Presentation on theme: "How does corruption affect economic growth in Mexico? A View on Drug Wars Beth Blankenheim Liseth Bucheli Arnav Doshi Abbie Gudmundson Jim Huynh."— Presentation transcript:
How does corruption affect economic growth in Mexico? A View on Drug Wars Beth Blankenheim Liseth Bucheli Arnav Doshi Abbie Gudmundson Jim Huynh
OUTLINE What is Corruption? How are drug cartels related to corruption? What are the economic effects of corruption? General economic effects Economic effects of cartels in Mexico How do drug cartels function? What is America’s role in the Mexican drug wars? What is being done to address this problem? Conclusions
According to Carl Fredrich (1972 p.18): “Corruption is a kind of behavior which deviates from the norm actually prevalent or behaved to prevail in a given context, such as the political. It is deviant behavior associated with a particular motivation, namely that of private gain at public expense.” Corruption can be defined as “the abuse of public power for private benefit ”(European Physical Journal)
W HAT IS C ORRUPTION ? Corruption can work to enable an informal economy through various ways: Bribery Whenever someone in a position of power uses his or her discretion and monopoly power to accept or extort a bribe from a civilian for personal or institutional gain Bribes can be solicited or unsolicited, in return for non- enforcement of an illegal activity Diversion of Police Resources When officers sell or provide their legitimate police services to criminals These criminals can be primarily drug lords, prostitutes, and drug dealers (Sayed and Bruce, 1998). Kickbacks and Similar Payments Characterized as a transfer of income from one party to another by illegal arrangement
W HAT IS CORRUPTION ? Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) Developed by Transparency International, a global civil organization supported by various global institutions Mexico CPI= 3.5 Source: Franko, pg. 162
H OW ARE DRUG CARTELS RELATED TO CORRUPTION ? The drug war fosters corruption because it increases private gain (money) at public expense (violence) The drug war and its actors employ many forms of corruption in order to carry out illegal operations The drug war is a very serious problem and one that is unique to Latin America The economic magnitude makes this an important issue.
G ENERAL E CONOMIC E FFECTS Corruption can affect economic growth in a number of different ways through: Foreign direct investment Tax revenues Allocation of Public services The quality of goods and services Rationality of transactions
G ENERAL E CONOMIC E FFECTS According to World Bank research, countries who fight corruption and improve the rule of law can increase national income as much as four times in the long run Estimate for Colombia suggests that 1% of GDP is lost to corruption Estimate for Brazil suggest that each citizen pays $6,000 annually due to corruption Average Mexican household spend 14% of income bribing government officials Correlation between higher CPI and GPA per capita: Source: European Physical Journal
G ENERAL E CONOMIC E FFECTS Using CPI index as a measure of Corruption, Research finds that less corrupt countries receive more foreign investments over a period from 1999-2005 (European Physical Journal) The findings of this study are similar to the findings of other literature Source: European Physical Journal
G ENERAL E CONOMIC E FFECTS Tax revenues is affected by corruption in two ways: Direct: Sales Tax Income Tax Import/Export tax Value Added Tax Indirect: The reduction of economic activity
G ENERAL E CONOMIC E FFECTS Corruption can lead to higher prices for public services: In Paraguay, the cost of roads in rural areas increased from $13 Million to $24 Million due to kickbacks Additionally, corruption can lead to irrational investments (i.e. contracts not awarded to those with best return) (Seligon)
S PECIFIC E CONOMIC E FFECTS R ELATED TO D RUG C ARTELS IN M EXICO
E CONOMIC EFFECTS OF CARTELS IN M EXICO Mexico’s GDP composition: Agriculture 4% Industry 31% Services 65% Tourism (CIA) Tourism is the third most important economic activity in Mexico, representing 8.3% of the nation’s GDP. The eighth most visited country in the world with over 20 million tourists a year. (WTTC) For 2010, Mexico is expected to generate 1,601 billion pesos ($122 billion US)
E CONOMIC EFFECTS OF CARTELS IN M EXICO Profits have steadily declined as the drug cartels unleash unremitting violence against rivals and the Mexican government. Cartel tactics are becoming more violent in retaliation. There are tourist sites that are already affected extremely or slightly by the Mexican drug fiasco; other places are waiting in premonition of declines in business. The peso has devalued with respect to the US dollar so it is now cheaper to spend in Mexico.
In Tijuana, a once-thriving city just across the border from San Diego, the increasingly deadly drug war has touched almost every part of life. In 2005, 4 million people visited Tijuana. In 2008, the number dropped to 400,000. Local residents too are fleeing in fear from the local drug cartel (Tijuana Cartel). (Worldfocus)
E CONOMIC EFFECTS OF CARTELS IN M EXICO Some say that Mexico’s war on drugs is a war on its economy: The loss of the drug business is estimated to shrink Mexico’s economy by 63% in the short run. (Global Envision) Bank loans are expensive and hard to get, so traffickers have stepped in to provide small-business loans. U.S. Treasury’s blacklist of businesses (2006) suspected of drug relation: a day care, a gym, an electronics store, meatpacking plants, dairies, hotels, horse stables, gas stations, and a mining company. (USATODAY) Estimates say that cartels have laundered more than $689 million in the banks of the state of Sinaloa, and that drug money is driving nearly 20% of the state’s economy. (UNESCO)
H OW DO DRUG CARTELS FUNCTION ? Drug cartels are criminal organizations developed with the primary purpose of promoting and controlling drug trafficking operations. They range from loosely-managed agreements among various drug traffickers to formalized commercial enterprises.
H OW DO DRUG CARTELS FUNCTION ? Although Mexican cartels have existed for sometime, but have become increasingly powerful in recent years with the demise of the Medelin (1993) and Cali (1995) cartels in Colombia. Closure of the cocaine trafficking route through Florida also pushed cocaine traffic to Mexico, increasing the role of Mexican cartels in cocaine trafficking.
H OW DO DRUG CARTELS FUNCTION ? The National Drug Intelligence Center now considers Mexican drug cartels as dominating the U.S. illicit drug market. Colombian groups continue to "maintain significant control over South American cocaine and heroin smuggling and distribution in the eastern United States, although their role has diminished as that of Mexican groups has expanded.
H OW DO DRUG CARTELS FUNCTION ? According to the Mexican government there are seven drug cartels operating in Mexico. The Mexican government reports that the major cartels – Gulf, Sinaloa, and Juárez -- are present in much of Mexico. In recent years, the major cartels have formed alliances with one another; the two rival alliances now compete for turf.
H OW DO DRUG CARTELS FUNCTION ? Several cartels have also formed an alliance known as "The Federation." The Federation is led by representatives of the Sinaloa, Juárez, and Valencia cartels. The cartels work together, but remain independent organizations. The Federation tries to limit the supply hence keeping the prices high. However, the incentive to cheat is too high.
H OW DO DRUG CARTELS FUNCTION ? BEFORE ALLIANCESAFTER ALLIANCES
H OW DO DRUG CARTELS FUNCTION ? Cartel A Cartel B Dominant Strategy: Cartel A “Not collude” (20, 1) Cartel B “not Collude” (1, 20) Nash Equilibrium: “Not Collude” (5, 5) Pareto Efficiency dominate over Nash Equilibrium (10,10) > (5,5)
H OW DO DRUG CARTELS FUNCTION ? Drug war-related violence has exploded across Mexico since Felipe Calderon launched military assault against the cartels beginning in 2006. Since then, over 18,000 people connected with drug trafficking has been killed.
W HAT IS A MERICA ’ S ROLE IN M EXICAN D RUG WARS ?
Mexico is the main supplier of marijuana to the U.S. and is also a major trafficker of methamphetamine and heroin. Moreover, ~90% of cocaine entering the U.S. transits through Mexico. Mexican drug cartels now operate in almost every region of the United States and bring in as much as $23 billion a year in revenue. (Washington Post, 2007) U.S. criticism of drug trafficking and crime in Mexico is perceived by many to be unfair because most of the drugs being trafficked through Mexican territory are for consumption in the U.S. (Congressional Research Study, 2007)
W HAT IS A MERICA ’ S ROLE IN M EXICAN D RUG WARS ? U.S. law enforcement officials estimate that $12 to 15 billion a year flows from the United States to the Mexican traffickers. And that is just the bulk currency amount, actual dollar bills, and doesn't include all the money sent by wire transfers. (MSNBC, 2008) ~95% of weapons seized come the U.S. which fosters violence. “We need the U.S. to stay committed in this war in reducing demand, in stopping the flow of weapons and stopping the flow of cash.“ -- Medina Mora Mexican Attorney General
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ?
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? Calderón has employed 24,000 additional soldiers & federal police to halt illicit drug production. NGO’s call for increased penalties to deter growth in cartel membership. Obama administration has taken steps to seize drug money as well as raise shared intelligence spending by 13%. The U.S. maintains a policy of interdiction and eradication. Prohibition increases profitability. Eradication leads to negative externalities.
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? P RICE D1D1 Q UANTITY D2D2 S1S1 Q2Q2 Q1Q1 P2P2 P1P1
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? Washington Office on Latin America calls for education programs, drug prevention, and treatment. Drug prevention programs constitute 35% of US counterdrug spending although only 1/3 of school offer anti-drug curricula (2007). Decreased demand makes the drug market less lucrative. “As long as it is demanded, the prohibition of cocaine serves merely to make production hugely lucrative, not to halt it” (Economist, 2003)
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? Government Proposals President Fox Proposal Felipe Calderón Proposal
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? Mexico's federal government has introduced several measures to eliminate non-transparent practices in its public and private sectors in order to stimulate private sector growth. Anti-corruption initiatives, activities and legislation have increased significantly since 2000.
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? Vicente Fox (2000 – 2006) o Felipe Calderón (2006- Present)
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? Mexico's anti-corruption strategy has focused on three areas: Prisons Police force Customs President Fox pursued free market policies by introducing several liberal reforms as well as a range of measures aimed at improving the Mexican business climate. President Calderon's government has devoted much attention and resources to combating organized crime related to drug trafficking.
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? Main goals: 1. Recognition of the role of Popular attitudes and culture in facilitating corruption. 2. Creation of Anti-corruption initiatives targeting culture and popular attitudes. 3. Increase the involvement of social organization on the struggle
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? Felipe Calderón is focused on providing greater public safety, fighting crime, generating investment and employment to reduce poverty, and continuing to promote greater transparency in government and access to information. Key areas needing attention in countering corruption: Political funding Government records Conflict of interest Government ethics Protection of whistleblowers
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? On the political agenda, the fight against narcotics is a special focus area. President Calderon's government has devoted much attention and resources to combating organized crime related to drug trafficking.
W HAT IS BEING DONE TO A DDRESS THIS P ROBLEM ? Corruption Perception Index Mexico YearCorruption Perceptions Index 20083.6 20073.5 20063.3 20053.5 20043.6 20033.6 20023.6 20013.7 20003.3 19993.4 19983.3 19972.66 19963.3 1988-19922.23 1980-19851.87 There are very low levels of trust in the public administration and in politicians
C ONCLUSIONS : In addition to the negative criminal and social effects accompanying drug smuggling, the cartels' enormous economic power has fueled high levels of police corruption. The police is believed to be on cartels' payroll, especially in Northern States, where cartels smuggle drugs into the US. An increasing number of public agencies and initiatives have been dealing with anti-corruption in Mexico since a change of government in 2000 Mexico collaborates with the US to combat drug smuggling. Among other sources, Global Integrity 2007 reports of drug lords being extradited to the US for prosecution
C ONCLUSIONS : Mexico has a strong anti-corruption legal framework; however, enforcement of legislation is still a problem Many of the problems are fueled by inadequate control systems in local state administrations, and some Mexican states suffer from notoriously poor governance The federal structure of the Mexican political system is thus frequently cited as contributing to the inefficiency of federal anti-corruption initiatives
C ONCLUSIONS : The degrees and types of corruption that companies encounter in Mexico vary a lot between the federal, state and municipal level. Business surveys reveal that companies still cite corruption and inefficient government bureaucracy as major obstacles for doing business in Mexico In the short run, fighting illicit drug cartels will lead to greater short term violence
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