Presentation on theme: "Einstitute.worldbank.org Catalyzing 21st Century Growth : The Role of Innovative Cities May 8, 2012 | 10:00 AM EST Speaker: Shahid Yusuf Economic Advisor."— Presentation transcript:
einstitute.worldbank.org Catalyzing 21st Century Growth : The Role of Innovative Cities May 8, 2012 | 10:00 AM EST Speaker: Shahid Yusuf Economic Advisor World Bank Institute
Why do Cities matter for Growth Economics? o High rate of urbanization and secular trend because of “urban edge” in productivity and labor saving technological bias in agriculture. o Growing sectors are manufacturing and services, both urban based. o Increasing share of GDP sourced from urban areas. o Productive activities concentrated in few large cities e.g. Seoul, Bangkok, Cairo, Karachi, Sao Paolo.
Sources of Growth o Supply based growth estimated through production functions: capital, labor and total factor productivity (TFP). For low and middle income countries, capital and TFP are the principal and complementary sources of growth (however, one must not ignore labor). o Demand based growth derived from: consumption, investment, and net exports. o Fast growing economies – national or local – rely on supply push that is supported by demand pull. The two must work together.
Deconstructing (supply-side) Sources o Capital accumulation requires an enabling environment (national and local), entrepreneurship, and institutions for mobilizing (from internal and external sources) and efficiently channeling funds into productive uses in an urban milieu. o Productivity of labor depends upon supply of (and technological level of) capital equipment. o Gains in TFP function of allocative efficiency of state and markets, R&D, innovation, volume and quality of skills, management and technology absorption.
Deconstructing the Demand-Side o Stable national-level macro-environment that smoothens cyclical fluctuations, contains inflationary pressures and minimizes risks from bubbles. o Expanding middle class (an urban phenomenon) that provides steadily growing consumption demand for standardized commodities and new products. o Culture and institutions encouraging entrepreneurship and enforcing property rights, thereby encouraging investment. o Trade and FDI policies supportive of openness and that promote exports. An open trading environment attracts FDI and stimulates exports.
Enter Cities o Success of supply and demand side drivers of growth depends upon urban response to policies, market inducements and to opportunities. Agriculture a small and shrinking share of national product. o For most countries, GDP growth derives from performance of a few major cities. Recent trends and growth dynamics suggest that this concentration in the urban sources of growth will increase.
When is a city an “engine of growth?” o “Engines” must account for a large share of GDP. o Size confers agglomeration and scale economies and contributes to innovativeness. o Industrial composition and diversity contributes to growth, its stability and exports. o Share of high-consuming middle class greater in large, industrially diversified cities. o “Engines” deliver stable, sustainable growth.
Other Attributes of “Engines” o Engines are frequently capital cities and enjoy other geographical and historical advantages. o Growing “engines” house major universities and research entities, and accumulate labor and deep pools of skills from national and foreign sources. o Financial institutions concentrate in large cities o “Engines” attract FDI that contributes to industrial diversification and technology transfer. o “Engines” are open, internationally connected, exporting cities. o Large cities have broader tax bases and can mobilize more revenue to finance infrastructure and services.
Lifecycles of “Engine” Cities: Stage 1 o Historically engines have started out as industrial centers and providers of administrative services (e.g. European engines). o In earlier stages, they absorb labor and capital from rural sector into more productive activities. o Fast growing engines rely on growth of manufacturing sector, and serve as trade and financial hubs (e.g. London, New York, Zurich).
Lifecycle: Stage 2 o In maturing engines, manufacturing is superseded by producer services and creative industries however, manufacturing remains important source of employment, innovation and TFP (e.g. Seoul). o Innovation more broadly (including of services) acquires greater salience. o Exports remain an important driver of growth and of spillovers. o These cities continue to increase share of population and to attract skills and FDI (e.g. Tokyo). o ICT and transport infrastructure supporting connectivity has a larger role.
Notable (new) Engines o Ho Chi Minh City, Shenzhen, Singapore and Seoul are four cities that highlight key attributes of engines. o Their emergence as engines is relatively recent: in the 1960s for Singapore and Seoul, in the 1980s for Shenzhen, and the 1990s for HCM City. o Location was key in all four cases, two were/are capitals/administrative centers.
Ho Chi Minh City o Population (2010): 7.4 million (3 million in 1989) and increasing o GDP (2010): $24 billion (approx) o GDP growth : 10% approx. o GDP share (2010): 20% o Share of manufacturing: 30% o Share of exports: 40% o Share of FDI: 35% ($12.2 billion stock) o Internet penetration:2.2 million subscribers and 5.5 million users
Shenzhen o Population rose from 50,000 in 1979 to 10.3 million in 2010 o GDP growth 15+ percent o GDP 2010: $141 billion+ o Export/GDP ratio: China’s leading export city o FDI stock 2010: $30 billion o R&D/GDP in 2010: 3.4% o Transport hub: 4th largest container port in 2010 o Internet penetration rate (2011): 78%
Singapore o Population rose from 650,000 in 1960 to 5 million in 2010 – 1.4 million were foreigners o GDP growth 2000 – 2010: 6.6% o Share of manufacturing in GDP: 22% o Export/GDP consistently high (2010): 1.58 o FDI (2010): $618.6 billion o R&D as percent of GDP: 3% o Major transport hub: 2nd largest container port 2010 o Internet usage (2010): 78% of population
Seoul o Population 2010: 9.8 million (metro area 22.5 million) o GDP (2008): $291 billion (city share about 24%; metro area share of GDP is 48%) o GDP growth : 4-5% approximately o Share of secondary industry in GDP (2003): 14% o Export/GDP o Skilled workforce: 50% have some tertiary education o R&D as percent of GDP (2005): 3.14% of GDP o Seoul/Incheon air transport hub (2010): 8th by international passenger traffic; 4th by world cargo traffic o Internet penetration (2010): 83%
The Future of Engines o First mover, scale and agglomeration advantages can be enduring if supported by good governance/metropolitan management. o Innovation capacity advantages likely to strengthen – but most innovation will be incremental. o Can take the lead in greening growth, containing energy intensity (especially of urban transport) and introducing/producing new green technologies, products and services. o Urbanization economies, skill concentration facilitates diversification, buttresses export intensity.
Bibliography o Edward Glaeser, Triumph of the City. New York, Penguin Press. o Margaret Pugh O’Mara, Cities of Knowledge. Princeton NJ, Princeton University Press. o Robert P. Inman, Making Cities Work, Princeton NJ, Princeton University Press. o Joan Fitzgerald, Emerald Cities. New York, Oxford University Press. o John D. Kasarda and Greg Lindsay, Aerotropolis. New York, Farrar Straus and Giroux. o John Montgomery, The New Wealth of Cities. Aldershot, Ashgate Publishing.