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NUEPA – CSF Media Workshop Ashish Dhawan 30 th October 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "NUEPA – CSF Media Workshop Ashish Dhawan 30 th October 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 NUEPA – CSF Media Workshop Ashish Dhawan 30 th October 2012

2 Over the last 20 years, technology in education has not been very effective… But, the next decade may turn out to be very different.

3 What is changing? Disrupting Class Customization Can every child get her own playlist? 1 Motivation & Engagement Is there a child who doesn’t like digital content? 2 Democratization Can we "Lift the Floor" for all children? 3

4 Potential of Personalized Learning Textbooks Sequential Annual Tests Minimal Peer to Peer Learning Teacher Digital Content Adaptive Instant Feedback Collaborative Coach One Size Fits All Personalized

5 “Go” to Harvard and MIT without being admitted… Disruption has begun in Higher-Ed and Test –Prep Coursera provides online courses from the best universities for free with more than a million enrolments Udacity provides university-level education which is high-quality and low cost Grockit is the world’s fastest growing test prep service which uses social networking to make kids in an adaptive and personalized environment Benchprep is world’s first and only cross-platform test prep course company used by 200,000 students EdX offers free courses from MIT, Harvard, Berkeley and Texas Western Governors University is an accredited online university offering online bachelor’s and master’s degree programs with more than 30,000 students Source: Company Websites

6 K-12 Ed-Tech Market Map Source: CSF Analysis

7 ICT Source: Educomp

8 The impact of use of ICT on learning outcomes is inconclusive Overview Teacher tool with interactive multimedia content Increasingly available in regional languages Advantages include easy-to-explain content, in-built assessments etc. >20% penetration in the target market size of 1 lac schools Capex of Rs. 2.5 – 3 lac per classroom but low cost projectors may change that Students are charged Rs. 120-150 pm as part of the fee Globally, the impact of ICT use on learning outcomes is unclear Challenges No third party assessment of impact of use on learning outcomes in India Teacher training has been ignored and hence utilization is low Little differentiation on content PlayersSchoolsFocus 12,000Diversified 6,000Tier 2 & 3 3,000Diversified 2000Diversified 400Tier 3 & 4 NA 300Tier 3 & 4 NA ICT Private Schools - Market Landscape * ICT could become an effective learning tool if the issues around teacher training and quality of content are resolved Source: Industry discussions, World Bank Info Dev, CSF research and analysis * Only private schools. These estimates are based on our current understanding and the actual numbers may vary

9 Content eBooks Source: Worldreader

10 Digital textbooks are changing the way our students learn eBooks crossed hardcover sales in Adult Category in Q1FY12 in the US Increasing e-book penetration: US (16%), UK (17%), Korea (12%) and India (2%) Digital textbooks first move into higher-ed - achieve 5% penetration in the US Governments in Korea, US and China push for use of digital textbooks in schools NCERT offers free digital textbooks for Grade 1- 12 in Hindi, English and Urdu 1000 books in a single device Interactive and rich content - Text + videos + animation + audio Cheaper than printed books Instantly updated Ability to highlight, notes & search Lighter backpacks Kindle eBook reader Digital bookstore with over 1 million paid titles and 2.5 million free iPad tablet Digital bookstore with 1.5 million titles Nexus tablet Bookstore with millions of free books Nook eBook reader Digital bookstore with over 3 million titles Kobo eBook reader Digital bookstore with nearly 3 million titles Sony eBook reader Digital bookstore Disruption led by 6 players with innovative hardware and redefined distribution Disruption in publishing market Superior value proposition India market is nascent with some early steps towards digitization. Drop in prices of tablets will the key growth driver Source: AAP, Bowker Market Research, Company websites, CSF Analysis

11 Content Paid Digital Content Source: LearnNext

12 Digital is taking over traditional learning models Growth in paid digital content category will be driven by demand for more curriculum linked content by students and parents Business model in India Supplemental curriculum linked content for students and teachers Effective tool for personalized learning Key reasons for adoption: easy access, freedom to choose, interactive, curriculum linked and in-built assessments Multiple channels of adoption (internet and offline)– Cloud, USB, SD Card and CD ROM Marketing directly to consumers is tough - Conversion rate is ~2% Challenges Quality of content needs to improve Competition from free content Low device penetration SchoolHome Blended Learning Schools Virtual Schools Supplemental Advanced Language Test Prep Florida Virtual School K-12 ICT B2C Players Paid Digital Content ICT – Extension of school B2C – Only students/parents Publishers – Bundling content Not present in India Source: Industry discussions, CSF analysis Note: Indicative list of players

13 Content Open Educational Resources (OER) Source: Sree Karpakavalli Vidyalaya Middle School (Students using Khan Academy)

14 High-quality free content is increasingly becoming available 3400 videos including K-12 math 400 million interactive problems 200 million views Salman Khan, the most watched teacher in the world, is available on Youtube Free K-12 digital textbooks for Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) 10,000+ resources 17+ million views High quality, easy access and FREE Licensed under Creative Commons which can allow reuse, revise, remix and redistribution Platforms which curate and share have emerged - Creative Commons, Curriki etc. Increasing integration of curriculum linked content in classrooms Launched in June 2012 Offers 200 online courses from 33 universities including Stanford, Princeton, Brown, Penn, Columbia etc. 1.6 million registered students in 190 countries Largest publisher of free and open textbooks Free courses from MIT, Harvard, Berkeley and Univ of Texas Nascent market in India - focus on translation into local languages, potential to make content using best teachers in the system Wide offline distribution possible as SD Cards can be inserted into phones and tablets IT for Change pilot in Karnataka to train govt. school teachers in using OER Source: Company websites, CSF analysis

15 Content Apps Source: Apple App Store

16 There is an App for everything… Point solutions which provide supplemental content that engage kids for a short time 80,000 educational apps are available. Mainly for early literacy, math, geography etc. 10x increase in educational app downloads from 25m in 2009 to 270m in 2011 87% education apps are free; paid apps have an average cost of $3.3 iOS and Android have emerged as two major app platforms Need to aggregate and curate relevant apps as the number of available apps has increased Monetization of apps is still a challenge Major app platforms 550,000 apps for iPad, iPhone and iTouch 21 categories including education More than 30 billion downloads 600,000 apps for android devices More than 20 billion downloads More than 500 million active device users 90,000 apps for blackberry mobiles More than 3 billion downloads 88,000 apps for windows based mobiles Source: Company websites, McKinsey mEducation Report …and 87% of these are available for free

17 Assessments Source:

18 No standardized assessment = No accountability No standardized assessments till Grade 10 Less than 2% the size of the US market (>$2.7bn) Currently only elite private schools use regular standardized assessments Why low-stake standardized tests? Monitor and evaluate national education system Provide feedback to teachers, parents and children Provide information on trends in learning outcomes New digital assessments models are emerging – GoToTest, EI Detailed Assessment tool etc. Strong growth potential as various states push education reforms and accountability initiatives. Formative assessments market to grow with introduction of CCE Increasing device penetration will move Assessments towards a digital centric model (Think, CAT!) India Assessments Landscape Source: OECD, The Parthenon Group Industry discussions US Assessment Market 2009-10 $1.27bn $1.49bn

19 Platforms Source: Fedena

20 Models which efficiently manage data and learning are now emerging Overview Platforms enable creation, sharing and collaboration of content: Student: Student performance data, learning management and student information (SIS) Teachers: Teacher sharing and collaboration Most of these platforms are device & OS agnostic and provide offline access Global market for LMS / SIS is well developed; Indian market is nascent and fragmented IT@Schools in Kerala is using an open SIS platform across 15,000 schools covering 7 million students Emergence of several learning management platforms such as Edutor, AcrossWorld etc. TES UK has 500,000 free resources used by 2.1 million teachers. Recently launched in India Edmodo is a social learning network for teachers and students with more than 10 million registered users End-to-end platforms are emerging which integrate learning platform with student information, integrate assessments etc. Source: CSF Analysis Platform Landscape TypeDetailsPlayers Data Platforms Organize and analyze student and teacher data, both for admin and performance metrics Traditionally: school schedules, report cards etc. Learning Platforms Facilitate management of learning process Traditionally: Class registers, study groups etc.

21 Devices Source: The Jakarta Post

22 Tablet are becoming the preferred form factor for personalized learning Much cheaper than laptops, small size, portable and touch screen Emerging as a major form factor in education: Digitized textbooks Interactive apps for education Viewing videos / animated content Fragmented market with 90 players by Q2 FY13 Central (Aakash) and State Government (UP, Goa, Karnataka) push International initiatives Turkey Faith project – 15m tablets sold to across 40,000 schools in 4 years Peru OLPC – More than 850,000 laptops distributed. However, program has shown no improvement in learning outcomes Thailand One Tablet Per Child Program - Almost 900,000 tablets ordered in June 2012 Improving price performance will make tablets more affordable and the device of choice for personalized learning Source: IDC, CyberMedia Research, CSF Analysis 2010-16F CAGR: 139% India Tablet Market Landscape As the Peru OLPC experiment has shown, a device must be bundled with appropriate content to make it an effective learning tool

23 Mobile is emerging as a useful device for English language learning India is the 2 nd largest mobile market in the world with 919m subscribers in March 2012 Strong application in English language learning, assessments, teacher training and distance learning Airtel is partnering with content providers such as Britannica and LearnNext to offer supplemental content, encyclopaedias, and educational games People in China, Bangladesh, Korea and Indonesia are learning English through SMS and audio lessons using mobiles Urban Planet Mobile has over 100,000 subscribers in Indonesia BBC Janala aims to teach English to 25 million by 2017 in Bangladesh Vodafone pilot for Math homework using mobiles in South Africa India Smartphone Landscape Source: TRAI, McKinsey mEducation Report, Research and Markets Smartphone sales CAGR: 60% Overall mobile sales CAGR: 13% Smartphone is the largest growing segment with expected CAGR of 60% till 2015 Entry level smartphones cost less than Rs. 4,000

24 Blended Learning Source: ITS Learning

25 Blended learning has the potential to disrupt the traditional school design International models Why Who all are doing this Trends Why Blended Learning? Time: Learning is no longer restricted to the school day or the school year Place: Learning is no longer restricted to the walls of the classroom Path: Learning is no longer restricted to the pedagogy used by the teacher. Interactive and adaptive software allows students to learn in a method that is customized to their needs. Pace: Learning is no longer restricted to the pace of an entire classroom of students. Source: Digital Learning Now!, Innosight Institute

26 Rocketship Education Lab Rotation Model Concept Students rotate on a fixed schedule or at the teacher’s discretion among locations on the brick- and-mortar campus within a given course or subject each day At least one of these spaces is a learning lab for predominantly online learning, while the additional classroom(s) house other learning modalities Case Study Rocketship Education provides education to 1,328 urban kids in K-5 in San Jose, California Students learn 75% offline and 25% online in a learning lab. Each student attends one block of Math/Science, one block of Learning Lab, and two blocks of Literacy/Social Studies each day Rocketship Schools are among the top 15 for academic performance among low-income schools in California. Results in $500,000 savings per school in traditional school expenditures that Rocketship reinvests in others parts of its model Source: Classifying K-12 Blended Learning and The Rise of K-12 Blended Learning, Innosight Institute Lab Rotation Model, Rocketship Education

27 Carpe Diem Collegiate High School and Middle School Individual-Rotation model Concept Students rotate on an individually customized, fixed schedule among learning modalities, at least one of which is online learning within a given course or subject each day An algorithm or teacher sets individual student schedules Case Study Carpe Diem Collegiate High School and Middle School provides education to 273 students in Grade 6-12 in Yuma, Arizona The school has 300 individual cubicles and computers. Students rotate throughout the day between online activities in the learning center and face-to-face classroom instruction, where a teacher re-teaches or enhances the material introduced online. Each rotation lasts 55 minutes. Students complete the online/face-to- face cycle 2 – 3 times a day In 2010, CDCHS ranked first in its county in student performance in math and reading and ranked among the top 10 percent of Arizona charter schools Individual-Rotation model, Carpe Diem Collegiate High School and Middle School Source: Classifying K-12 Blended Learning and The Rise of K-12 Blended Learning, Innosight Institute

28 Education technology is not a silver bullet… Cautiously optimistic ―Historically, impact of use on learning outcomes is unclear and open to debate ―Peru OLPC: Research indicates no evidence that the program increased learning in Math or Language ―Many initiatives have put technology before education ―Early signs to show that this may be changing ―JPAL study on Pratham’s computer-assisted learning program for math revealed that math scores increased by 0.47 standard deviation ―What works clearinghouse cites various studies which show improvement in math and reading skills in kids who were taught using technology Source: Poverty Action Lab, World Bank Ed-Tech Blog, Inter-American Development Bank Report, What Works Clearinghouse, CSF Analysis

29 …but the next decade may turn out to be different EdTech environment will change in next 3 – 5 years ―High performance tablets for less than $50 ―Ubiquitous 4G network ―Content explosion ―Mapped to curriculum ―Integrated platforms with assessments ―Community and collaboration Source: Poverty Action Lab, World Bank Ed-Tech Blog, Inter-American Development Bank Report, What Works Clearinghouse, CSF Analysis

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