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North Caucasus and Central Asia. NORTH CAUCASUS l.

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Presentation on theme: "North Caucasus and Central Asia. NORTH CAUCASUS l."— Presentation transcript:

1 North Caucasus and Central Asia


3 AGENDA 1. Introduction 2.Chechen conflict, timeline 3.Russian position in this conflict 4.Reasons for the desaster 5.Additionally other country profiles 6.External actors 7.Difficulties and possible solutions

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7 Timeline: Chechnya Chronics: until 1858: decades of resistance against russian conquerors 1934: Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Soviet Solialist Republic 1944: Stalins retribution for chechen colloboration with Nazi-regime: deportation 1957:Khrushev restores the Republic of the year 1934

8 Chechen war : chronics ● 1991: Declaration of independency (Dudajew), only Afghanistan recognizes the state „Ishkeria“ ● 1994 -1996: first war result: autonomy, but no independence ● 1997-1999: Maskhadow (chechen leader )could not bring the country under control ● 1999: chechen-dagestanian border: attempt to create an islamic state, terror attacs in Russia ● 1999 – 2000: second war,,661054_1,00.jpg

9 chronics officials chechen „leaders“ ● Since 2000: Moskow loyal Kadyrow years, Putin declares direct rule from Moskow ● 2003: referendum vote of the new constitution (C. as a part of RF); Kadyrov elected president ● 2004: Kadyrov killed,Alkhanov is president ● 2005: new parliament ● 2006: son of Kadyrow becomes prime minister ● 2005 Maskhadov killed ● 2006: his successor Saydullayev killed ● July 2006: warlord Basayev killed ● Dokka Umarov has to unite the different gangs (b-list)

10 Shamil Basayev Profile -born 1965 -briefly studied in Moskow land management -became later computer salesman career as a chechen fighter: -1.1995: hospital siege; Budyonovsk, southern Russia, 100 people killed -10.2002: Moskow theatre siege, 129 hostages die -8.2004:suicide bombers kill 10 people outside metro in Moskow -9.2004: gunmen seize school in Beslan, 331 died -10.2005:attac in Nalchik,Russia; scores killed consequenses of his death: power has to be structured in a new way, this might provoke new conflicts within clans which desire more control or power in Chechnya by claiming important positions for „their“ people all information and pictures: 10.7.06


12 Chechnya


14 Dagestan

15 characteristics Complex ethnitical construction structural problems „clan-society“ many beneficiaries of the conflict distabilisation from russia radicalisation of the fronts international war on terror hinders IO to express open their opinion on russian war in chechnya


17 FAU Erlangen-Nürnberg Institute for Political Science PS: Failed and Fragile States Presentation by Emma Hauer 28.062006 State Failure in Central Asia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

18 Where is Central Asia?


20 Structural Problems in the Central Asian states? 1.General economical decline after independence: discontinuation of financial subsidies from Moscow disruptive privatisation; exclusion from the rouble zone massive out-migration of Russians and other Russian-speakers  vacuum in key positions in administration and economy industrial development backward; primarily supplier of raw materials 2. Difficult process of state- and nation-building: embryonic states; never existed as modern national-states before old Soviet nomenclature still powerful  political transformation? multiethnic states (forced and voluntary immigration by dozens of other nationalities) disputes over borders and land (administrative borders do not follow ethnic and linguistic lines) weak sense of national identity

21 Developments after independence 1. Socio-economic situation: increasing unemployment and poverty of the major part of the population worsening living standards: decline of infrastructure, health and educational systems precarious situation especially for youth: higher rates of illiteracy, drug use, unemployment etc. borderland Afghanistan became a factor of instability: rapidly expanding gun and drug trade; refugees 2. Political situation: development to non-democratic, repressive and authoritarian political systems police forces much more powerful than militaries (but: corrupt, criminal) declining public support for the governments worsening of ethnic and state relations in spite of state repression and persecution of Islamic groups, spread of underground Islamist activism

22 Various Types of State How fulfil the Central Asian States the core functions of Security, Welfare, Legitimacy and Law state?

23 1) Kazakhstan -+/- - no separation of power - limited freedom of speech - repression of opponents - irregularities of elections - huge corruption - abuse of human rights (torture in prisons) + no direct threat for physical security for major part of civilians + stability of currency + increasing gross domestic product + wealthiest state - after independency general decline of intrastructure, health and educational systems - rural living standards lower - clientelism and corruption + security function in the hands of government + no major internal and external threats + seemed to be the most stable Central Asian state - in spite of strict border controls: drug traffickers - refugees from Tajikistan, uzbekistan, Afghanistan etc. Legitimacy and Law state WelfareSecurityState core functions:

24 2) Uzbekistan --+/- - highly repressive police state - no legal political opposition; persecution of regime opponents - increasing pressure on NGOs and civil society - huge abuse of human rights (torture and brutality of police forces) - worsening corruption - economic sector dominated by state and a small elite - concentrated wealth in the hands of a tiny elite - no significant private sector - increasing poverty and unemployment - children, students forced to work in cotton fields in order to fulfil state cotton quotas + not at risk of imminent collapse - aggressive and chauvinistic behaviour  could become centre of instability in Central Asia - rising social discontent - May 2005 Andijon uprising  regime presents threat to civilians Legitimacy and Law state WelfareSecurityState core functions

25 3) Kyrgyzstan +/---/+ - limited political rights - occasional repression of opponents - fraudulent elections - increasing pressure on human and civil rights + parliament more powerful + NGOs not persecuted + political parties allowed + civil society + still the most pluralistic+ and liberal Central Asian state - increasing unemployment and poverty - property redistributed to small elite - decline of educational and health systems - low attendance to schools - massive out-migration - increasing rates of HIV- infections and drug consumption - government lost control over public security - worsening of political violence - increasing social discontent  public revolt against Akaev May 2005 + regime change relatively peaceful; Akaev accepted his overthrow Legitimacy and Law stateWelfareSecurityState core functions:

26 4) Turkmenistan ---/+ - Turkmenbashi built up a personality cult - absolute control of all political and economical power - political parties prohibited - persecution of non- official religious groups - discrimination and repression of ethnic and religious minorities - huge abuse of political and human rights - serious economic problems - largely poverty and unemployment - lack of private business and foreign investments; companies controlled by Nijazov - collapse of health and educational systems - cult of personality replaced regular education  ideological indocrination of the youth - underground political struggle within the country - increasing public opposition towards regime - clan and ethnic divide  various clans competing for political and economical power - increasing presence of criminal and terrorist groups + internal conflict not broke out yet Legitimacy and Law state WelfareSecurityState core functions

27 5) Tajikistan -/+-- - political system fragile and prone to violence - president controls parliament; judiciary used against opposition - fraudulent elections - nepotism and widespread corruption + only Central Asian state with a politically relevant opposition - collapsed economy - extreme poverty; highest rate of unemployment - widening gulf between wealthy elite and major rest - one million dependent on int. food aid - destroyed infrastructure - educational and health systems collapsed - school attendance dropped sharply - internal conflict: peace agreement under threat - large territories outside governmental control - inner-ethnic conflicts - geography encourages regionalism - border to Afghanistan difficult to control  drug- trafficking, illegal guns trade, refugees and terrorists Legitmacy and Law state WelfareSecurityState core functions

28 failing state +/---/+ Kyrgyzstan failed state -/+-- Tajikistan failing state ---/+ Turkmenista n weak state --+/- Uzbekistan weak state -/++/- Kazakhstan Type of statehood Legitimacy and Law state WelfareSecurity Central Asian states

29 Characteristics & Future Prospects for the Region ● threat of Islamic fundamentalism not imminent in Central Asian states ● but: political repression of religious groups could lead to a radicalisation ● development to non-democratic and authoritarian political systems could become a major risk factor for instability ● continuation of the war in Afghanistan will lead to a worsening of the socio-economic and political situation in Central Asian states, particularly in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

30 Overview 1.Burka Band 2.Country Profile 3.State- and nationbuilding 4.Democratization 5.State-/violence 6.Socio-/oeconomic situation 7.Summary 8.Characteristics

31 Afghanistan The Burka Band

32 ........... my mother wears blue jeans now, and i am so surprised; the things are changing faster, i don´t know if it´s right......

33 Übersicht Afghanistan

34 Afghanistan Country Profile Population: 31.056.997 (July 2006 est.) Capital: Kabul Religion: 99% Muslim Literacy: 36% Life expectancy: 43.34 years Head of State/ President: Hamid KARZAI

35 Analysis state- and nationbuilding 19th century: Colonialism 1923: Monarchy 1978-1989:Afghanistan under sovjet rule 1989-2001:Afghanistan und the rule of Taliban 2001-2006:Islamic Republic of Afghanistan

36 Democratization Bonn agreement Government consists of: –Warlords/Mujaheddin –„west oriented“ politicians

37 Democratization? Attention: Is democratization possible?  Obstacles: lack of human rights and security destroyed infrastructure no economy lack of any political system  Different interests by different forces!

38 Democratization? Warlords/ Mujaheddin: Territory soverignity/independent from the government Drug/gun trafficking/ partly Taliban Politicians: realization of the interests of U.S./ U.N.  Low acceptance by the citizens

39 State-/ Violence Warlords/MujaheddinNATO/ISAF New Afghan National Army (ANA) Afghan National Police (ANP) (trained by external acotrs of force) U.S/U.N InternalExternal

40 Socio/-oeconomic situation Agricultur/ mostly Opium cultivaton: 87% of the world supply Weak economy: small-scale production of textiles, soap... Low average level of education

41 -+/-- - repression in different regions - irregularities of elections - huge corruption - abuse of human rights - direct threats for the civil population and ngo´s - weak governmental system in the regions -poor state - general lack of intrastructure, health and educational systems -low living standards -clientelism and corruption + ngo´s stabilized the medcare in some regions - security function in the hands of external and internal actors no monopoly by the government - internal and external threats - drug traffickers/gun traffickers - refugees intrastate - homing refugees from borderlands -weak borders Legitimacy and Law stateWelfareSecurity

42 ● Afghanistan is a failed state ● Was the ad hoc intervention of the U.S. a success? Are their similarities to Iraq? ● Different Interests: ● U.S./NATO: military base in middle asia ● Warlords: don´t want to share their power ● Borderlands: profits from gun/drug trafficking strengthening the power of islamic fundamentalist Characteristics

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