2Foreign Policy (FP) Under George W. Bush US followed a Neo-isolationist FP from 2000 until 9/11/2001Theory: US should take a step backAvoid always acting as world’s policeman & nation builderReality: Campaign rhetoric gave way to the real world once in officeThe world still was & remained very dangerous & America was not immuneON 9/11/2001 that reality hit home hard =>US Foreign Policy was significantly revised:Result?
3The Bush Doctrine & Unilateralism Out of the ashes of 9/11/2001, a new America Policy & National Security Strategy emergedFocus: Counter Terrorism & Preemptive StrikeNew post 9/11 National Security Policy & Strategy:Wage “preventative war” before our enemies could strikeUsually conducted by the US unilaterally if necessaryUS invasions of Afghanistan & Iraq II are key examples
4Foreign Policy (FP) Versus Domestic Policy (DP) National Interest & its various degrees & levelsVital vs. Important Interests- (who decides?)Text: “Two presidencies”At Home( weak president) vs. Abroad (strong one)- why?Five Sources of Presidential Foreign Policy power:1. The ?_________ & president’s enumerated vs. implied powers2. President’s “inherent” advantages in Foreign Policy3. Role of ?__________ in presidential dealings in Foreign Policy4. Supreme Court Rulings regarding presidential FP actions5. Behavior of Congress when the President takes decisive actionLet’s examines these sources of power in greater detail*
51. The Constitution and Foreign Policy In Article I of our Constitution, the Founding Fathers enumerated Congressional powers to:Provide for common defenseRegulate commercePunish Piracies & Felonies on high seasDeclare WarRaise & support Armies & maintain a NavyMake rules & regulations for land & naval forces (UCMJ)Power of the purse => (fund or not fund military deployments)Article II=> enumerated Presidential powers:Commander in Chief (title or job description?)Power to make treaties (subject to Senate’s ratification)Appoint Ambassadors (Senate also has role- what?)
62. The President’s Inherent Advantages Foreign Policy success depends on (what?):?__________ (quickly seize the initiative)?__________ (secrecy)?__________ (shift priorities as needed & compromise)So Presidential initiatives depend on the venue used:Foreign Policy (FP) vs. Domestic Policy (DP)-Difference between the two WRT presidential freedom of action?FP: Unless Congress acts to halt president’s actions(Military Force Deployment) – it stands- versus:DP: Until Congress agrees to act president’s initiative(Social Security reform)- nothing happens
73. Precedent President’s aggressive interpretation of FP powers Any presidential action establishes precedentIf left unchallenged or the challenge is unsuccessful=>Implied power is successfully established as resultSuccessors have used prior implied powers as a spring board for further expansion of their current powersTruman to present=>Implied power as CINC (Korean War- Text: Box 18-1)Title confers implied power to order troops into combatNow accepted as precedent (though grudgingly)Also depends on the perceived power & popularity (poll numbers) of the president
84. Supreme Court RulingsUS v. Curtiss -Wright Export Corporation (1936)Court Decision: President’s FP powers go beyond ConstitutionImpact: expanded implied Presidential powers in Foreign PolicyUS v. Belmont (‘37)=> executive agreement (vs. Treaty)Result: executive agreements trend up- over 90% (See Box 18-2)Furthermore Court usually refuses to hear challenges on FPEffect: de facto Court support for presidential FP prerogatives & expansion of Presidential implied powersDesire to avoid Presidential/Congress political disputes in FPAlso Court believes FP rulings simply beyond their competence
95. Behavior of CongressPartisan & institutional divisions in Congress=>Results in their lack of unified action to challenge Presidential FP decisionsAlso the belief in strong Presidential leadership in FPPublic & Congress rally round president during crisisElectoral considerations(What if President is right? – avoid voters’ displeasure)Post WWII vs. post Vietnam Congressional behaviorEnd of Vietnam War & Cold War =>More Congressional activism in Foreign PolicyTendency to challenge President more on FP initiatives
10Post 9/11 Congressional Behavior 9/11/2001=> following America’s initial invasion & occupation of Iraq:Congress & Public rallied round the President (typical response)Most deferred to President/CinC on Foreign Policy (FP)As US occupation became more protracted=>Iraqi insurgency grew=> terror bombings escalatedUS casualties grew & Cost of war escalatedUS Public began to lose patience with warIntelligence & rationale for invasion questionedPresident’s popularity declined (32% by Nov 2006)Congress now becoming more assertive in FPGrowing number now calling for firm Exit StrategySECDEF Rumsfeld resigned under pressure following elections
11Key Terms Review: Cold War Policies & Strategies Know & understand (in context) US policies & strategies that shaped US-Soviet relations:Containment policy & strategy:Based on Kennan’s thesis to contain Soviet expansionTruman Doctrine:Articulates basis of US policy of ContainmentMarshall Plan:Economic means (strategy) to achieve ContainmentSoviet counterpart? ?__________ ?__________NSC-68: Military strategy for ContainmentNATO: Military means for Containment Strategy in Europe against SovietsSoviet counterpart? ?__________
12Who Makes U.S. Foreign Policy? PresidentNSCWhite House StaffForeign Policy BureaucraciesCongressAmerican PublicHow much power & influence does each have on FP?*
13Concentric Circle of Foreign Policy Power Let’s examine each more closely
14The White House & National Security Council (NSC) Role of President & Vice PresidentVaries w/administrationGenerally=> President has called all the shotsRecently VP delegated a great deal of power & influence in FP & National Security AffairsCertainly true of this AdministrationNational Security Council (NSC)*Plays key role in formulating American Foreign Policy
15National Security Council (NSC) Created in 1947Statutory Members include:The President & Vice PresidentSecretaries of State & DefenseDirector of National Intelligence & Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff(Advisors to statutory members- subject to change)Other relevant Cabinet Secretaries invited as requiredThe NSC staff is headed up by the National Security Advisor*
16NSC advisor NSC advisor & his or her staff’s role Advises President on National SecurityActs as either an “Honest broker” or “policy advocate”Specific role played & power enjoyed depends on President’s preference & NSC advisor’s personalityNixon & KissingerBush II & RiceCurrent NSC Advisor??__________ ?__________What key components make up the Foreign Policy Bureaucracy
17Foreign Policy Bureaucracy State DepartmentDefense DepartmentDNI & Intel CommunityNSC Staff(Coordinator)Let’s examine their specific Foreign Policy roles
18Department of State (DOS) DOS original responsibilities?Conduct & monitor U.S. ?__________ relationsNow merely one player competing for power in FP BureaucracyDOS employs 30K employees and oversees 250 embassies, consulates & other offices8K Civil Service workers10K foreign nationals overseas10.5K Foreign Service OfficersBudget: $10 BillionCurrent SECSTATE?
19Department of Defense (DOD) Mission?Defend the Nation against ?__________ threatsDOD (or the ?___________) created by NSC Act of 1947Combined Depts of War & NavyNow consists of OSD & the four separate uniformed servicesComprising 700K civilian & 1.4M+ uniformed personnelBudget: now 450B & growingWho now heads the Pentagon?SECDEF ?__________
20FP Bureaucracy: Competition for Power Roles of Department of State (DOS) vs. Defense (DOD)Institutionalized conflict between State & the PentagonCurrent Iraq II is prime example:Major debate soon ensued:Focus: Winning the War versus winning the Peace as wellPersonality drives much of debateWho had the most influence (until recently?)Uniformed Armed Services’ role?Chairman & Joint ChiefsProvide Military judgments in a political world (The Challenge?)Telling ?__________ to Power!
21Intelligence community (IC) & Key Issues Mission: procure information & provide objective analysis & finished intelligence to policymakers (consumers of Intel)Sometimes IC finds itself caught in the middleTrying to maintain clear distinction between objective Intel analysis versus that supporting or advocating a particular policy or strategyKey Issues & Questions:Newly established DNI vs. CIARole and relationship currently unfoldingAre recent changes creating more disruptions & staff layering? – (Risk of reorganization?)Ability to maintain efficient communication and coordination among 16 separate agencies (100K personnel) to “connect the dots”
22Intelligence community: Problems & Concerns Extent to which professional Intelligence expertise & future objective analysis is taken seriously by PolicymakersRecent Intel failure re. Iraqi WMD illustrates the problem:Subtle pressure to tell the boss what he wants to hear- Impact?Tendency to downplay analysis that disagrees with Policy MakerOften referred to as: “cherry picking”Another complication: all Agencies compete with each other for power, influence, & $$$ (Budget share) – Result?Tends to drive ?_________ to include Agency’s interests & agendaTo include political agenda of Political Appointees heading the Agency (who want to please their political masters)
23Congress & Foreign Policy Constitution (Article I) assigns Congress explicit powersResult: Considerable theoretical influence in foreign policyBefore WWI & II, Congress tended to assert a greater role in Foreign PolicyDuring the 1950s and 1960s Congress typically deferred to the Executive Branch(Since WWII & start of Cold War)During 1970s and 1980s Congressional activism in foreign policy grew (Post Vietnam Wae & Watergate)Post 9/11 Congress tended to defer to President (at first)Now it is re-asserting itself as war becomes more unpopular
24Congressional Influence Over Foreign Policy Extent of Congressional power & influence over Foreign Policy varies over time=>Early Cold War era vs. post-Watergate/Vietnam WarPost 9/11 vs. Protracted Iraq occupation & insurgency3 ways Congress influences Foreign Policy:1. ?______________ legislation$$$ appropriations shape policy => “power of the purse”2. ?______________ legislationHow laws & regulations must be applied wrt Foreign Policy3. Efforts to shape Public ?______________(Democrats vs. GOP on success or failure of Iraq II War)Key examples:
25Public Opinion & Foreign Policy Two options for the Public to shape Foreign Policy:1. Join interest groups & lobby Congress & President2. Vote for candidates aligned with their political viewsPublic seldom able to effect day to day polices (Iraq II)Often policy makers decide with little regard to the Public –why?Public lack ?________ ________(TS Intelligence & expertise)Apathy (most don’t even know or care where crisis spot is)More concerned with domestic & economic issuesPublic usually rallies around President once conflict startsInitial resistance to deployment => then give full active supportBut with time support will wane if casualties grow and/or progress seems to take too long at too high a priceThen the Public makes its concerns known & with major impact
26Impact of Public Opinion on Foreign Policy Public Opinion provide decision makers with very little guidance, but…Two indirect effects of Public Opinion:1. Constrains ?____________ policies which can be consideredExample: Vietnam legacy => Vietnam syndrome2. Determines Washington’s FP priorities (with the media)Iraq II example=> looters initially brushed off by RumsfeldMedia alerted public & public became concerned re. Iraqi MuseumAs result FBI went to Iraq to track down stolen antiquitiesRecent Public concern for Intel failure wrt WMDForced Administration to adjust reason for invasion (democracy)Then forced to defend itself against critics (cherry picking Intel?)Now the Administration is fighting against an early withdrawal
27Challenges of the Post–Cold War Era Major debate continues:What should the US role be in the post-Cold War era?Disagreements over Goals & Strategies & Change:Terror strike of 9/11/2001 changed everythingDebate now centers on strategy to prevent 2nd attackPreventive War & pre-emptive strikes (?______ Doctrine)(Containment strategy no longer viable option)- why??_________ ________ no longer exists & suicide bombers can’t be logically deterredHomeland Security & Defense at what expense?What’s at stake: Cost in $$$* & personal Freedoms
28US Defense Spending (in $$$: 1962-2010) Another way to look at Defense Spending?*
29DOD Budget (as % of GDP: 1948-2005) Korean War%ofGDPVietnam War(High point)Cold WarEnds9/11Iraq II
30Future Challenges to US Foreign Policy Disagreements about the goals and strategies of American foreign policy for 21st centuryAn ever changing foreign policy agendaCold War => Post Cold War => Post 9/11 ThreatsUnilateral versus multilateral* FP approachHow are they different?*
31Unilateralism vs. Multilateralism ?______________:The tendency of the US to act alone in foreign affairs without consulting other countries.?______________:Three or more Nations cooperate together to solve some common foreign policy problemParticular approach selected will depend on the majorFP problems the US will face during the 21st Century
32Potential Problems in US Foreign Policy for 21st Century The United States will face complex problems in:?______________ proliferation (North Korea & Iran)Military ?____________ (The Middle East & exiting Iraq)?______ policy (Trade imbalance w/China & ME Oil prices)?__________ (Global interdependence & domestic impact)“?_______-mestic” issues (Foreign Policy impact at home)?________ rights (American ideals vs. US National interests)?__________ Security (Balancing security with liberties)The ?_____________ threat (Future “9/11s”?)The image is Microsoft clip art
33The Instrument of US Foreign Policy for 21st Century But whatever FP decisions US political leaders take, it will be left to ?__________, to carry them out…
34For service as set forth in the following CITATION: The President of the United States in the name of The Congresstakes pride in presenting the MEDAL OF HONOR posthumously toLIEUTENANT MICHAEL P. MURPHY UNITED STATES NAVYFor service as set forth in the following CITATION:For conspicuous gallantry and intrepidity at the risk of his life and above and beyond the call of duty as the leader of a special reconnaissance element with Naval Special Warfare task unit Afghanistan on 27 and 28 June While leading a mission to locate a high-level anti-coalition militia leader, Lieutenant Murphy demonstrated extraordinary heroism in the face of grave danger in the vicinity of Asadabad, Konar Province, Afghanistan. On 28 June 2005, operating in an extremely rugged enemy-controlled area, Lieutenant Murphy's SEAL team was discovered by anti-coalition militia sympathizers, who revealed their position to Taliban fighters. As a result, between 30 and 40 enemy fighters besieged his four member team. Demonstrating exceptional resolve, Lieutenant Murphy valiantly led his men in engaging the large enemy force. The ensuing fierce firefight resulted in numerous enemy casualties, as well as the wounding of all four members of the team. Ignoring his own wounds and demonstrating exceptional composure, Lieutenant Murphy continued to lead and encourage his men. When the primary communicator fell mortally wounded, Lieutenant Murphy repeatedly attempted to call for assistance for his beleaguered teammates. Realizing the impossibility of communicating in the extreme terrain, and in the face of almost certain death, he fought his way into open terrain to gain a better position to transmit a call. This deliberate, heroic act deprived him of cover, exposing him to direct enemy fire. Finally achieving contact with his headquarters, Lieutenant Murphy maintained his exposed position while he provided his location and requested immediate support for his team. In his final act of bravery, he continued to engage the enemy until he was mortally wounded, gallantly giving his life for his country and for the cause of freedom. By his selfless leadership, Lieutenant Murphy reflected great credit upon himself and upheld the highest traditions of the United States Naval Service. Signed George W. Bush
35The Last Assignment (Thursday): Review & prepare for Final ExamCome prepared to ask your questions(last chance to clarify any uncertainty)Essay Question Prep Review (Handout last week)Turn in your Research Paper (Thursday)Include Bibliography and end or footnotes/sources citedMake sure your presentation of both sides is balancedNow: Quiz IV on Part 4Note: we will review Quiz IV results on Thursday
36Chapter 18: KEY TERMSCold War: A phrase used to describe the high level of tension and distrust that characterized relations between the Soviet Union and the United States from the late 1940s until the early 1990s.Containment: A bedrock principle of U.S. foreign policy from the 1940s to the 1980s that emphasized the need to prevent communist countries, especially the Soviet Union, from expanding the territory they controlled.Detente: A policy the Nixon administration followed to develop more cordial relations with the Soviet Union.Engagement: The policy of encouraging U.S. trade and investment in a country in an effort to encourage it to pursue policies more to America’s liking.Enlargement: The policy President Bill Clinton proposed as a substitute for containment. It calls on the United States to promote the emergence of market democracies; that is, countries that combine a free market economic system with a democratic political system.Executive agreements: International agreements that, unlike treaties, do not require the approval of two-thirds of the Senate to become binding on the United States.Foreign Service Officers: Career professional diplomats who work for the Department of State.Free trade: An economic policy that holds that lowering trade barriers will benefit the economies of all the countries involved.Globalism: The idea that the United States should be prepared to use military force around the globe to defend its political and economic interests.Globalization: The process by which growing economic relations and technological change make countries increasingly interdependent.
37Chapter 18: KEY TERMS (2)Intermestic issues: Issues such as trade, the environment, and drug trafficking that affect both domestic and foreign interests.Isolationism: A foreign policy built on the principle of avoiding formal military and political alliances with other countries.Marshall Plan: A multibillion-dollar U.S. aid program in the late 1940s and early 1950s that helped Western European countries rebuild their economies in the wake of World War.Monroe Doctrine: A basic principle of U.S. foreign policy that dates back to a warning President James Monroe issued in 1823 that the United States would resist further European efforts to intervene in the affairs of the Western Hemisphere.Multilateralism: An approach in which three or more countries cooperate for the purpose of solving some common problem.National interest: The idea that the United States has certain interests in international relations that most Americans agree on.National Missile Defense (NMD): A weapons system that, if it can be made to work, would potentially protect the United States and possibly its allies against attack by long-range ballistic missiles.Neo-conservativism: Recent resurgence of Conservative ideology, especially toward Foreign Policy.Neo-isolationism: The idea that the United States should reduce its role in world affairs and return to a foreign policy similar to the one it pursued before World War II.North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO): A military alliance founded in 1949 for the purpose of defending Western Europe from attack. Members of NATO include the United States, Canada, and fourteen European countries.
38Chapter 18: KEY TERMS (3) Sovereignty: The power of self-rule. Third World: A term loosely defined to mean the developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America.Truman Doctrine: A policy, announced by President Truman in 1947, that the United States would oppose communist attempts to overthrow or conquer non-communist countries.Two presidencies: The argument that presidents have much greater influence over the content of foreign policy than the content of domestic policy.Unilateralism: The tendency of the United States to act alone in foreign affairs without consulting other countries.World Trade Organization (WTO): The international trade agency that began operation in 1995 as the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.