Presentation on theme: "Determinants of Recidivism in Rhode Island’s 2009 Prison Population Vlad Konopelko, Lucian Drobot, Alex Gemma, David Rodin, Bill Garneau."— Presentation transcript:
Determinants of Recidivism in Rhode Island’s 2009 Prison Population Vlad Konopelko, Lucian Drobot, Alex Gemma, David Rodin, Bill Garneau
Topic RI Recidivism study Recidivist = Repeat offender – 28% returned with new sentence – 34% were awaiting trial – 47% are for new crime rest for probation and parole violation Important to everyone Data availability
Objective Determine which factors impacts repeat offenders Identify factors that can be influenced through policies
Research History “The Best Ones Come Out First! Early Release from Prison and Recidivism A Regression Discontinuity Approach” Olivier Marie 2009 Building Criminal Capital vs Specific Deterrence: The Effect of Incarceration Length on Recidivism. David S. Abrams 2010
Data Set Starting Data Set – 450,000 data points – 150 variables – 3700 Variables Ending Data Set – 47,000 data points – 28 Variables – 1670 Subjects
Removed Variables Redundant Variables – Length of stay, Total stay, % Time served Variables Insignificant to Our Study – Addresses, birthdays, admittance dates, etc… Incomplete records – 2000 Inmates did not have all the data points
Condensing the Data Age Bracket – 32 and Below – 33 and Above Employment – Under/Unemployed – Employed / Outside of workforce Housing Status – Homeless/ Living in a shelter – Program Transitional/ Temporary/Permanently residents Education – High school/GED + – Below high school and no GED
Determine estimated odds ratio Determine estimated probability of an event of interest
Model Results VariableBS.E.WalddfSig.Exp(B) Step 1 Total Sentence-.001.00023.9501.000.999 Constant-.622.07275.4341.000.537 Step 2 Age-.022.00616.0501.000.978 Total Sentence-.001.00022.2061.000.999 Constant.092.190.2331.6291.096 Step 3 Age-.025.00619.9421.000.975 Total Sentence-.001.00022.1811.000.999 Citizenship.806.20515.4581.0002.240 Constant-.534.2534.4491.035.586 Step 4 Age-.028.00622.9491.000.973 Total Sentence-.001.00022.9011.000.999 Housing Status.336.1594.4701.0351.399 Citizenship.811.20615.5661.0002.250 Constant-.500.2543.8751.049.607
32 and Under VariableBS.E.WalddfSig.Exp(B) Age-.046.0205.3511.021.955 Felony or Misdemeanor -.427.1567.4981.006.652 Education.394.1615.9391.0151.482 HousingStatus.505.2543.9411.0471.657 Citizenship.804.24410.9071.0012.235 Constant-.162.513.1001.752.851
Policies 1 5 out of 28 variables – Single vs married For all: – Age: The higher the age the less likelihood. – Citizenship: US citizen are more likely to return
Policies 2 For below 33: 1.Felony vs misdemeanor Early parole for misdemeanor convicts. 2.Below GED or High school vs High school/GED Offer education. 3.Age admitted Programs targeting young convicts. 4.Housing vs Homeless Invest in programs around housing.
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