Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Determinants of Recidivism in Rhode Island’s 2009 Prison Population Vlad Konopelko, Lucian Drobot, Alex Gemma, David Rodin, Bill Garneau.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Determinants of Recidivism in Rhode Island’s 2009 Prison Population Vlad Konopelko, Lucian Drobot, Alex Gemma, David Rodin, Bill Garneau."— Presentation transcript:

1 Determinants of Recidivism in Rhode Island’s 2009 Prison Population Vlad Konopelko, Lucian Drobot, Alex Gemma, David Rodin, Bill Garneau

2 Topic RI Recidivism study Recidivist = Repeat offender – 28% returned with new sentence – 34% were awaiting trial – 47% are for new crime rest for probation and parole violation Important to everyone Data availability

3 Objective Determine which factors impacts repeat offenders Identify factors that can be influenced through policies

4 Research History “The Best Ones Come Out First! Early Release from Prison and Recidivism A Regression Discontinuity Approach” Olivier Marie 2009 Building Criminal Capital vs Specific Deterrence: The Effect of Incarceration Length on Recidivism. David S. Abrams 2010

5 Data Set Starting Data Set – 450,000 data points – 150 variables – 3700 Variables Ending Data Set – 47,000 data points – 28 Variables – 1670 Subjects

6 Removed Variables Redundant Variables – Length of stay, Total stay, % Time served Variables Insignificant to Our Study – Addresses, birthdays, admittance dates, etc… Incomplete records – 2000 Inmates did not have all the data points

7 Condensing the Data Age Bracket – 32 and Below – 33 and Above Employment – Under/Unemployed – Employed / Outside of workforce Housing Status – Homeless/ Living in a shelter – Program Transitional/ Temporary/Permanently residents Education – High school/GED + – Below high school and no GED

8 Logistic Regression Model

9

10 Determine estimated odds ratio Determine estimated probability of an event of interest

11 Model Results VariableBS.E.WalddfSig.Exp(B) Step 1 Total Sentence Constant Step 2 Age Total Sentence Constant Step 3 Age Total Sentence Citizenship Constant Step 4 Age Total Sentence Housing Status Citizenship Constant

12 32 and Under VariableBS.E.WalddfSig.Exp(B) Age Felony or Misdemeanor Education HousingStatus Citizenship Constant

13 Key Indicators

14 Policies 1 5 out of 28 variables – Single vs married For all: – Age: The higher the age the less likelihood. – Citizenship: US citizen are more likely to return

15 Policies 2 For below 33: 1.Felony vs misdemeanor Early parole for misdemeanor convicts. 2.Below GED or High school vs High school/GED Offer education. 3.Age admitted Programs targeting young convicts. 4.Housing vs Homeless Invest in programs around housing.


Download ppt "Determinants of Recidivism in Rhode Island’s 2009 Prison Population Vlad Konopelko, Lucian Drobot, Alex Gemma, David Rodin, Bill Garneau."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google