Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Linkage Institutions 2014. Basic Rotation of US Elections United_States Illustrates diff types of federal.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Linkage Institutions 2014. Basic Rotation of US Elections United_States Illustrates diff types of federal."— Presentation transcript:

1 Linkage Institutions 2014

2 Basic Rotation of US Elections United_States Illustrates diff types of federal elections

3 Add to vocab Candidate centered Soft money Gerrymandering

4 Elections are CANDIDATE Centered—much more than most other liberal democracies candidate selection here is an individual decision as opposed to an organizational decision by a political party. Here, you run, you raise the money you get the signatures, you get yourself on the ballot and voters vote for you. Even if parities involved, they have little control due to the unique direct primary.

5 Political Parties... In 1870, political cartoonist Thomas Nast depicted the Democratic Party with a donkey in a New York City-based magazine, "Harper’s Weekly." Andrew Jackson, a Democrat, had already used the donkey on posters during his 1828 presidential campaign In 1874, another Nast cartoon in "Harper’s Weekly" used an elephant to represent Republican voters who were dissatisfied with the prospect of President Ulysses S. Grant running for a third term. Nast used the elephant in another "Harper’s Weekly" cartoon two weeks later. Other political cartoonists picked up on the animals as symbols of their respective political parties. Today, the Democrats use the donkey as an unofficial symbol, while the Republicans officially adopted the elephant as their party mascot. Nast’s 1870 and 1874 cartoons are shown above.

6 The Conventional Wisdom: Versus: George Washington in 1796 farewell address: “Let me warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally. This spirit... exists under different shapes in government, more or less stifled, controlled, or repressed; but in those of the popular form it is seen in its greater rankness and is truly their worst enemy.”

7 Functions of Political Parties... Are they vital to liberal democracy? Elections: what is liberal democ w/o competitive elections? Nominate candidates (but... rise of primaries weakens them) key diff b/w them and Igs; Raise funds for their candidates (but... Superpacs) (electioneering) Run Campaigns (but candidate centered—use media) (electionereing) Provide a platform of issues Mobilize voters: Registering and GOTV Giving cues to voters What’s democracy w/o voters? Linkage Institution The party is essentially a link between the citizen and the state; party is one of the devices which makes possible citizen influence on the policies of government. what is democ w/o citizen control? Organizing Government Articulate policies Coordinate policy making Unify diverse interests By bringing together diff people and ideas they help establish the means by which a majority can rule—w/o them the pol process would be too fragmented; but b/c they are a relatively heterogeneous group, they also prevent tyranny of the majority and act as a modifying inflence

8 In the US, campaigns are much more candidate centered—and less based on the _________ __________ Why? Media coverage: horserace aspect, polls, feeding frenzy, coverage of candidates background, focus on candidate gaffes Candidates have contributed to this: use media to bypass parties, sound bites, media events, negative commercials against opposing candidates, leaking information, image building (hiring consultants, picture of families, going on talk shows) Interest groups contribute: 501c (3) g0rups and 527 groups like SwiftBoat Veterans for Truth and Move on; remember independent expenditures and “issue” ads: see articles and expenditureshttp://www.opensecrets.org/527s/index.php But will Citizen’s United change this to be.... Interest group centered? The Media and Campaigns

9 Things to remember about American Political Parties.... Our parties are relatively weak compared to other liberal democracies... Meaning: Decentralized—organized as a stratarchy Stratarchy is an organization in which each strata (or layer) is independent of every other strata. Each unit within a strata also is independent of every other unit within that strata.

10 Meaning... They can’t call for elections, their governing power might be weakened by divided government, they don’t have many ways to discipline members who don’t vote the party platform, and anyone can say they are running on their ticket—like it or not

11 In other systems, (like Canada), a bad party member can be relegated to the back bench, s/he won’t get “parachuted” into a safe seat, some systems even say you can lose your seat if you don’t vote with the party and the biggest consequence of all: if govt loses something they have designated a “vote of confidence” new elections mean the MP may lose his or her seat

12 Why are parties weak? Federalism Separation of powers Primaries Political culture pluralism (many access points) Lots of media outlets (don’t need parties to get message out) Stronger Igs (other options) NO MORE SOFT MONEY

13 It is an election by secret ballot in which voters choose a political party’s candidate for office in an election. an election that narrows the field of candidates before an election for office republican-and-democratic/http://robinrobinsonforjudge.com/primary-sample-ballots- republican-and-democratic/ to see an example of a primary ballot

14 _________primaries (or pick-a-party) are those in which voters of any affiliation may vote for the slate of any party. ________primaries are those in which only the voters affiliated with a party may vote in its primary. ________primaries (or “jungle primaries” “free love” primaries) are those in which voters, regardless of affiliation, may choose the party primary in which they want to vote on an office- by-office basis. The blanket primary was struck down in 2001 by the Supreme Court in CA Democratic Party v. Jones.

15 Cartoon from the 1934 campaign to create a blanket primary See what we ended up with in Wa State Sample.pdf Sample.pdf

16 Witness the sleazy fisher

17

18 OLYMPIA - Washington state will appeal a federal court decision that abolished the state's popular 68-year-old blanket primary that allows voters to split their tickets and avoid party registration. Secretary of State Sam Reed, a Republican, and Attorney General Christine Gregoire, a Democrat, announced Friday that the state will ask the full 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to rehear the decision made by one of its three-judge panels. The political parties called the new appeal a big waste of taxpayer money on a challenge that has no chance of succeeding. The appeals panel, drawing from a U.S. Supreme Court decision that threw out a virtually identical system in California in 2000, said allowing all registered voters to pick nominees clearly violates the parties' constitutional right to pick their own standard bearers. State To Appeal Blanket Primary Ruling Published: Sep 19, 2003

19 Are primaries for congressional seats direct or indirect? indirect primary noun U.S. politics. a primary in which members of a party elect delegates to a party convention that in turn elects the party's candidates. direct primary — n ( US ) government a primary in which voters directly select the candidates who will run for office

20 A few points about elections for congress: ALL primaries for Members of Congress are direct elections but voter qualification criteria varies The primaries for the nomination of presidential candidates are INDIRECT

21 General election ballot hive/12/Sample%20Ballot.pdfhttp://www.kitsapgov.com/aud/elections/arc hive/12/Sample%20Ballot.pdf Also to find your legislator:

22 Buckley v. Valeo" (1976) ruled that contributions to campaign known as “hard money” could be regulated. "Soft money" came to refer to unregulated money donated to political parties that was supposed to be used for state and local elections and generic “party-building” activities, including voter registration campaigns and get-out-the-vote drives. Soon it also was used for “issue ads” It was not regulated. The history of soft money... Why issue ads? Buckley v. Valeo also held that only speech that expressly advocated the election or defeat of a candidate could be regulated (but not a discussion of issues)

23 Candidate X runs an ad that says, "I am a good person. Candidate Y is a bad person. Vote for me on election day." Because of the "Vote for me..." portion... "hard money." Candidate Y runs an ad that says, "Candidate X has a record that includes awful things. If these awful things continue, people will come to your house, steal your money and shoot your dog. Be sure to vote on election day.“ No express advocacy so it is an “issue ad” and can be paid for with soft money the distinction between “issue ads” and “election communications”

24 So soft money made parties stronger.....

25 ... parties have less money to spend on e__________ function As a result, many of the soft money-funded activities previously undertaken by political parties have been taken over by independent expenditure groups (SUPERPACS). But The McCain Feingold Act (the BCRA) banned soft money... Why are parties weak?

26 They can’t compete with superpacs

27 Bring Back the Smoke-Filled Rooms? The campaign-finance laws have made the presidential selection process a self-destructive mess. The question asked everywhere is, Why is this the field? How did it come to this? Desperate questions bring desperate answers, such that I have been overheard mumbling of late: "Maybe it's time to bring back the smoke-filled rooms." This was the nearly mythical system of selection in which party leaders and party bosses gathered over cigars, bourbon and branch to pick a candidate "who could win." The most famous smoke-filled room pick was William McKinley, anointed for the 1896 election by Ohio kingmaker Mark Hanna (though in fact Hanna got McKinley nominated over the opposition of GOP party bosses).

28 Hard for voters to indicate an approach to governing: Hard to hold one party responsible Elected officials don’t do what party platform says Tendency to middle But... may lend itself to stability, be a better way to meet needs of all, and is in keeping with our individual emphasis Effect of Weak Parties...

29 “Safire’s New Political Dictionary” defines a smoke-filled room as “a place of political intrigue and chicanery, where candidates are selected by party bosses in cigar-chewing sessions.” Review: Party functions Our parties are weak for many reasons but with a focus on media, primaries and campaign finance laws What’s the diff b/w parties supporters platforms Rising partisanship

30 Is there a “dimes worth of difference b/w the parties? Consider supporters Consider ideology he-10-biggest-differences-between- republicans-and-democrats/

31

32

33 Religiosity The Gallup Religiosity Index, (light color indicates religious, dark nonreligious) [1] [1]

34 Safety Net Policies Programs indented to protect from hardship or loss or to guarantee a minimal amount of physical, or financial security

35 See other ahem... Cleavages e/president srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/table.html srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/national- breakdown/ Presidential-Election- Center.aspx?ref=interactiveack Potassium feldspar (orthoclase) is often pinkish in color and displays the property of cleavage, the tendency to break along flat planes. It is harder than glass

36 example Pick 2 cleavages (race, gender, education etc) and 2 sides. Explain why each side in the cleavage might prefer the candidate they do, given the platforms of the respective parties. Cleavage one: Education level Side a: high school graduate Side b: Post-graduate degree Cleavage two: Side a Side b

37

38

39

40 See images to illustrate: Reinforcing and Cross-Cutting Cleavages Societal cleavages (e.g. race, class, religion, gender, region, etc) can produce conflict and disagreement among the population over politics and policy. Reinforcing Cleavages If cleavages overlap with each other, this can heighten the conflict and be more divisive. The disagreements produced by one division (e.g. class), will reinforce the divisions produced by another (e.g. race). Finding agreement and compromise across groups in this situation can be that much more difficult. Cross-cutting Cleavages If cleavages cut across each other, this can lessen the presence of conflict across groups Disagreements produced by one division can produce cross-pressures for individuals and mitigate the divisions they may experience by way of another cleavage Cross-pressures help produce "bridges" across the cleavages, making agreement and compromise more likely

41 Gender Gap in 2012 Vote Is Largest in Gallup's History by Jeffrey M. Jones PRINCETON, NJ -- President Barack Obama won the two-party vote among female voters in the 2012 election by 12 points, 56% to 44%, over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, Romney won among men by an eight- point margin, 54% to 46%. That total 20-point gender gap is the largest Gallup has measured in a presidential election since it began compiling the vote by major subgroups in There are a number of possible reasons for the increase in the gender gap this year. For example, Romney's business background may have been more appealing to men than to women. Obama's campaign stressed maintaining the social safety net, raising taxes on the wealthy, maintaining abortion rights, and requiring healthcare coverage for contraception -- all in contrast to Romney's more conservative positions on these issues of potential interest to women.

42 Groups are not monolithic either Latino/a vote by ancestry

43 See also personal.umich.edu/~mejn/ele ction/2012/

44 Reminds me of “the most important candidate quality” in exit polls

45 The White Vote For a reflection see: By Karl Rove June 27, 2013 More White Votes Alone Won't Save the GOP To win the presidency in 2016, the party needs to do better with Hispanics. icles/SB

46

47 Parties are COALITIONS (a)Describe three groups that were significant in President Obama's electoral coalition and explain why each was important (b)Describe the problems that President Obama may have in sustaining his winning coalition

48

49

50 November 26, 2006 Here Come the Economic Populists The parties themselves have divisions with in them...

51 Fiscal vs Social Conservatives would argue that the government should be small, especially when it comes to taxation, government expenditures and deficits, and government debt VS.... Argues that government and/or society have a role in encouraging or enforcing what they consider traditional values or behaviors

52

53 November 27, 2011, 11:34 pm 509 Comments509 Comments The Future of the Obama Coalition By THOMAS B. EDSALL For decades, Democrats have suffered continuous and increasingly severe losses among white voters. But preparations by Democratic operatives for the 2012 election make it clear for the first time that the party will explicitly abandon the white working class.THOMAS B. EDSALL All pretense of trying to win a majority of the white working class has been effectively jettisoned in favor of cementing a center-left coalition made up, on the one hand, of voters who have gotten ahead on the basis of educational attainment — professors, artists, designers, editors, human resources managers, lawyers, librarians, social workers, teachers and therapists — and a second, substantial constituency of lower-income voters who are disproportionately African-American and Hispanic.

54 Next Points Parties are more distinct Growing Partisanship—why and ramifications We have a 2 party dominant System

55 What does this define? Firm adherence to a political party

56 Contrast this: Of, consisting of, or supported by members of two parties, especially two major political parties

57 Motion dismissed Jul 14th 2005 American politics is both too rigid and too flexible AMERICAN society has been getting less like Europe's. It is growing faster and ageing more slowly, it is geographically more mobile and (dare one say it) has become more divided between rich and poor. Yet at the same time, the structure of American politics (though not its ideology) is getting more “European”. Political parties are becoming more coherent in their beliefs, and the system of government is more centralised.... This does not mean that party structures themselves have strengthened. In fact, in terms of raising money they are weaker than they have been throughout most of American history. But the parties are ideologically more distinct. And within the parties, politicians are more partisan and less diverse in their backgrounds.... American parties used to be ad hoc cliques and loose regional coalitions. Party grandees chose likely candidates on the basis of patronage and loyalty, not ideology. But the defection of conservative southerners from Democrats to Republicans—and the mirror-image move of north-eastern Republicans to Democrats—made both parties' ideologies much clearer. Now almost all conservatives are Republican and almost all liberals are Democrats. When George Wallace was governor of Alabama, he used to say that there wasn't a dime's worth of difference between the parties. You could not say that now. The parties are becoming more distinct.... From the Economist:

58 Above all, polarisation has grown in the electorate, evidenced by a sharp decline in split-ticket voting (choosing a president from one party and a congressional representative from another). In 1972, 44% of congressmen and women represented a different party from the one whose presidential candidate carried their district. In 2000, the share was under 20%. The truly independent voter seems to be disappearing. That may seem curious, because those who call themselves independents easily outnumber self-identified Democrats or Republicans. Yet most so-called independents vote consistently one way or the other. The White House reckons that less than one-third of independent voters actually switched parties in the past three elections. With the decline of swing voters, there seems less and less point in running presidential campaigns to appeal to the slim middle. Instead, elections have become contests to mobilise core supporters.

59

60 Rising partisanship-why? Shrinking political center as parties get more homogenous Redistricting creates safe seats Govt controlled by slim majority so imperative that loyalty be enforced Congressional lifestyles—fewer live in DC so don’t socialize Money: more time needed to raise money, so don’t socialize Media lives on accentuating, and in some cases manufacturing, differences. “The twenty-four/seven media cycle means policymakers must take more time to feed the beast.” American public : see Pew Research values study

61 A party-line vote in a deliberative assembly (such as a constituent assembly, parliament, or legislature) is a vote in which every member of a political party votes the same way (usually in opposition to the other political party(ies) whose members vote the opposite way). See the vote on Obamacare: https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/ /s396 https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/ /s396 Rising partisanship

62 Partisan Polarization Surges in Bush, Obama Years Trends in American Values: polarization-surges-in-bush-obama-years/ In recent years, both parties have become smaller and more ideologically homogeneous. Republicans are dominated by self-described conservatives, while a smaller but growing number of Democrats call themselves liberals. Among Republicans, conservatives continue to outnumber moderates by about two-to-one. And there are now as many liberal Democrats as moderate Democrats.

63

64

65

66 Few people recognize that the previous bipartisan era was an aberration, not the historical norm. Consider, for instance, this plot of estimated party polarization in Congress:

67 Redistricting creating safe seats As the economist says In a normal democracy, voters choose their representatives. In America, it is rapidly becoming the other way around

68 Again, from another Economist article: Partisanship is also evident in redistricting, which has increased the number of safe seats towards North Korean levels. In 2004, only congressional seats are likely to be truly competitive—a quarter of the number in the 1990s. Since 1964, the share of House incumbents re-elected with over 60% of the vote has risen from 58% to 77%. This makes congressmen's politics more extreme. If your district is rock-solid, you have little reason to fear that voters will kick you out for moving too far from their opinions. The main threat comes from party activists, who tend to be more extreme in their views and can propose a challenger in primary elections. So the dangers of drifting too far to the middle outweigh those of drifting too far to the extremes. Partisan redistricting marginalises centrist voters, aligns the views of candidates more closely with extremists on each side and radicalises politics How does redistricting create a growing partisanship in Congress...

69 Gerrymandering should not be confused with malaportionment, where the number of eligible voters per elected representative can vary widely See the following: explains packing and cracking jagged-lines-can-impact-an-election-christina-greer And CPJ Grey:

70 Result of redistricting... “safe seats” which means: Elections less competitive Incumbent advantage enhanced More partisanship.

71 Rising partisanship plus divided government leads to....

72 effects of partisanship in Congress... Confirmation battles leading to declining judicial confirmation rates and 100s of posts not filled

73 More effects... Rise of the filibuster At first, “filibuster” referred to a “free booter” or “pirate”, who engaged in illegal activities for self gain; then it became “an endless discourse to impede the passage of an ‘unwanted’ congressional bill”.

74 And more effects

75 Gov’t shutdown of 95-96; 2013 Effect of Divided Govt. especially when coupled with more partisanship BUT GRIDLOCK was the founders point

76 Other things to remember about parties... We have a 2 party system Why? But also American political culture: not ideological, no history of anti-capitalism, strong IG give other options

77 Third Parties have a lot of disadvantages: Lack name recognition Ballot access harder No matching funds in presidential races ( unless party got 5% of the vote in last election) Perception of “wasted vote” Excluded from debates (unless 15% support) Lack organization If your support is spread out, WTA hurts you

78 Notable Third Party Candidates Ross Perot (Reform Party). A Texas billionaire with no experience in government, Perot captured public attention during the 1992 election for his focus on the budget deficit and his promises to bring his corporate successes to the White House. Perot participated in three presidential debates against Bill Clinton and George H. Bush, and won about 18 percent of the popular vote (studies have shown that Clinton probably would have still won had Perot not run, though Perot did cost Clinton a majority of the popular vote). Perot ran again in 1996 but with less success; he was not invited to participate in the presidential debates between Clinton and Bob Dole, and won about 8.4 percent of the vote..

79 Ralph Nader (Green Party). A long-time consumer advocate, Nader first ran in 1996 with a nominal campaign but became a more active candidate in 2000, saying that he was both criticizing the Democratic Party as well as trying to build the Green Party as a viable and stable third-party. Nader won about 2 percent of the popular vote in 2000

80 Representative John Anderson of Illinois (National Unity Campaign). Originally a moderate Republican, Anderson dropped out of the 1980 Republican primary in favor of Ronald Reagan, but continued his campaign as an independent candidate. He participated in one presidential debate with Reagan (Carter refused to debate Anderson), and won about 6 percent of the popular vote.

81 Governor George Wallace (American Independent Party). The last third-party candidate to win any electoral votes, Wallace split from the Democratic Party to run a campaign against the extension of civil rights and in favor of the Vietnam War. He had strong results in the South and won 13.5 percent of the popular vote and 48 electoral seats. Wallace subsequently returned to the Democratic Party. Gov. George Wallace blocks the doorway to Foster Auditorium at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, June 11, 1963.

82 Even though they don’t win, third parties do play an important role in our political system bring new groups into the electorate act as "safety valves" raise issues that other parties must address and often incorporate into their own party platforms And they can be “spoilers” influencing election results

83

84 Party functions/ why need in lib democracy Our parties are weak for many reasons but with a focus on media, primaries and campaign finance laws What’s the diff b/w parties supporters platforms Rising partisanship Parties are more distinct Growing Partisanship—why and ramifications We have a 2 party dominant system—but thirds aren’t irrelevant This is what you should have learned thru class discussions

85 How Bill Changed the Dems

86 (election 1998) still divided: D president; R congress : (election 2000) R pres; R house; R senate which becomes D senate; * (50/50 after election, but who was a tie breaker... So R control until Jeffords switches to be an independent so 50 dems, 49 Rs and 1 independent) ; (election 2002) R pres, R senate 51/48/1; R House (party govt) : (election 2004)R pres; R senate; R house (election 2006) what happened? ___ Pres; _______ Senate; ____ House See:

87


Download ppt "Linkage Institutions 2014. Basic Rotation of US Elections United_States Illustrates diff types of federal."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google