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HAVE THE YOUNGER POPULATION LOST INTEREST IN CARS? An Interim Report Alan E. Pisarski.

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Presentation on theme: "HAVE THE YOUNGER POPULATION LOST INTEREST IN CARS? An Interim Report Alan E. Pisarski."— Presentation transcript:

1 HAVE THE YOUNGER POPULATION LOST INTEREST IN CARS? An Interim Report Alan E. Pisarski

2 The Question is: are younger people less oriented to private vehicles or not? It is argued that the younger population:  Is more cell-phone addicted;  Is more high density oriented;  Is less interested in mobility;  Thinks cars are for old folks;  Thinks walk, bike, transit are the new thing; Really? Lots more serious study needed!

3 In the midst of this research  As is typical these days in Washington people find what they want to find; Lets call it advocacy analysis  Washington is something like ground central for the idea  Washington, Arlington and Alexandria are in the top ten nationally of areas with the highest percentage of persons living alone – above 40% Joel Kotkin calls such places: Graduate Student Resorts!

4 In the midst of this research  The really tough dichotomy regarding this question and almost everything else today is:  how much is a product of the present pathetic economy and associated issues; and/or  how much really is a new trend?  Time will tell; but here’s some of the key considerations in separating bubble from trend

5 Among the key factors  Incomes  Youth & Parent Unemployment  Age and Ethnicity factors  High vehicle operating costs  Gas  Insurance  Maintenance  New State Graduated Licensing

6 The share of younger population is declining The boomers learn to drive

7 The excitement about one person households is way overstated There are 30 million persons in one person households; About 19 million of which are women only about 1.3 million are under 30 years of age

8 Mostly “little old ladies”

9 Minorities are a Major Share of our Young Population ACS At least a third of the population below the age of 35 are minorities More likely to be low income and to have unemployment in the family

10 OVERALL, BLACK & HISPANIC POPULATIONS HAD BIG GAINS IN AUTO OWNERSHIP THIS DECADE – SOME LOSSES SINCE RECESSION IN 2000 ALL 10.3% BLACK 23.8% HISPAN 17.2% IN 2009 ALL 8.9% BLACK 20% HISPAN 12.4% ( WHT NON-H 6.4%)

11 More young people living at home Source: US Census TAD-1. Young Adults Living At Home: 1960 to Present

12 Younger people have “staff” ! NHTS analysis FHWA

13 A key factor affecting young – Graduated Licensing  Begun in mid nineties; often goes in 3 phases  Learner stage  Intermediate stage  Full privilege  Age limits in learner stage  Only 1 state does not control length of learner stage - 3 months minimum  49 states & DC ban night driving in intermediate stage  Minimum age  45 states restrict psgrs  46 require supervised driving  Minimum age for full licensing  Driver’s Ed. has been a casualty of school budgets COINCIDES WITH IMPROVED SAFETY AND TRAVEL CHANGES

14 Not much change in overall licensing Young women ahead of men

15 Insurance costs have been rising insurance rose from $778 in 2000 to $886 in 2006 and to $1,010 in 2010 up 30% in the decade Adding a male under 25 can raise family car insurance 2x

16 THE BIG DRIVER: JOBS NHTS FHWA

17 YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATES Unemploy- ment in 2001 was about half of present Nov % Blk 41.3% % Blk 25.2% DatesALL 16-19White Black HISP May April April May May all Hisp April all Hisp

18 Re Unemployment PEW CENTER STUDY Feb 2010  Pew Center – 37% of young respondents either out of work or underemployed. Highest in 3 decades of surveying.  High percentages of college grads are unemployed or under-employed in jobs that don’t require their degrees.  W. Post Nov 2012 (of AU law grads only 1/3 w jobs in field; 80% have loans av $150k)

19 The African-American Population Dramatic declines in workersMixed picture on Licensing

20 A similar picture among Hispanics Sharp declines in workersAgain mixed

21 White Non-Hisp. also saw declines Better situation - Pattern sameMore decline?

22 Transit shares rose among minorities – are they the ones most likely to lose car access? LIFO?

23 A little closer look- all ages grew Big jump in groupLess so here

24 Miles driven are down far more among non-workers of either sex Male non-workers down 27% Male Workers down 14% Females 14%08% age groups did a little better Male 22%/12% Female 11%/07 % NHTS FHWA

25 VMT trend is not just weak economy or gas prices- it’s a long term demographic trend

26 TEST: PICK OUT THE YOUNG! THE CHOICES ARE: under 16; 16-20; 21-35; 36-65; over 65

27 DID ANYONE GET IT RIGHT?

28 Transportation is more important to the young in terms of spending Both under 25’s and group spend more on transportation as share of total expenditures and as share of total income CEX

29 They are first in transportation spending % of SpendingUnder 25 years years All consumersNote Transportation18.3%18.4%16.7%All others under 17% Also lead in spending per vehicle

30 And on other good stuff % of SpendingUnder 25 years years All consumersNote Transportation18.3%18.4%16.7%All others under 17% Also lead in spending per vehicle Food away from home 6.6%5.8%5.3%1 st and 2 nd Alcoholic beverages1.4%1.1%.92%All others under 1%

31 Lead in spending per vehicle

32 Transit is more important to young than other age groups but still minor overall All consumer units spend less than 1% of their transportation spending on transit Under 25’s spend almost 2%; they spend 3 times more on air travel than on transit

33 Decline in hh trips If we think of trips as mandatory or discretionary then middle income hh would have most cost pressure and most discretionary travel to cut

34 Some concluding thoughts:  Yes they love their cell phones, texting and cafés  Yes they spend lots of time on games  Yes they love the environment  Some of them love the Graduate Student Resorts  But the economy seems to be a perfectly adequate explanation of declining use of autos recently, abetted by some of the other costs exacted on the young – and we never even mentioned college loans! (AU lawyer grads 80% have loans av 150k 1/3 w jobs in field) We need to give it time --- and to produce more un-biased data collection and analysis instead of advocacy analysis  A new study by AAA Safety Foundation will be out soon that will help

35 And MANY thanks to: Adella Santos Susan Liss Nancy McGuckin Elaine Murakami who helped greatly with the data sets from the National Household Travel Survey Alan E. Pisarski alanpisarski.com TIME WILL TELL -- Thank You !

36 Get shares of pop hisp black 01 A third of age group is minority pop


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