Presentation on theme: "Energy: A Comparative Analysis of Status and Strategies Between India, China and the U.S. Vikram Dalal Whitney Professor Electrical and Computer Engr."— Presentation transcript:
Energy: A Comparative Analysis of Status and Strategies Between India, China and the U.S. Vikram Dalal Whitney Professor Electrical and Computer Engr. Iowa State University, USA Fellow, IEEE and American Physical Society
Introduction Energy is a multi-dimensional problem – a national security problem, an economic problem, a pollution problem What are the dimensions of this problem? How are three of the major economies coping with it? Who is winning?
Arctic has lost ~30% of its ice in the summer-disaster for Polar Bears
CO 2 Temp. Is warming due to CO2? Don’t know! Remember- we are in Inter-glacial warming period Convenient to Blame CO2
Southern Hem.-sea ice may be increasing!
What is going on? Northern ice is melting Glaciers in northern hemisphere are melting Glaciers in Southern Island of New Zealand are increasing Why is north rapidly melting and south not or very slowly? CO2 cannot do it! IPCC models are nonsense – they do not predict the rapid melting of northern ice at all
Probable answer: SOOT – C and particles, not CO2 CO2 does other harm- Changing the acidity of the ocean – destroying corals
India Brown/Black soot Leads to rapid melting Of ice
SOOT From where? Thermal Power plants, diesel exhaust, wood burning (stoves) Particles deposit within one week at the poles C absorbs sunlight – change reflectivity of ice Positive feedback loop – water reflects less than ice
Where? Northern hemisphere – India, China, Middle East: severely polluting China builds 88 GW of power plants a year Southern hemisphere: Only two major industrial countries- Brazil and Australia Brazil uses ethanol for cars, and hydroelectric for power Australia-stringent pollution controls
We have met the enemy and it is us. Local problem – local solution Severe health impacts Health effects – every single city in India with > 1 million people has pollution levels higher than WHO standards ~ 500,000 extra deaths in India because of air pollution (Source: WHO) ~ 600,000 in China (Source: WHO) Deaths in Delhi, 2.3% higher because of particulate pollution (Source: Cropper, World Bank)
Severe impact on food production : Influence of brown cloud on rice production in India – Reduction in sunlight And impact of acid rain Ref. Aufflhammer et al, PNAS, 103(2006)
Local Problem-Local solutions It is good for India and China and the Middle East to reduce pollution It will automatically reduce melting of ice Tech. solutions exist – eg Mercedes and VW “Blue Tech” diesels- meet California and EU standards for particulate emissions Electrostatic precipitators and sulfur dioxide treatment plants for coal burning power plants The West is way ahead of India and China on this control
Acid rain in China (Coal!)
Energy : The Economic Problem : Oil Oil – liquids- needed for transport Cheap oil is gone New oil is in very difficult environments Arctic Ocean, Deep Atlantic Brazilian field : 200 miles off Rio, in 20,000 feet deep water, another 10,000 feet below the bottom of the ocean Not cheap Why is oil at $90/BBl even in recession?
Saudi Arabia cannot increase Capacity at will Iraq can provide another 4-5 MBPD Rest of the world- not much Why is oil so expensive?
Saudi field (Ghawar)is tapped out-needs secondary recovery-there is no simple way to extract oil left-except in Venezuela-Chavez has screwed that up Saudis are Building a pipeline For injecting Water from Gulf Inland 200 miles
Heavy oil-in two places,CA and VZ Canada: 352 B Tonnes Venezuela: 349 B tonnes
Tar sand in Canada Not cheap. About $ 80/BBl for profitable extraction. Fundamental law of economics: Price = marginal cost If alternatives cost ~$ 80, the oil will sell at $80
What about Venezuela? Who owns it? CHINA Will! Just look at who is giving low cost loans to Venezuela, who is signing production and exploration contracts in Venezuela The US and India are out of it. Geopolitics and China’s reserve of $ 2 trillion win!
Why is China building a port in Gwadar, Baluchistan? To get Iranian Oil. To circumvent Strait of Malacca- a “choke” point that the US and India can choke off
China : Energy Intensity vs. GDP
China: Electricity generation
China: Type of fuel use China is now the world’s largest GHG emitter US uses 1 BT of coal/year, China >2.5 BT
China: Power generation by type
China: Transportation Energy
China: Increase in car population(Approx.) Car sales in China > In US for 2009 and 2010 : Hence the Need for Oil
Power capacity (GW,2010)
India: Disastrous record of achievement by Government owned companies
India – New paradigm – Pvt. Sector Power Massive Pvt. sector involvement Ultra plants, 4000 MW each – all thermal Gas or coal fired Gujarat is leading- exporting to other states Mundra (Kutch)-Near Kandla- 2, MW super-critical plants [(Adani Power and Gujarat Coastal(Tatas) ]-Coal Adanis are ahead of schedule! Dahej (Surat) : Another 4000 MW planned [Gujarat Coastal Power]-Gas fired Alstom-Siemens building 700 MW (Gas)
What about technology? US, India, China Energy Efficiency Coal and Gas Power Automobiles Refineries Solar Wind
Carbon Intensity vs GDP Significant Opportunity To reduce Energy/unit of GDP-factors of 2-5
Energy conservation-example: Power Plants efficiency Typical modern US coal fired plant 40% Modern Hitachi plant (Japan) ~ 49.8%(Highest in the world), ~ca Advanced combined cycle: Coal gasification – use gas in turbines Use exhaust from turbine to preheat water for steam turbine ~ 56-60% efficiency possible-already achieved in Germany, Japan BHEL is setting up one combined cycle plant in Rajasthan
Super-critical steam plants
China and Japan beating everyone China is exporting this technology! To India!
India is increasing efficiency – Pvt sector Adanis: From China Tatas: from Toshiba Combined cycle (Gas turbines + steam turbines) : BHEL, Siemens-Alstom, and GE Coal plants: Increasing efficiency reduces particulates and CO2 and SO2 emission
GAS CLEAN-UP GAS TURBINE H R S G STEAM TURBINE GT POWER STACK ST POWER 2 BLOCKS IN COAL GASIFICATION PLANT CLEAN FUEL GAS 3 BLOCKS IN COMBINED CYCLE POWER PLANT STEAM GAS EXHAUST WHAT IS IGCC NG OIL COAL GASIFICATION
China-New IGCC Plant
Combined cycle – India is quite good in this for newer plants BHEL, Siemens-Alstom, GE
New Power Sources Solar Wind
Solar Thermal-Electric – US leads
Solar Heat: Archimedes burning Roman Fleet in Syracuse harbor: Why not power from heat? Painting From Galleria Uffizi, Florence
World’s largest operating solar- electric plant 64 MW (in Nevada)- solar thermal electric Each shiny tube is a linear parabolic trough focusing sunlight on a tube- heat up water to produce steam-run a turbine
Europe planning to set up large plants in North Africa, transmit power through Strait of Gibraltar
India – Exceptionally good conditions in Kutch Solar intensity excellent Proximity to cooling water Can be 100,000 MW+
Schematic diagram of a solar cell (Photovoltaic – PV- device)
Solar Photovoltaic Energy Conversion China leads- world’s largest PV manufacturer Market ~ 8-9 GW in 2010 That is 8-9 nuclear plants/year
China and the world – PV production
China’s target for solar PV 2 GW in GW in 2020 India likely to be ~ 1GW in ~2014
India- PV Gujarat is leading, ~716 MW planned
Li Batteries – Hybrid cars BYD Plug-In hybrid – China China beat everyone, including Toyota – first plug-in hybrid Li battery pack for Nissan Leaf
Li battery market share
China: Wind and solar resource
Comparison of wind capacity: China plans 200 GW of wind by 2020
US-Major investment in Li batteries- wants 25% share $500 Million + from government A123 systems Large plants being set up for the hybrid car market A123 – started with $100k grant in 2000 from US govt., Now a multi- billion$ company Where is India? Not there at all.
Hybrid cars for India? Where are they? Perfect for India- recharge every time you brake. How much saving in petrol? Why not diesel hybrids? Where are the Li battery manufacturers?
Biofuels - future Not food based Synthetic biology CO2 + sunlight + water + bacteria = alcohol Cellulosic conversion – learn the secret of termites – wood waste into sugars and alcohol
Synthetic biology in the US (US leads the world) H from water using cyanobacteria: J.Craig Venter Institute (Human genome fame scientist) Synthetic e-coli for conversion Of cellulosic waste into biodiesel- UC Berkeley
US Biofuels program – advanced technology $ 500 Million – UC Berkeley and Illinois from BP for synthetic biology $125 million – CalTech + Berkeley from US government for solar fuels Exxon- major program($600 million) with Venter:Synthetic Genomics on fuel from algae Conoco-Phillips : $25 MM at Iowa on cellulosic ethanol Where is India’s comparable investment? Where is Reliance? What would $ 1 billion invested in bio- technology (instead of a home) have done for India?
China – Synthetic biofuels Not there in biological research yet
Status of PV R&D US leads in inorganic thin films, in organic PV China leads in manufacture of crystalline Si, but not in R&D Costs coming down very rapidly India is nowhere in the research field – IIT-B just started a major PV project, and IIT- Kanpur has a major organic PV project We are decades behind the U.S. China making massive investments in R&D
Critical Research Directions for India Solar Thermal Power Plants Efficient plug-in hybrid cars IGCC coal plants Solar PV with concentrators Synthetic biology for biofuels Long-life batteries Efficient Forestry India is far behind China on the technology front in energy – we are heading for a major economic And environmental disaster- Hard science and engineering are needed- not financial engineering