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Mechanics of Futures Markets Chapter 2. 1 FORWARDS AND FUTURES The CONTRACTS The MARKETS PRICING FORWARDS and FUTURES Speculation Arbitrage Hedging.

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Presentation on theme: "Mechanics of Futures Markets Chapter 2. 1 FORWARDS AND FUTURES The CONTRACTS The MARKETS PRICING FORWARDS and FUTURES Speculation Arbitrage Hedging."— Presentation transcript:

1 Mechanics of Futures Markets Chapter 2

2 1 FORWARDS AND FUTURES The CONTRACTS The MARKETS PRICING FORWARDS and FUTURES Speculation Arbitrage Hedging

3 2 CASH OR SPOT MARKET: THE MARKET FOR IMMEDIATE DELIVERY AND PAYMENT GAS STATION, GROCERY STORE, DEPARTMENT STORE SELLER BUYER Delivers CommodityAccept Commodity Receives paymentPays The SELLER is said to be SHORT The BUYER is said to be LONG

4 3 A FORWARD MARKET THE MARKET FOR DEFERRED DELIVERY AND DEFFERED PAYMENT. SHORT =commit to sell LONG = commit to buy THE TWO PARTIES MAKE A CONTRACT THAT DETERMINES THE DELIVERY AND PAYMENT PLACE AND TIME IN THE FUTURE.

5 4 A FORWARD IS A CONTRACT IN WHICH ONE PARTY (the long) COMMITS TO BUY AND THE OTHER PARTY (the short) COMMITS TO SELL A SPECIFIED AMOUNT OF AN AGREED UPON COMMODITY FOR A PREDETERMINED PRICE ON A SPECIFIC DATE IN THE FUTURE. Forwards are traded OTC

6 5 FORWARDS ARE TRADED ON THE OTC: Credit risk Operational risk Liquidity risk

7 6 1.Credit Risk: Does the other party have the means to pay? 2.Operational Risk: Will the other party deliver the commodity? Will the other party take delivery? Will the other party pay?

8 7 3.Liquidity Risk. Liquidity = the speed with which investors can buy or sell securities (commodities) in the market. In case either party wishes to get out of its side of the contract, what are the obstacles? How to find another counterparty? It may not be easy to do that. Even if you find someone who is willing to take your side of the contract, the other party may not agree.

9 8 The exchanges understood that there will exist no efficient futures markets unless the above problems are resolved. So they created a non profit corporation: the CLEARINGHOUSE In order to manage the futures trading

10 9 CLEARING MEMBERS NONCLEARING MEMEBRS THE EXCHANGE CORPORATION THE CLEARINGHOUSE Futures Commission Merchants CLIENTES THE CLEARINGHOUSE PLACE IN THE MARKET

11 10 The clearinghouse is a non profit corporation. It gives every trading party an absolute guarantee of the completion of its side of the contract

12 11 A FUTURES is A STANDARDIZED FORWARD TRADED ON AN ORGANIZED EXCHANGE Under the CLEARINGHOUSE RULES and REGULATIONS

13 12 The Clearinghouse guarantee: To: The LONG:will be able to take delivery and pay the agreed upon price. The SHORTwill be able to deliver and receive the agreed upon price.

14 13 A. BUYER = LONG 100, June crude oil futures B.SELLER = SHORT 100, June crude oil futures FOR: $90/ bbl A BUY {CLERINGHOUSE} B SELL

15 14 A BUY CH SELL B CLEARINGHOUSE GUARANTEE to BOTH: To LONG (SHORT) If you maintain your futures position open until delivery time in June, and wish to take delivery (deliver) of the 100,000 barrels of oil for $9,000,000 as per your contract, you will encounter NO PROBLEM. 1.THERE IS NO CREDIT or PERFORMANCE PROBLEM. 2.LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS DISAPPEAR!

16 15 A FUTURES is A STANDARDIZED FORWARD TRADED ON AN ORGANIZED EXCHANGE. STANDARDIZATION THE COMMODITY TYPE AND QUALITY THE QUANTITY PRICE QUOTES DELIVERY DATES DELIVERY PROCEDURES

17 16 NYMEX.Light, Sweet Crude Oil Trading Unit Futures: 1,000 U.S. barrels (42,000 gallons). Options: One NYMEX Division light, sweet crude oil futures contract. Price Quotation Futures and Options: Dollars and cents per barrel. Trading Hours Futures and Options: Open outcry trading is conducted from 10:00 A.M. until 2:30 P.M. After hours futures trading is conducted via the NYMEX ACCESS® internet-based trading platform beginning at 3:15 P.M. on Mondays through Thursdays and concluding at 9:30 A.M. the following day. On Sundays, the session begins at 7:00 P.M. All times are New York time. Trading Months Futures: 30 consecutive months plus long-dated futures initially listed 36, 48, 60, 72, and 84 months prior to delivery. Additionally, trading can be executed at an average differential to the previous day's settlement prices for periods of two to 30 consecutive months in a single transaction. These calendar strips are executed during open outcry trading hours. Options: 12 consecutive months, plus three long-dated options at 18, 24, and 36 months out on a June/December cycle.

18 17 Minimum Price Fluctuation Futures and Options: $0.01 (1¢) per barrel ($10.00 per contract). Maximum Daily Price Fluctuation Futures: Initial limits of $3.00 per barrel are in place in all but the first two months and rise to $6.00 per barrel if the previous day's settlement price in any back month is at the $3.00 limit. In the event of a $7.50 per barrel move in either of the first two contract months, limits on all months become $7.50 per barrel from the limit in place in the direction of the move following a one-hour trading halt. Options: No price limits. Last Trading Day Futures: Trading terminates at the close of business on the third business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the delivery month. If the 25th calendar day of the month is a non- business day, trading shall cease on the third business day prior to the last business day preceding the 25th calendar day. Options: Trading ends three business days before the underlying futures contract.

19 18 Exercise of Options By a clearing member to the Exchange clearinghouse not later than 5:30 P.M., or 45 minutes after the underlying futures settlement price is posted, whichever is later, on any day up to and including the option's expiration. Options Strike Prices Twenty strike prices in increments of $0.50 (50¢) per barrel above and below the at-the-money strike price, and the next ten strike prices in increments of $2.50 above the highest and below the lowest existing strike prices for a total of at least 61 strike prices. The at-the-money strike price is nearest to the previous day's close of the underlying futures contract. Strike price boundaries are adjusted according to the futures price movements. Delivery F.O.B. seller's facility, Cushing, Oklahoma, at any pipeline or storage facility with pipeline access to TEPPCO, Cushing storage, or Equilon Pipeline Co., by in-tank transfer, in-line transfer, book-out, or inter- facility transfer (pumpover).

20 19 Delivery Period All deliveries are rateable over the course of the month and must be initiated on or after the first calendar day and completed by the last calendar day of the delivery month. Alternate Delivery Procedure (ADP) An alternate delivery procedure is available to buyers and sellers who have been matched by the Exchange subsequent to the termination of trading in the spot month contract. If buyer and seller agree to consummate delivery under terms different from those prescribed in the contract specifications, they may proceed on that basis after submitting a notice of their intention to the Exchange. Exchange of Futures for, or in Connection with, Physicals (EFP) The commercial buyer or seller may exchange a futures position for a physical position of equal quantity by submitting a notice to the exchange. EFPs may be used to either initiate or liquidate a futures position.

21 20 Deliverable Grades Specific domestic crudes with 0.42% sulfur by weight or less, not less than 37° API gravity nor more than 42° API gravity. The following domestic crude streams are deliverable: West Texas Intermediate, Low Sweet Mix, New Mexican Sweet, North Texas Sweet, Oklahoma Sweet, South Texas Sweet. Specific foreign crudes of not less than 34° API nor more than 42° API. The following foreign streams are deliverable: U.K. Brent and Forties, and Norwegian Oseberg Blend, for which the seller shall receive a 30¢- per-barrel discount below the final settlement price; Nigerian Bonny Light and Colombian Cusiana are delivered at 15¢ premiums; and Nigerian Qua Iboe is delivered at a 5¢ premium. Inspection Inspection shall be conducted in accordance with pipeline practices. A buyer or seller may appoint an inspector to inspect the quality of oil delivered. However, the buyer or seller who requests the inspection will bear its costs and will notify the other party of the transaction that the inspection will occur.

22 21 Position Accountability Limits Any one month/all months: 20,000 net futures, but not to exceed 1,000 in the last three days of trading in the spot month. Margin Requirements Margins are required for open futures or short options positions. The margin requirement for an options purchaser will never exceed the premium. Trading Symbols Futures: CL Options: LO

23 22 CBOT Corn Futures

24 23 NYMEX Copper Futures Trading Unit25,000 pounds. Price QuotationCents per pound. For example, 75.80¢ per pound. Trading HoursOpen outcry trading is conducted from 8:10 A.M. until 1:00 P.M. After-hours futures trading is conducted via the NYMEX ACCESS® Trading MonthsTrading is conducted for delivery during the current calendar month and the next 23 consecutive calendar months. Minimum PricePrice changes are registered in multiples of five one Fluctuation hundredths of one cent ($0.0005, or 0.05¢) per pound, equal to $12.50 per contract. A fluctuation of one cent ($0.01 or 1¢) is equal to $250.00 per contract.

25 24 Maximum DailyInitial price limit, based upon the preceding day's Price Fluctuation settlement price is $0.20 (20¢) per pound. Two minutes after either of the two most active months trades at the limit, trading in all months of futures and options will cease for a 15-minute period. Trading will also cease if either of the two active months is bid at the upper limit or offered at the lower limit for two minutes without trading. Trading will not cease if the limit is reached during the final 20 minutes of a day's trading. If the limit is reached during the final half hour of trading, trading will resume no later than 10 minutes before the normal closing time. When trading resumes after a cessation of trading, the price limits will be expanded by increments of 100%. Last Trading DayTrading terminates at the close of business on the third to last business day of the maturing delivery month.

26 25 DeliveryCopper may be delivered against the high- grade copper contract only from a warehouse in the United States licensed or designated by the Exchange. Delivery must be made upon a domestic basis; import duties or import taxes, if any, must be paid by the seller, and shall be made without any allowance for freight. Delivery PeriodThe first delivery day is the first business day of the delivery month; the last delivery day is the last business day of the delivery month. Margin RequirementsMargins are required for open futures and short options positions. The margin requirement for an options purchaser will never exceed the premium paid.

27 26 CBOT U.S. Treasury Bond Futures

28 27 CME Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index Futures

29 28 NIKKEI 225 Stock Index Futures

30 29 THE CLEARINGHOUSE sets MARGINS DAILY SETTLEMENT PRICES and regulates the DAILY MARKEING TO MARKET process.

31 30 MARGINS A margin is cash or marketable securities deposited by an investor with his or her broker The balance in the margin account is adjusted to reflect daily settlement Margins minimize the possibility of a loss through a default on a contract

32 31 MARGINS A MARGIN is an amount of money that must be deposited in a margin account in order to open any futures position. It is a “good will” deposit. The clearinghouse maintains a system of margin requirements from all traders, brokers and futures commercial merchants.

33 32 MARGINS. There are two types of margins: The initial margin: This is the amount that every trader must deposit with the broker in order to open an account; short or long. The maintenance (variable) margin: This is a minimum level of the trader’s equity in the margin account. If the trader’s equity falls below this level, the trader will receive a margin call requiring the trader to deposit more money and bring the account to its initial level. Otherwise, the account will be closed.

34 33 Most of the time, Initial margins are between 2% to 10% of the position value. Maintenance (variable) margin is usually around 70 - 80% of the initial margin. Example: a position of 10 CBT treasury bonds futures ($100,000 face value each) at a price of $75,000 each. The initial margin deposit of 5% of $750,000 is: $37,500. If the variable margin is 75%  Margin call if the amount in the margin account falls to $26,250.

35 34 Daily margin changes in the margin account: MARKING TO MARKET Every day, upon the market close, all profits and losses for that day must be SETTLED in cash. The capital in the margin accounts is used in order to settle the accounts, using the SETTLEMENT PRICES

36 35 A SETTLEMENT PRICE IS the average price of trades during the last several minutes of the trading day. Every day, when the markets close, SETTLEMENT PRICES for the futures of all products and for all months of delivery are set. They are then compared with the previous day settlement prices and the difference must be settled overnight!!!!!!!

37 36 Example 1: of a Futures Trade On JUN 5 an investor takes a long position in 2 NYMEX DEC gold futures. –contract size is 100 oz. –futures price is USD400/oz –margin requirement is 5%. USD2,000/contract (USD4,000 in total) –maintenance margin is 75%. USD1,500/contract (USD3,000 in total).

38 37 A Possible Outcome Table 2.1, Page 28 DailyCumulativeMargin FuturesGain AccountMargin Price(Loss) BalanceCall Day(US$) 400.004,000 5-Jun397.00(600) 3,4000.................. 13-Jun393.30(420) (1,340) 2,6601,340................. 19-Jun387.00(1,140) (2,600) 2,7401,260.................. 26-Jun392.30260 (1,540) 5,0600 + = 4,000 3,000 + = 4,000 <

39 38 Example 2: OPEN A LONG POSITION IN 10 JUNE CRUDE OIL FUTURES AT $98.50/bbl.VALUE: (10)(1,000)($98.50) = $985,000 INITIAL MARGIN = (.01)($985,000) = $9,850; VAR. MARGIN = 80%

40 39 OPEN A LONG POSITION IN 10 JUNE CRUDE OIL FUTURES AT $98.50/bbl.VALUE: (10)(1,000)($98.50) = $985,000 INITIAL MARGIN = (.01)($985,000) = $9,850; VAR. MARGIN = 80% 6,050/8,550 =.614 <.8 MARGIN CALL: SEND $3,800 TO MARGIN ACCOUNT TO BRING IT UP TO $9,850 DAY 4 $98.27 $982,700 + $1,500 $11,350

41 40 Example 3: A T-bill futures trading over time

42 41 $1M face value of 90-day T-bills. P = 1,000,000[1 - (1 – Q/100)(90/360)]. ** Initial Margin is assumed to be 5% of contract fee.

43 42 Delivery If a contract is not closed out before delivery, it usually settled by delivering the assets underlying the contract. A few contracts (for example, those on stock indices and Eurodollars) are settled in cash

44 43 Delivery The delivery decision is the prerogative of the SHORT. When there are alternatives about what is delivered, where it is delivered, and when it is delivered, the party with the short position chooses.

45 44 Delivery An example: the delivery sequence for T-bond futures on the CBT

46 45

47 46 Some Terminology Open interest: the total number of contracts outstanding = the number of long positions or the number of short positions Volume of trading: the number of trades in a specific contract in a day.

48 47 Pit Pulpit (Rostrum) FCM Phone Desk Messengers TRADING ON THE FLOOR

49 48 Day Trading: Open Outcry and Hand Signals. After Hours:Automated systems 1 2 3 4

50 49 Trading Forwards Vs Trading futures. Forwards: make a contract, Then:wait Then:delivery and payment

51 50 To understand the futures markets observe the following futures markets statistic: 97-98% of all the futures for all delivery months and for all underlying assets do not get to delivery!! Put differently: Only 2-3% do reach delivery.

52 51 A futures markets statistic: 97-98% of all the futures for all delivery months and for all underlying assets do not get to delivery!! What is the implication of this statistics?

53 52 CONCLUSIONS: Most traders close their positions before they get to delivery. Most traders do not open futures positions for business. Most futures are traded for financial purpose

54 53 Example 4: JUNE WTI FUTURE - 1,000 bbls PER CONTRACT DATE PARTY NUM PRICE PARTY NUM PRICE VOL OPEN INT Th.5.16 A:LONG 10 $90 CH B:SHORT 10 $90 10 10 5.16 C:LONG 25 $91 CH D:SHORT 25 $91 25 35 5.16 SETTLE $91 $9135 Fr.5.17 E:LONG 10 $92 CH A:SHORT 10 $92 10 35 5.17 SETTLE $92 $9210 Mo.5.20 D:LONG 25 $92.5 CH F:SHORT 25 $92.5 25 35 5.20 B:LONG 10 $91.5 CH C:SHORT 10 $91.5 10 25 5.20 SETTLE $91.5 $91.5 35 Tu.5.21 F:LONG 10 $91 CH E:SHORT 10 $91 10 15 5.21 SETTLE $90.5 $9110 We.5.22 F:LONG 10 $90 CH C:SHORT 10 $90 10 5 5.22 SETTLE $90 $9010

55 54 CLEARINGHOUSE ACCOUNTING A: LONG 10; SHORT 10 :OUT B: SHORT 10; LONG 10 :OUT C: LONG 25; SHORT 10; SHORT 10 C remains LONG 5. D: SHORT 25; LONG 25 :OUT E: LONG 10; SHORT 10 :OUT F: SHORT 25; LONG 10 : LONG 10 F remains SHORT 5.

56 55 5.23 F DECIDES TO DELIVER 5 CONTRACTS C WILL ACCEPTS DELIVERY OF 5 CONTRACTS 5 contracts = 5,000 barrels

57 56 CLEARINGHOUSE PROFIT/LOSS = ZERO* LONG PRICE SHORT PRICE TOTAL PROFIT A 10 $90 10 $92 $20,000 B 10 $91.5 10 $90 -$15,000 C 10 $91 10 $91.5 $5,000 10 $90 -$10,000 D 25 $92.5 25 $91 -$37,500 E 10 $92 10 $91 -$10,000 F 10 $91 25 $92.5 $15,000 10 $90 $25,000 TOTAL -$7,500 C TAKES DELIVERY 5 PAYS $91 : -$455,000 F DELIVERS 5 RECEIVES $92.5 : $462,500 $7,500 TOTAL 0 * This calculation accounts for buying and selling only. It does not account for cash movements resulting from the daily marking-to-market process.

58 57 1.THE ACTUAL PROFITS AND LOSSES OF ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS ARE ACCUMULATED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE MARGIN ACCOUNTS. 2.PAYMENT UPON DELIVERY IS DONE BASED ON THE LAST SETTLEMENT PRICE ( In our example: $90/barrel the 5.22 settle.) 3.The exhibits in the following slides illustrate the activity in the margin accounts of each of the traders focusing only on cash flow resulting from the daily marking-to-market process. Thus, possible margin calls are ignored.

59 58 PARTY A: DATE ACTION PRICE SETTLE CASH FLOW POSITION 5.16 LONG 10 $90 Initial margin LONG 10 $91 +$10,000 LONG 10 5.17 SHORT 10 $92 +$10,000 0 TOTAL $20,000 A’s profit is = $20,000 PARTY B: DATE ACTION PRICE SETTLE CASH FLOW POSITION 5.16 SHORT 10 $90 Initial margin SHORT 10 $91 -$10,000 SHORT 10 5.17 $92 -$10,000 SHORT 10 5.20 LONG 10 $91.5 +$5,000 0 TOTAL -$15,000 B’s loss is = $15,000

60 59 PARTY C: DATE ACTION PRICE SETTLE CASH FLOW POSITION 5.16 LONG 25 $91 $91 Initial margin LONG 25 5.17 $92 +$25,000 5.20 SHORT 10 $91.5 - $5,000 $91.5 -$7,500 LONG 15 5.21 $90.5 -$15,000 LONG 15 5.22 SHORT 10 $90 -$5,000 $90 -$2,500 LONG 5 C’s total loss up to and including 5.22 is $10,000. 5.23 TAKE DELIVERY OF 5,000 BARRELS for $90/bbl -$450,000 0 Note that the 5 contracts that were delivered has accumulated the following amount over the period: 5.17 (5,000)($1) = $5,000 5.20 (5,000)(-$.5) = -$2,500 5.21 (5,000)(-$1) = -$5,000 5.22 (5,000)(-$.5) = -$2,500 5.23 (5,000)(-$90) = -$450,000 Payment upon delivery TOTAL………….-$455,000 The five contracts have accumulated total payment of $455,000. Observe: $455,000/5,000 = $91/bbl AS PER THE INITIAL COMMITMENT.

61 60 PARTY D: DATE ACTION PRICE SETTLE CASH FLOW POSITION 5.16 SHORT 25 $91 Initial margin SHORT 25 $91 0 SHORT 25 5.17 $92 -$25,000 SHORT 25 5.20 LONG 25 $92.5 -$12,500 0 TOTAL -$37,500 D’s total loss is = $37,500 PARTY E: DATE ACTION PRICE SETTLE CASH FLOW POSITION 5.17 LONG 10 $92 Initial margin LONG 10 $92 0 LONG 10 5.20 $91.5 -$5,000 LONG 10 5.21 SHORT 10 $91 -$5,000 0 TOTAL -$10,000 E’s total loss is = $10,000

62 61 PARTY F: DATE ACTION PRICE SETTLE CASH FLOW POSITION 5.20 SHORT 25 $92.5 Initial margin SHORT 25 $91.5 +$25,000 5.21 LONG 10 $91 +$5,000 $90.5 +$15,000 SHORT 15 5.22 LONG 10 $90 +$5,000 $90 +$2,500 SHORT 5 F’s total profit up to and including 5.22 is $52,500. 5.23 DELIVER 5,000 BARRELS for $90/bbl +$950,000 0 Note that the 5 contracts that were delivered has accumulated the following amount over the period: 5.20 (5,000)($1) = $5,000 5.21 (5,000)($1) = $5,000 5.22 (5,000)($.5) = $2,500 5.23 (5,000)($90) = $450,000 Payment upon delivery TOTAL…………..$462,500 The five contracts that party F delivers accumulated a total of $462,500. Observe: $462,500/5,000 = $92.5/bblAS PER INITIAL COMMITMENT.

63 62 HOW ARE FUTURES CONTRACTS CREATED ? FUTURES CONTRACTS ARE SUGGESTED BY THE FUTURES EXCHANGES. THE PROPOPSALS ARE SENT FOR APPROVAL TO THE REGULATORY AUTHORITY: In the US: THE FUTURES COMMODITY TRADING COMMISSION. (FCTC)

64 63 THE MARKET PARTICIPANTS: TRADERS OF FUTURES MAY BE CLASSIFIED BY THEIR GOALS: SPECULATORS:OPEN A RISKY FUTURES POSITION FOR EXPECTED PROFITS. ARBITRAGERS:OPEN SIMULTANEOUS FUTURES AND CASH POSITIONS IN ORDER TO MAKE ARBITRAGE PROFITS. HEDGERS:OPEN A FUTURES POSITION IN ORDER TO ELIMINATE SPOT PRICE RISK.

65 64 SPECULATORS: TAKE RISK FOR EXPECTED PROFIT. ON THE MARKET FLOOR, WE FIND EXCHANGE MEMBERS WHO TRADE FOR THEIR ON ACCOUNTS. THESE ARE SPECULATORS. SCALPERS: LARGE POSITIONS SMALL PRICE MOVEMENTS NEVER STAY OPEN OVERNIGHT DAY TRADERS:OPEN A POSITION IN THE MORNING. CLOSE AT THE CLOSE OF THE SAME DAY. POSITION TRADERS: HOLD OPEN POSITIONS FOR LONGER PERIODS. OUTRIGHT SPECULATION: GO LONG or GO SHORT A SPREAD: LONG CONTRACT 1 and simultaneously SHORT CONTRACT 2

66 65 PROFIT IN SPREADS: MISALIGNMENT OF TWO DIFFERENT FUTURES PRICES CROSS COMMODITY SPREAD: SHORT JUNE CRUDE OIL CONTRACT LONG JUNE HEATING OIL CONTRACT CROSS EXCHANGE SPREAD LONG WHEAT CBT SHORT WHEAT KCB

67 66 CALENDAR SPREAD Definition: A long position with a simultaneous short position on the same underlying asset for two different delivery months, T1 y T2. The spread is the price difference Spread 0 = F 0,T1 - F 0,T2 Long T2 and Short T1

68 67 Example: LONG POSITION CONTRACT for JUNE SHORT POSTION CONTRACT for SEPTEMBER. Spread 0 = F 0,SEP - F 0,JUN How does a spread function? It depends on the speculator’s expectation. Will the spread will narrow in the future? or Will the spread widen in the future?

69 68 How to open the spread? Rule 1:If the spread is expected to narrow : SELL THE SPREAD! How? Buy the low priced contract and sell the high priced contract Rule 2: If spread is expected to widen: BUY THE SPREAD! How? Buy the high priced contract and sell the low priced contract.

70 69 CALENDAR SPREAD 1: 3 MARF(J ULY)F(DECEMBER)SPREAD USD0.90/CDUSD1.02/CDUSD0.12/CD The speculator: “The spread will narrow.” Use Rule 1: Sell the spread, that is, buy n futures for JUL sell n futures for DEC Assume that two weeks later the prices are: 17 MARF(JULY)F(DECEMBER)SPREAD USD0.94/CDUSD0.99/CDUSD0.05/CD Close the spread: that is, sell n futures for JUL buy n futures for DEC GAIN: [USD0.12/CD - USD0.05/CD](n)(100,000CD) For example: if n = 25 CME contracts the gain is: [USD0.07/CD](25)(CD100,000) = USD175,000.

71 70 CALENDAR SPREAD 2: 3 MARF( JULY)F(DECEMBER)SPREAD USD0.90/CDUSD1.02/CDUSD0.12/CD The speculator: “The spread will widen.” apply rule 2. Buy the spread, that is, sell n futures for JUL buy n futures for DEC. Some time later: 24 MARF(JULY)F(DECEMBER)SPREAD USD0.92/CDUSD1.08/CDUSD0.16/CD Close the spread, that is, buy n futures for JUL sell n futures for DEC The Gain: [-USD0.12/CD + USD0.16/CD](n)(100,000CD) For example: if n = 25 CME contracts the gain is: [USD0.04/CD](25)(CD100,000) = USD100,000.


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