake Volcanoes Landslides Debrisflow Flooding Cold Drought Tsunami

20 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR GEO-INFORMATION SCIENCE AND EARTH OBSERVATION Tools for risk reduction measures

21 Risk reduction R = f (H, V, C) R = Risk H = Hazard V = Vulnerability C = Coping capacity Risk can be reduced by:  Reducing the hazard  Reducing the vulnerability of the elements at risk  Reducing the amount of the elements at risk  Increasing the coping capacity

22 Risk reduction strategies  Structural measures: refer to any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards, which include engineering measures and construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and infrastructure  Non-Structural measures: refer to policies, awareness, knowledge development, public commitment, and methods and operating practices, including participatory mechanisms and the provision of information, which can reduce risk and related impacts.

23 Risk reduction strategies  Avoidance (eliminate) i.e. modify the hazard  Reduction ( mitigate) i.e. modify the susceptibility of hazard damage and disruption.  Transference (outsource or insure) i.e. modify the impact of hazards on individuals and the community.  Retention ( accept and budget)

24 Risk reducing measures Structural measures Any physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards  engineering measures  construction of hazard-resistant and protective structures and infrastructure  retrofitting

25 Building design to withstand hazards in Mountain areas  Foundation  Base plate foundation  Basement  Waterproof concrete  Enhancement openings and sealing  Backflow flaps  First & second floor  Reinforcement of supporting walls  Roof  Reinforcement of roof  Building openings  Decrease amount and area of windows in hazard direction  Avalanche shutters  Temporary preventive measures (to close openings) Fuchs et al., 2011

26 Building design to withstand hazards in Mountain areas MeasureIncrease in construction costs Reinforcement of the hillside outer wall17 Reinforcement of the structural slab30 Reinforcement of the truss10 Reduction of eaves (decrease in roof area)-16 Avalanche-proof window and window shutters67 Above flood-level light shafts Total costs of the prototype reinforced building8 Fuchs et al., 2011

27 Risk reducing measures - structural Dunes Dikes and polders Dams and barriers

28 Example: the Netherlands  To avoide future flood losses a secondary channel & island are planned.  Restrictive development and some removal of existing buildings

29 (Preparedness measures)  Early Warning  Preparedness and contingency planning  Emergency management (e.g. shelter facilities, evacuation plans)

30 Example: MARSOP3  Crop Yield Forecasting  Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the EC, Alterra, VITO, Meteoconsult.  This system includes:m  management of a meteorological database,  an agro-meteorological model and database,  low resolution satellite information,  statistical analyses of data  crop yield forecasting  publishing of bulletins containing analysis, forecasts and thematic maps on crop yield expectations using a Web-GIS application

31 USGS PAGER  After the magnitude and hypocenter of an earthquake are determined, PAGER retrieves any intensities reported by people in the epicenteral region via the online USGS "Did You Feel It?" system. The colored circles show the reported intensity at a city and the circle's size is proportional to population.Did You Feel It?  PAGER generates a soil/rock site-specific ground-motion amplification map based on topographic slope. This map accounts for the tendency of soft-soil sites to experience stronger ground motion amplification than rock sites.ground-motion amplification map based on topographic slope  Information about the fault geometry and size (black rectangle) is added when it becomes available. The ShakeMap system then produces regional ground shaking estimates (yellow contours) using the reported intensities, the site-specific ground-motion amplification map, and seismic wave attenuation equations that account for the variation of seismic shaking intensity with magnitude, distance and depth.  The ShakeMap system then converts the estimated ground motions to a map of seismic intensity.  The population affected at each intensity level is computed and intensities and populations at nearby cities tabulated by combining the map of intensity with the Landscan population database.

32 CATS: Consequences Assessment Tool Set (http://cats.saic.com/  US tool (FEMA & U.S. Department of Defense's Defense Threat Reduction Agency )  Technological Hazard/Effects Models  High Explosive (Blast damage model )  Toxic Industrial Materials/Hazmat  Biological and Chemical Agent Release  Nuclear and radiological Hazards  NOAA Oil Spill Model  Mass Destruction Hazard/Effects Models  Nuclear, Biological and Chemical  Natural Hazard/Effects Models  Earthquake  Hurricane  Storm Surge  Effects Assessment (Number of Persons, by Category)  Mortality from Radiation Exposure  Mortality and Incapacitation from Biological Agent Exposure  Mortality, Incapacitation, Visual Impairment & Threshold Symptoms from Chemical Agent Exposure  At-Risk Assessment (Number of Items, by Category, Exposed in a Specified Range)  Population, Infrastructure, Residential Structures  Resource Sustainability Analysis  Commodity and Medical Resource Locations  Emergency Response Resource Locations  Roadblocks

33 Simulation exercise  use the risk information that you have generated in the previous exercise for emergency preparedness & response  make a simulation of an emergency that might take place in RiskCity  You are in the geo-information department of the local authority and you have to provide the local authority with the required information to respond to the emergency.  You will get:  Information from organisations that provide important information  Requests from RCEMR to provide answers to questions which you need to solve using GIS

34 Simulation exercise  The best is to work in groups of 2 people.  Use 2 computers – one for analysis, one for communication (keep your University open!)  All answers to information request will be mailed to  Grading will be based on the accuracy of the information you provide to RCEMR, and how quickly you send it  Total of 160 points – aim at generating your responses within about 20 minutes!  We start at o’clock.  First make sure to download the data for this exercise and check it until you start to receive messages.


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