Presentation on theme: "Recording Everything THINGS THAT THINK, SEE, FEEL AND DO… Recording and being able to retrieve and use everything I’ve ever read (written), and also heard."— Presentation transcript:
Recording Everything THINGS THAT THINK, SEE, FEEL AND DO… Recording and being able to retrieve and use everything I’ve ever read (written), and also heard (said), and seen (participated in or presented) Vanguard Group 11 November 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation
Recording Everything Vannevar Bush c1945 There will always be plenty of things to compute... With millions of people doing complicated things. memex … stores all one’s books, records, and communications, and... can be consulted with speed and flexibility Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia Speech to text Head mounted camera, dry photography
My project … putting my legacy and future bits in Cyberspace Personal paper documents – Books (encoded by CMU), papers, articles, memos, notes, , notebooks, drawings Encode video and audio lectures Current electronic media – , files, papers, photos (now digital) – voice notes and records Would like to capture photos and slides
Recording Everything The other side… getting the bits out of Cyberspace Retrieval is the next challenge – Database(s) – Indexers (Magnifi, Virage, etc.) – Icons so we can help the computer Being able to see and use electronic bits as well as paper bits will have to wait until display technology appears
Recording Everything Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen Documentsimagecompressed#/GBy page or fax100 K4K10K;250K business card5 K500200K;2M snapshot3 M K10, page book25 M1-2 M 40;750 Human data-types /hr/day/4Yr /lifetime read text, few pictures200 K M/G G speech 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G 3.6 M 40 M/G1.2 T Video comp. 50KbPOTS 22 M.25 G/T 25 T video comp. 200Kb VHS 90 M1 G/T100 T video comp. 4.3Mb DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P
Recording Everything Technology: getting, storing, and finding those bits The Source: bits on paper, computers, video/audiotape, telephones, cameras, etc. Capturing & encoding – 1D (Word) & 2 D documents, photos, etc. – voice – video Recognizing when necessary… MIPS help OCR is almost as fast as reading the file Storing … disks are getting cheaper Organizing… databases are many and fragmented Retrieving however possible
Recording Everything Capture and encoding
Recording Everything HP Digital Sender… color document scanner
Recording Everything Sony voice notes recorder…
Recording Everything Evolving cameras to capture images and voice notes
Recording Everything A word about storage… CDs hold 6 “near VHS quality” videos (300 Kbps)
Recording Everything Coexisting with Paper Paper is the best GUI (screen dump) without peer – portable: read anywhere, anyway, anytime – contrast ratio – resolution (3-30x screens) – form factor, weight – ubiquity, cost, infrastructure – with good OCR, it is a loss-less medium For many documents, paper is very expensive – large and multiple documents are heavy – hard to transmit – difficult to store (only access is via people) – computer cannot access them Goal: use paper as a loss-less bit medium
Recording Everything Computer-Paper Co-existence Goals for encoding paper for the computer – Handling must be as easy as discarding it – Input, Identify, OCR, Index, save, and retrieve in every possible context – Interface: unobtrusive and humane Put all documents in Cyberspace – Ubiquitous scanners are key! – Totally eliminate the need for copiers – Totally eliminate the need for file cabinets
Recording Everything Paper to handle
Recording Everything 8. What type of information do you file?
Recording Everything What paper must we handle? legal & commercial scraps e.g. bills, receipts, checks, notices. Must these be originals? copies of documents e.g. stocks, signature pages, and licenses. Originals stored elsewhere. large documents that are OCR’d e.g. contracts. Originals or copies may also be elsewhere. forms that require signatures, often via fax letters (rapidly diminishing), given clipped articles e.g. graphs, journals, book pages OCR'd technical reports with figs held as images non-critical document e.g. policies, warrantees business cards en route to on line address book photographs and slides. legacy presentations?
Recording Everything Atoms vs electrons/flux/photons for financial bits Atoms (mass)Electrons, etc. (massless) moneydatabase, smart card, credit card, debit card statementsweb access bills / checksbill present / check free couponscyber-coupons stockdatabase, web statements, reportsweb access, +company infor, analyst reports, etc. private placementsweb access, trade confirmationdirect trades mail votingon line voting
Recording Everything New or old money… it’s just bits Prepaid Credit Cash Check ATM /credit Prepaid
Recording Everything Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!
Recording Everything Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace
Recording Everything Buying & selling stock: what a pain! Faxes? ( Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.)
Recording Everything Transfer document
Recording Everything Electronic bill presentation
Personal files Clipped articles etc. 2 weeks mail Family memorabilia
Recording Everything A Lawsuit Lawsuit Paper in process Supercomputers vendor file Startups to look at
Gordon’s Output Computer support stuff Gordon’s Output 4 files
Recording Everything Storage I.e. disks and databases …
Recording Everything Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta A novel A letter LoC (text) All Tapes A Movie LoC (image) All Photos LoC (sound + cinema) All Information! All Disks
Recording Everything Sizes of various information stores that an individual might need Gigabyte1,000,000, ,000 books 10,000,000,000disk, 4 years of read text 300,000,000,000lifetime of read text Terabyte1,000,000,000,000lifetime of coded speech 25,000,000,000,000lifetime of video, low Q 100,000,000,000,000lifetime of Petabyte1,000,000,000,000,000lifetime of hi-Q video
Recording Everything Sizes of various information stores Gigabyte1,000,000,000shelf of scanned paper, large book stack 10,000,000,000movie, large disk 200,000,000,0002 floor library, videotape Terabyte1,000,000,000,000million volume library 20,000,000,000,000Lib of Congress, disk array Petabyte1,000,000,000,000,000a national library 15,000,000,000,000,00disk production 1995
Recording Everything Storing … disks are inexpensive, but what is the cost to find it? Disks make storage very inexpensive Which database? – Web pages will a page be there forever? – Personal file system with its folders – Outlook with its folders and contacts – Rolladex – Visioneer image database All of these have to be indexed!
Aids for Retrieval
Color B&W Brightness Contrast Volume Speech-Music Meta Information Image Recognition for Objects Speech Recognition Image Recognition, Lexical Cues Transcripts Close Caption Lexical Analysis Context Relevance Viewing Previews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork Magnifi’s SmartMedia
Recording Everything Survey of users in various size corporations
Recording Everything A survey of attitudes toward paper (8/97) in various sized Co’s. >3,000 users (admin. and profs.) 1/6 Response Personal47% Work 52 % More 10,000+ employee company people choose to fill out survey for work (63%)… response evenly split among companies. Time (hours/month) filing Responses: (scale 1-7, 7 strongly agree)
Recording Everything 6. If you need to send a document to another person, what do you do most often? Use the Original 15% Make a Copy 82% Most likely to make a copy: – Self employed87% – Companies of >10,000 91%
Recording Everything 8. What type of information do you file?
Recording Everything #1 I often wish I had an electronic (computer) copy of my paper documents. – Average 5.06 – Highest for companies of >1K people~5.4 – Lowest for companies of people4.67
Recording Everything #2, 3 My filing system takes too much space. – Average 4.89 – Admins care most at 5.32 – followed by people in companies of 1,000+ employees ~5.16 My most recent documents tend to be my most important. – Average 4.68 – Admins highest 5.08
Recording Everything #4, 5, 6 The effort I spend filing is worth it. – Average 4.51 It is easy for me to find a document when I need it. – Average 4.38 I spend more time looking for a document than I do filing a document. – Average 4.05
Recording Everything #7,8 I am satisfied with my filing system. – Average 3.99 – Admins 4.27 – unemployed are most satisfied4.71 My papers are organized in such a manner that it represents actions I need to take, or part of my to-do list. – Average 3.92
Recording Everything 9, 10 I clean out my filing system on a regular basis. – Average 3.4 I frequently lose documents. – Average 3.05 – Companies (1K-10K lose more) 3.43
Recording Everything 18. I would file my paper documents on a computer to … make it easier to find documents5.73 save space 5.49 better preserve my documents5.46 make it easier to distribute documents 5.33 be able to have access to documents on a portable computer or network5.03 make it easier to track routing4.91
Recording Everything 19. I would NOT file my paper documents on a computer because… file formats might change3.81 I don’t have the equipment 3.50 documents are less secure3.27 filing would take more time than it saved3.11 computer documents are harder to read3.10 I might lose a document2.89 documents take longer to access2.78 it is harder to control distribution2.68 applications are too hard to learn / use2.63 documents are harder to find2.59 documents are harder to share2.42
Recording Everything 20. I would not trust my important documents or files on a computer because of… possible network failure and/or reliability4.63 possible disk failure (permanent loss)4.07 a chance that someone might delete a file3.80 a chance that I might delete a file 3.32 application reliability3.29 general computer reliability3.23 general distrust. (can't pinpoint a reason)2.66
Recording Everything 21. Do you file documents on a computer? 75% Yes 22. Do you file any documents on a computer that used to be on paper? e.g, scan the document into the computer… says nothing about scanning though – 26% Yes – Admins, 1, ,999, < 10~33% – 10,000+, ~20%
Recording Everything Start now Take the oath: put it in Cyberspace Get rid of copiers Get rid of 1/2 of the filing cabinets
Recording Everything I would be interested in a computer application that helps me organize my paper documents and files. Average 5.49 No huge fluctuation, except for the not employed at 4.79.
Recording Everything The end
Recording Everything Now how do you find or use the rich information Need the system to: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporation’s IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.
Recording Everything Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen Human data-types /hr/day (/4yr)/lifetime read text, few pictures200 K M/G G speech 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G 3.6 M 40 M/G1.2 T stills 200 K2 M/G60 G video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M.25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M1 G/T100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G20 G/T 1 P
Recording Everything Library of Congress bits... Scanned LC1PB assumes 6B pages 13M photos13TB 4M maps200TB 500K movies500TB 3.5M recordings2,000TB 5 Bpeople or 2 GB per person
Recording Everything Some Tera-Byte Databases Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta The Web: 1 TB of HTML TerraServer 1 TB of images Several other 1 TB (file) servers Hotmail: 7 TB of Sloan Digital Sky Survey: 40 TB raw, 2 TB cooked EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week) – 15 PB by 2007 Federal Clearing house: images of checks – 15 PB by 2006 (7 year history) Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program – 10 Exabytes (???!!)
Recording Everything Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta A novel A letter Library of Congress (text) All Disks All Tapes A Movie LoC (image) Info Capture You can record everything you see or hear or read. What would you do with it? How would you organize & analyze it? Video 8 PB/lifetime (10GB/h) Audio 30 TB (10KB/s) Read/write:8 GB (words) See:
Recording Everything 10X in 40 years (6% per year)
Recording Everything Library Volume Growth 10X in 150 years
Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year for processor & memory chips, and disks 1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E Secondary Mem. ie. disks 20%= Teraops = terabytes of prim. Mem. 40%= Petaops 60%= Exaops
Recording Everything Fujitsu 42” plasma panel
Recording Everything The Cyber Admin or the prosthetic memory… When we can store everything we’ve: read/written, heard/said, seen/acted, plus physical parameters.
Recording Everything Administrivia, paper and phone coexistence With no administrative support, we are our own administrative assistants, secretaries, and gofers. Forms and travel arrangements Calendar management Paper handling and its database – Identification, input, indexing, and interface – Interface to message management database Message management database – , voic , fax, contacts, calendar – phone and videophone must be “on line” (s) Personal database(s) management, a major time sink
Recording Everything Coexisting with the telephone Overall integration with the computer Answering machine, recorder, and transcriber And database with transcription, keywords, and voice “Wildfire” it … finds me ICQ capability for both computer and phone
Recording Everything What does Cyber Admin do? Captures the creation of all personal/professional information Stores and organizes Retrieval is the challenge – recalling readings, conversations, presentations, images – helps the “guardian angel” What are the apps? when we can do this?
Recording Everything Virage Video Cataloger
Recording Everything Intrastructure
Recording Everything SOHO (small office, home office) network computing environment NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps Phone POTS (legacy services) *NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.... LAN PC NC*PC... Phone
Recording Everything The Guardian Angel … a case of having bits about us and how to help us plus being able to communicate
Recording Everything Your husband just died, … here’s his black box
Recording Everything Steve Mann in Cyberspace
Recording Everything BAN, PAN or whatever for people networks Temperature monitoring with the flu Saved me from a heart attack Where is the person, exactly… a baby sitter Let’s interact… ala Barney
Recording Everything Libretto,.5mm pencil PCS; Pilot Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife Compass; altimeter Not shown: ECG; GPS;
Recording Everything Steve Mann in Cyberspace
Recording Everything Time and Motion Study Where does the time go? Can anything be parallelized? Is there an app to help? – Will the gain be worth the pain? What is likely to be a fruitless and/or over- worked area e.g. tele- collaboration?
Recording Everything Time and motion of teleworker (me) context & “doing” * building, deciding, interacting, presenting, testing, thinking, problem-solving, writing, Context Microsoft Families – Wife – Friend – Children & grandchildren – TCM GB Corp – Startup – Consultant-at-large Doing sleeping, feeding,traveling goofing-off, interacting, vacationing supporting infrastructure administriving info- and cyber-grazing, learning communicating WORKING?*
Recording Everything Group Structure of Interaction solo pair small group of 3-6 group gropes & formal meetings whole organization or organization-at- large world