1. PROF. KEES STIGTER, PH.D. AGROMET VISION NETHERLANDS AND INDONESIA ROVING SEMINAR VI, 2014 Agroforestry and (Micro)Climate Change 1

2. Lecture VI More Recent Progress and Additions in Agroforestry 2

3. INTERMEZZO FROM OUTSIDE THE AGROFORESTRY PAPER PART II 3

4. HOW A CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM IS ENCOURAGING ADOPTION OF RESEARCH FINDINGS BY LYNNETTE WOOD PRESIDENT OF BLUE MADRONA LLC., A SUBCONTRACTOR TO THE ARCC PROGRAM 4

5. THE ASSESSMENT WAS DEVELOPED WITH THREE CHARACTERISTICS WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO ADOPTION OF ITS FINDINGS AMONG PEOPLE AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND AMONG INSTITUTIONS WITH THE MANDATE TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT : CREDIBILITY, SALIENCE, AND LEGITIMACY. 5

6. THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE DESCRIBED IN THE SCIENCE-POLICY LITERATURE AS CRITICAL FOR TRANSLATING SCIENCE FINDINGS INTO POLICY AND PLANNING. IN THE CONTEXT OF THE MALAWI ASSESSMENT, THESE CHARACTERISTICS ARE DEFINED AS FOLLOWS : 6

7. CREDIBILITY REFERS TO THE PERCEIVED QUALITY AND ADEQUACY OF THE EVIDENCE AND FINDINGS PRESENTED IN THE ASSESSMENT. TO BE FULLY CREDIBLE, THE EVIDENCE AND FINDINGS MUST ALSO BE AUTHORITATIVE, BELIEVABLE, AND TRUSTED. 7

8. THE MALAWI ASSESSMENT ESTABLISHED CREDIBILITY BY COMPILING AN EVIDENCE BASE FOR DECISION MAKING, USING THE BEST AVAILABLE DATA AND INFORMATION, BY APPLYING RECOGNIZED ANALYSIS PROCEDURES, AND BY CLEARLY COMMUNICATING THE LIMITATIONS OF THE ANALYSIS. 8

9. A RECOGNIZED CLIMATE RESEARCH ORGANIZATION [THE CLIMATE SYSTEM ANALYSIS GROUP OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN] CONDUCTED THE CLIMATE PORTION OF THE ANALYSIS, WHICH LENT AUTHORITY TO THE RESULTS, FURTHER INCREASING THEIR CREDIBILITY. 9

10. SALIENCE IS DEFINED AS THE PERCEIVED RELEVANCE AND TIMELINESS OF THE INFORMATION PROVIDED AND INTEGRATION OF CONTEXTUAL FACTORS. THE ARCC PROGRAM ACHIEVED SALIENCE BY FULLY EMBEDDING THE ASSESSMENT RESULTS IN THE LOCAL CONTEXT. 10

11. DURING THE COURSE OF THE ASSESSMENT, THE TEAM CARRIED OUT IN-DEPTH, PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISALS IN NINE REPRESENTATIVE VILLAGES IN EIGHT DISTRICTS. THESE WERE SUPPLEMENTED BY APPROXIMATELY 50 KEY INFORMANT INTERVIEWS. 11

12. THESE INTERACTIONS GREATLY ENHANCED THE TEAM'S UNDERSTANDING OF THE LOCAL CONTEXT, ALLOWING A WIDER AUDIENCE TO ACCEPT THE ASSESSMENT RESULTS BEYOND JUST USAID. ONCE THE ASSESSMENT WAS COMPLETED, THE TEAM STRUCTURED ITS FINDINGS IN A WAY THAT DIRECTLY ADDRESSED THE MOST CRITICAL NEEDS AND RELEASED THE RESULTS IN A TIMELY MANNER ALIGNED WITH INVESTMENT CYCLES. 12

13. LEGITIMACY IS THE VALUE WHEREBY ASSESSMENT RESULTS ARE RECOGNIZED AND ACCEPTED AS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF REALITY. BUT "REALITY" IS COLORED BY INDIVIDUAL OR GROUP VALUES, BELIEFS, AND PERSPECTIVES; THEY MAY ALSO BE COLORED BY THE PERCEPTION OF THE TRANSPARENCY OF THE ASSESSMENT PROCESS. 13

14. TO ESTABLISH LEGITIMACY, THE TEAM ENGAGED STAKEHOLDERS AT CRITICAL POINTS THROUGHOUT THE ASSESSMENT -- DURING ITS DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION, AND WHEN THE TEAM BEGAN ASSESSING RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ADAPTATION OPTIONS. THE PROCESS WAS INCLUSIVE -- IT PROVIDED A VOICE TO MANY ACTORS -- AND IT WAS TRANSPARENT. 14

15. THE TEAM ALSO SHARED THE FINDINGS WITH FARMERS AND FARMER ASSOCIATIONS, WHO VALIDATED THE HISTORICAL CLIMATE TREND ANALYSES WITH THEIR OWN REAL-WORLD EXPERIENCES OF ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS THAT WERE ALREADY OCCURRING. 15

16. THE RESULTS OF THE ASSESSMENT INFORMED A PARTICIPATORY OPTIONS ANALYSIS THAT ENGAGED DECISION MAKERS AND ENCOURAGED THEM TO EXPLORE APPROACHES TO STRENGTHEN ADAPTIVE CAPACITY AND COPE WITH RISK ACROSS COMMUNITIES AND INSTITUTIONS. 16

17. WHILE MANY PROGRAMS ARE INVOLVED WITH CONDUCTING RESEARCH AND GENERATING NEW KNOWLEDGE, TRANSLATING THE RESULTS OF THEIR EFFORTS SO THAT THEY ARE USED BY DECISION-MAKERS IS OFTEN OVERLOOKED. 17

18. IN THE CASE OF ARCC'S PROGRAM, GENERATING AND PRESENTING ASSESSMENT RESULTS DEEMED TO BE CREDIBLE, SALIENT, AND LEGITIMATE BY DECISION MAKERS WAS ESSENTIAL FOR IMPROVING THEIR UNDERSTANDING OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENABLING THEM TO ACT EFFECTIVELY TO ADDRESS THEM. 18

19. MAKING THE ENTIRE PROCESS INCLUSIVE, AND KEEPING LINES OF COMMUNICATION OPEN, INCREASES THE CHANCES THAT STAKEHOLDERS AND BENEFICIARIES WILL EMBRACE CHANGE. 19

20. END OF INTERMEZZO FROM OUTSIDE THE AGROFORESTRY PAPER PART II 20

21. C. Coping with increasing climatic variability using agroforestry 21

22. Subchapter 5.2 (Coping with Climate Variability and Climate Change) Sections - Improving the issuing, absorption and use of climate forecast information in agroforestry - Sustainable development and use of ecosystems with non-forest trees 22

23. In Subchapter 2 of Chapter III.5 (Coping with Climate Variability and Climate Change, Intermezzo 6), it would now be argued that increasing climatic variability is part of climate change, so a more appropriate heading would be “Coping with increasing climatic variability”. 23

24. However, it is wise to follow the literature on such matters closely as the statistics are highly debated and there is often doubt regarding statements about increasing climatic variability. Nevertheless, the best proof is provided by tree ring studies. 24

25. Various techniques have been described to calibrate variation in ring-width with variations in climate and reconstruct past variations in climate. The simplest calibrations usually involve few statistics and rely upon biological insight for recognition and documentation of some type of relationship. 25

26. Climate data are converted to growth estimates and compared to the actual growth measurements. Variation in ring-width is then used to infer past variation in climate. 26

27. For Iberian pine forests, the greater occurrence of extreme years and increased sensitivity in the second half of the 20 th century were in agreement with an increment in the variability of precipitation during the growing period. 27

28. Variability in tree growth was positively correlated with variability in precipitation, with which radial trunk growth was negatively correlated. 28

29. Thus, a change in tree-growth pattern and the climatic response of the forests examined since the mid-20 th century were detected and linked to an increase in water stress. These temporal trends were consistent with the observed warming of the climate and the increased variability in precipitation. 29

30. More recent work than covered in the second Sub-chapter of Chapter III. 5 (Intermezzo 6) shows that increasing variability in rainfall is associated with lower tree cover in moist tropical forests in all continents. However, in the dry tropics, the effects of greater year-to-year variability in rainfall depend on the continent involved. 30

31. Higher overall inter-annual variation in rainfall has positive (South America), negative (Australia) or neutral (Africa) effects on tree cover in drylands. The effects of climatic variability in tropical drylands appear to depend on the balance between extreme wet and dry events, as well as the opportunities trees have to grow during rainy periods. 31

32. This conclusion affects agropastoralists whose livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture and is highly vulnerable to ecological disturbance caused by increasing climatic variability. 32

33. Although agropastoralists cannot adequately feed their animals in times of extreme weather, such as floods and droughts, disrupting their major source of livelihood, most do not practice pasture management and fodder conservation. 33

34. Of the 21 tree browse species identified by agropastoralists, 18 were found to be important during droughts and eight during floods. Most agropastoralists neither knew how to plant browse species nor how to manage them for better and sustainable use in feeding their animals. 34

35. Given the above conclusions regarding the essential opportunities to grow during the rains, extension should assist pastoralists to cope with these conditions by domesticating such tree species. Both people and trees can adapt to change on various time scales (Intermezzo 8). 35

36. INTERMEZZO 8 How Trees and People Can Co-adapt To Climate Change (Van Noordwijk et al., 2011) 36

37. Climate change, especially increased variability, affects landscapes, human livelihoods and trees in many ways. Both people and trees can adapt to change at various time scales, but the current rate of change implies that advance planning is needed as part of integrated rural development. 37

38. Lessons learnt from “best practices” of rural development and natural resource management in the tropics suggest that developments that can be shared more widely in the field and relevant research to support their refinement are required. 38

39. The voluntary, conditional and pro-poor aspects of financial rewards will help to bring the voice of grassroots stakeholders into the international and national decision-making processes of how to deal with climate change to ensure realism and efficiency in climate change adaptation. 39

40. This is yet another strand to be integrated in rural development programmes. The argument for such an approach is built on the underlying concepts of climate change, rural livelihoods and multi-functionality of landscapes. 40

41. The argument for such an approach is also built on the specific roles of trees and farmers as providers of environmental and climate services in agricultural landscapes. However, trees themselves are vulnerable to climate change and co-adaptation is needed, and possible. 41

42. END OF INTERMEZZO 8 42

43. Common land provides smallholder farmers in Africa with firewood, timber and feed for livestock, and is used to complement human diets through collection of edible non-timber forest products (NTFPs). 43

44. Farmers were willing to cultivate trees and organise communal conservation of indigenous fruit trees, leading to prioritization of pressing land use problems and identification of the support needed. 44

45. This support needed included fast-growing trees for firewood, inputs for crop production, knowledge on the cultivation of indigenous fruit trees and clear regulations and compliance with rules for extraction of NTFPs. 45

46. Well-managed communal resources can provide a strong tool to maintain and increase the ability of rural communities to cope with an increasingly variable climate. 46

47. Nevertheless, although less is known about inter-annual variability than mean yields, in addition to decreasing cereal yields everywhere during the current century, the available data indicate that variability in yield is likely to increase. 47

48. It is good to remember here that we are dealing with Recent Progress and Additions in Agroforestry, on which we started in Lecture V. So far we have handled (see also Intermezzo 6 in Lecture V) A. Foundations to build on (Lecture V); B. Strategic use of climate services for agroforestry (Lecture V); 48

49. C. Coping with increasing climatic variability using agroforestry (this Lecture VI) In Lecture VII we will deal with (be aware of changed titles, in comparison with Intermezzo 6, that I explained or will explain): D. Coping with extreme weather and climate events using agroforestry 49

50. In Lecture VIII we will start with: E. Meteorological advisories/services of weather forecasting in agroforestry In Lecture VIII we will also handle: F. Developing strategies to cope with risks in and with agroforestry Again note the adaptations made to these headings compared with Intermezzo 6. I will explain. 50

51. Conclusions - Increasing variability in rainfall is associated with lower tree cover in moist tropical forests. Effects of climatic variability in tropical drylands appear to depend on the balance between extreme wet and dry events, and the opportunities for trees to grow during rainy periods. - Communal resources can provide a strong tool to maintain and increase the ability of communities to cope with an increasingly variable climate. Less is known about inter-annual variability than mean yields, with decreasing cereal yields everywhere during the current century, the available data indicate that variability in yield is likely to increase. 51

52. Recommendations - Generating and presenting assessment results deemed to be credible, salient, and legitimate by decision makers was essential for improving their understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and enabling them to act effectively to address them. - Making the entire process inclusive, and keeping lines of communication open, increases the chances that stakeholders and beneficiaries will embrace change. 52

53. - Lessons learnt from “best practices” of rural development and natural resource management in the tropics suggest that developments that can be shared more widely in the field and relevant research to support their refinement are required. - This is another strand to be integrated in rural development programmes. The argument for this approach is built on the underlying concepts of climate change, rural livelihoods and multi-functionality of landscapes. 53