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The Future of Election Reform (in light of the 2012 elections) Ned Foley & Steven Huefner The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law Election Law.

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Presentation on theme: "The Future of Election Reform (in light of the 2012 elections) Ned Foley & Steven Huefner The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law Election Law."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Future of Election Reform (in light of the 2012 elections) Ned Foley & Steven Huefner The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law Election Moritz

2 The Future of Election Reform * Early and Absentee Voting in 2012 Trends and Trade-offs * Long Lines at Polling Places in 2012 Nature and Extent of Problem * Post-election Considerations The “Blue Shift” and Its Implications The “Blue Shift” and Its Implications * Reform Prospects and Obstacles

3 Early and Absentee Voting in 2012 Trends and Tradeoffs

4 [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

5

6

7 2000 (CPS) Modes of Voting – 2000 [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

8 2012 (SPAE) Modes of Voting – 2012 [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

9 Long Lines at Polling Places in 2012 Nature and Extent of Problem

10 13 min = avg. Election Day wait 63% said most of this time was waiting to check in [20 min = avg. early voting wait] [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

11 How Long Did People Wait? Not at all37% Less than 10 minutes31% minutes20% minutes9% More than one hour3% [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

12 How Long Did People Wait? Not at all37% Less than 10 minutes31% minutes20% minutes9% More than one hour3% Average waiting time for the 3% who waited more than an hour = 129 minutes

13 [courtesy Charles Stewart, MIT]

14 Post-Election Considerations The “Blue Shift” and Its Implications

15 YearColoradoFloridaOhioPennsylvaniaVirginia 19603,238 (0.44)18,455 (1.20)1,481 (0.04)14,927 (0.30)1,696 (0.22) 19764,656 (0.45)19,618 (0.63)3,530 (0.09)5,383 (0.12)1,248 (0.08) 19801,471 (0.14)52,607 (1.52)3,904 (0.10)4,408 (0.10)2,762 (0.16) ,691 (2.56)95,651 (2.29)3,570 (0.08)2,851 (0.06)750 (0.04) (0.01)55,276 (1.29)123 (0.003)2,226 (0.05)4,999 (0.23) 19921,570 (0.13)14,705 (0.35)1,873 (0.05)647 (0.02)578 (0.03) (0.02)5,051 (0.11)11,508 (0.29)1,977 (0.05)1,694 (0.08) (0.01)1,247 (0.02)6,039 (0.13)4,489 (0.09)11,380 (0.43) ,704 (1.56)4,060 (0.05)17,994 (0.32)22,790 (0.40)9,556 (0.30) ,791 (3.08)42,277 (0.51)52,627 (0.94)23,863 (0.40)79,363 (2.15) ,794 (1.07)27,281 (0.32)65,522 (1.19)26,146 (0.46)40,659 (0.88) Swing State Gains

16 YearCaliforniaMarylandNew JerseyNew YorkOregonWashington ,573 (0.16) 313 (0.02) 7,845 (0.27) 12,797 (0.20) 1,501 (0.15) 24,111 (1.61) ,531 (0.45) 4,517 (0.32) 12,332 (0.46) 126 (0.002) 2,494 (0.34) 34,254 (2.26) ,048 (0.59) 14,793 (0.89) 12,480 (0.39) 11,058 (0.16) 15,993 (1.31) 35,526 (1.91) ,587 (0.46) 9,600 (0.56) 1,731 (0.06) 12,683 (0.20) 1,260 (0.11) 14,691 (0.80) ,572 (0.20) 11,107 (0.66) 22,456 (0.80) 92,297 (1.59) 14,446 (1.32) 16,005 (0.93) ,083 (0.72) 12,075 (0.73) 29,360 (1.07) 170,002 (2.99) 41,490 (3.49) 22,709 (1.16) ,168 (0.90) 4,545 (0.23) 92,023 (2.99) 178,412 (2.76) 32,624 (2.28) 50,104 (2.13) ,820 (1.76) 36,468 (1.55) 29,601 (0.83) 169,787 (2.33) 5,618 (0.31) 85,899 (3.05) ,883 (6.18) 133,753 (5.17) 69,188 (1.81) 417,740 (5.95) 116,366 (6.55) 210,565 (7.07) 20121,076,448 (8.48) 85,500 (3.23) 81,523 (2.26) 452,635 (6.90) 62,532 (3.63) 224,776 (7.38)

17 YearAll StatesSwingBig ShiftAll StatesSwingBig Shift 19761,353 (0.26) 4,976 (0.21) 5,487 (0.33) 4,571 (0.46) 6,887 (0.27) 9,857 (0.40) 19804,135 (0.41) 11,469 (0.37) 14,834 (0.64) 6,616 (0.51) 13,030 (0.40) 14,876 (0.64) 19847,724 (0.53) 25,962 (0.98) 24,150 (0.87) 9,130 (0.63) 27,103 (1.00) 24,150 (0.87) 19883,558 (0.24) 11,671 (0.30) 9,287 (0.28) 5,405 (0.29) 12,562 (0.32) 14,092 (0.36) 19924,497 (0.12) 2,635 (0.08) 28,981 (0.92) 8,256 (0.48) 3,875 (0.11) 28,981 (0.92) 19968,670 (0.25) 1,974 (0.06) 56,620 (1.69) 9,945 (0.49) 4,098 (0.11) 56,620 (1.69) 20008,230 (0.02) 46 (0.04) 75,479 (1.88) 13,225 (0.66) 4,664 (0.66) 75,479 (1.88) ,035 (0.07) 11,952 (0.38) 90,532 (1.64) 18,313 (0.82) 17,399 (0.53) 90,532 (1.64) ,911 (1.04) 54,184 (1.42) 294,749 (5.45) 47,287 (1.41) 54,184 (1.42) 294,749 (5.45) ,237 (0.65) 37,280 (0.82) 330,569 (5.31) 49,586 (1.17) 37,280 (0.82) 330,569 (5.31)

18 Blue Gain States v. Red Gain States Democratic GainRepublican GainDem. States Rep. States Total:WinnerLoserTotal:WinnerLoser 1960*

19 State/YearInitial LeadFinal Margin Gain% of initial lead overcome Missouri/ % New Mexico/200412, % Iowa/200413,25010, % Wisconsin/200411,81311, % New Mexico/ % Iowa/ % Wisconsin/ % Florida/2000* % New Hampshire/ % Nevada/ % Kentucky/199613,46513, % New Hampshire/ % Wyoming/199211,65511, % Nevada/199214,02313, % Ohio/ ,483118,59917, % Colorado/ ,22799,52332, %

20 StateInitial Lead Final MarginGain% of initial lead overcome Hawaii % California36,55135,62372, % Alaska4671,1441, % Missouri34,0819,98024, % Minnesota27,28022,0185, % Texas50,14846,2573, % Pennsylvania131,253116,32614, % Illinois5,0058,8583,853 New Mexico1,6333, Nevada2,3792, National Avg:4,123 National Abs Val Avg:7, Election Gains

21 Uncounted ballots: Ohio, 2008 & 2012 Type Provisional (total CAST)206,859208,087 Provisional (total UNCOUNTED)39,98934,322 Provisional (unregistered)18,86020,119 Provisional (wrong precinct)14,335*9,482** Provisional (flawed or no ID)1, Provisional (envelope flaw***)2,2012,973 Absentee (total CAST)1,744,7531,876,174 Absentee (total UNCOUNTED)23,65313,211 Absentee (% UNCOUNTED)1.35%0.7% *2008 includes both wrong location and right location **2012 is only wrong location, because of court order on right location ballots *** envelope unsigned, or lacking printed name, or both

22 Uncounted (& Disputable) Ballots OhioFlorida 08 provisional cast206,85935, provisional rejected39,98918, provisional cast208,08732, provisional rejected34,322 8, absentee cast1,744,7531,850, absentee rejected23,65318, absentee cast1,876,1742,379, absentee rejected13,21123,206 All Ohio numbers from Secretary of State website; 12 Florida from new Smith/Herron data; 08 Florida is domestic only, as reported in EAC Election Day Survey

23 2008 Total Ballots PB CastPBC /TB PB Rejected PB Rej/ PB Cast PBR /TB PB Counted Count/ PBCast Count /TB AZ2,320,851151, , , CA13,798,557798, , , NY7,722,019279, , , OH5,671,438204, , , CO2,426,25351, , , MD2,661,90551, , , NJ3,910,22071, , , NC4,338,19753, , , PA6,071,35732, , , FL8,514,80935, , , VA3,750,0659, , , MO2,992,0236, , ,

24 2008 provisional ballots

25 X(PB cast rate), Y(PBs rejected/all ballots)

26 Y(PBs counted/PBs cast) X(PB cast/all ballots)

27 Y(PBs counted/all ballots) X(PBs cast/all ballots)

28 Y(“gain during canvass”) X(PBs cast/all ballots)

29 X(absentee cast rate)/Y(“gain”)

30 X(ABR+PBR)/Y(“gain”)

31 X(ABR*PBR)/Y(“gain”)

32 Evaluating Democracy Pew Election Performance Index Pew Election Performance Index Pew Election Performance Index

33 Reform Prospects and Obstacles


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