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Poland, Senate 28 May 2007 Skugga för blå bakgr.Skugga för röd bakgr. Skugga för grön bakgr.Skugga för grå bakgr. Robert L. Larsson Security Analyst Swedish.

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Presentation on theme: "Poland, Senate 28 May 2007 Skugga för blå bakgr.Skugga för röd bakgr. Skugga för grön bakgr.Skugga för grå bakgr. Robert L. Larsson Security Analyst Swedish."— Presentation transcript:

1 Poland, Senate 28 May 2007 Skugga för blå bakgr.Skugga för röd bakgr. Skugga för grön bakgr.Skugga för grå bakgr. Robert L. Larsson Security Analyst Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) Robert L. Larsson Security Analyst Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI) Nord Stream And the Security Political Implications for the Baltic Sea Region

2 Point of Departure What is Energy Security? Difference notion of RF and the EU Not only security of supplies… Difference notion of RF and the EU Not only security of supplies…

3 Security Political Issues Political frictions Military-political issues Intelligence aspects Militarisation Common EU policy Integration Trust and confidence Transparency Rationale and legitimacy Political frictions Military-political issues Intelligence aspects Militarisation Common EU policy Integration Trust and confidence Transparency Rationale and legitimacy

4 Point of Departure Russia’s energy policy must be understood in the light of its overall development. Foreign policy View on security Market management Russia’s energy policy must be understood in the light of its overall development. Foreign policy View on security Market management

5 Skugga för blå bakgr.Skugga för röd bakgr. Skugga för grön bakgr.Skugga för grå bakgr. RF securitises energy issues. This legitimises the use of extraordinary and coercive means to tackle perceived problems… RF securitises energy issues. This legitimises the use of extraordinary and coercive means to tackle perceived problems… Coercive Energy Policy

6 Claimed Legitimacy Not a Russo-German project but instead… …a common European project that… …connects Russia and Europe and… …serves integration and interdependence Not a Russo-German project but instead… …a common European project that… …connects Russia and Europe and… …serves integration and interdependence

7 Russia’s Energy Perceptions Russia’s energy strategy -> urge to control Aims to be strong and independent Energy will create growth and extend influence One sided dependence is sougth after RF will use its energy policy as a security tool but aims to be reliable… Russia’s energy strategy -> urge to control Aims to be strong and independent Energy will create growth and extend influence One sided dependence is sougth after RF will use its energy policy as a security tool but aims to be reliable…

8 Dividing – not connecting EU NO NO? Yes Yes?

9 No Common EU Energy Policy? NS is evidence of bilateralism prevailing over common priorities More difficult to form a common EU energy strategy Undermining the foundation of the EU NS is evidence of bilateralism prevailing over common priorities More difficult to form a common EU energy strategy Undermining the foundation of the EU

10 Sweden’s stand No official policy line of the government Spokesmen from all political parties have indicated that they see problems The majority of the public is against it: 51% against 24% for 25% N/A No official policy line of the government Spokesmen from all political parties have indicated that they see problems The majority of the public is against it: 51% against 24% for 25% N/A Source: Synovate TEMO

11 Non-alternative Routes Forgotten alternatives?

12 Service Riser Locations

13 Responsibility for Protection Swedish responsibility since it is in the Swedish EEZ Staffed by Russian citizens? Russian rethoric on protection of its citizens is worrying. Potential source of friction if a threat against the riser emerges Swedish responsibility since it is in the Swedish EEZ Staffed by Russian citizens? Russian rethoric on protection of its citizens is worrying. Potential source of friction if a threat against the riser emerges

14 Militarisation of the Baltic Sea Anti-terrorism could be used for cooperation, but can also be a source of friction. Putin has promised that the pipeline will be protected by the Russian navy Securing supplies by military means can cause a re- militarisation of the Baltic Sea No legal problem with increased military activities Nord Stream gives Russia a reason to show flag Increased tension could be experienced Anti-terrorism could be used for cooperation, but can also be a source of friction. Putin has promised that the pipeline will be protected by the Russian navy Securing supplies by military means can cause a re- militarisation of the Baltic Sea No legal problem with increased military activities Nord Stream gives Russia a reason to show flag Increased tension could be experienced

15 Lack of confidence in the project Official and underlying aspects

16 Shareholders Committee Managing Director Role: board of directors functions SUPERVISORY LEVEL MANAGEMENT LEVEL Technical DirectorsCommercial DirectorFinancial Director 24,5%51,0 %24,5% Nord Stream AG Responsibility and Structure Will there be any usage of subcontractors?

17 Startegic Energy Policy Russia’s energy strategy is not decided by the market or by foreigners

18 Increased Russian Leverage Leverage on transit states Leverage on connected states

19 Leverage on Importers Several possible levers: Control of infrastructure Control of companies Usage/creation of debts Coercive price policy “Marketisation” Overt/covert threats Supply interruptions

20 What are the threats to supplies?

21 Mother Nature is the greatest threat! Reliability can be seen in terms of: Volumes? Incidents? Cut-offs? Politics? Politics may cause greater problems than mother nature and therefore it is essential to look at Russia’s reliability.

22 Skugga för blå bakgr.Skugga för röd bakgr. Skugga för grön bakgr.Skugga för grå bakgr. Robert L. Larsson, FOI 2006 Coercive Energy Policy

23 Skugga för blå bakgr.Skugga för röd bakgr. Skugga för grön bakgr.Skugga för grå bakgr. Robert L. Larsson, FOI 2006 Coercive Energy Policy

24 Robert L. Larsson, FOI 2006 Coercive Energy Policy

25 Explicit Political Underpinning ”Russia may agree to lower natural gas prices for Ukraine if the country scales down its pro-Western foreign policy” Viktor Chernomyrdin Kiev 30 May 2006 ”Russia may agree to lower natural gas prices for Ukraine if the country scales down its pro-Western foreign policy” Viktor Chernomyrdin Kiev 30 May 2006

26 Russia is dependent on access to markets Russia is dependent on Western money Russia would never do anything against NATO or the EU Russia needs to be reliable – otherwise it gets badwill Russia is dependent on access to markets Russia is dependent on Western money Russia would never do anything against NATO or the EU Russia needs to be reliable – otherwise it gets badwill Is there a true interdependence? Are These Barriers High Enough to prevent cut-offs or coercive policy?

27 Are the Barriers High Enough? BarrierShort-duration cut-offsLong-duration cut-offs Wish to be reliableHigh barrier Prepardness to infringe on its reputation and reliability Low barrierHigh barrier Political barriers/democracyLow barrier Risk of losing moneyLow barrierHigh barrier Need for revenuesLow barrierHigh barrier Risk for badwillLow barrier Dependence on EuropeLow barrierHigh barrier Prepardness to endure negative consequences Low barrier EU/NATO-membership as protection Low barrier IN TOTAL:Low barriersHigh barriers Robert L. Larsson, FOI 2006

28 International Law If security political implications are evident… Why is only HELCOM and the Esboo convention the only legal frameworks utilised? Why not UN charter etc? If security political implications are evident… Why is only HELCOM and the Esboo convention the only legal frameworks utilised? Why not UN charter etc?

29 Looking East, Heading West? European criticism makes Russia look eastward where more “greateful” importers are. Will this lead to European appeasement? European criticism makes Russia look eastward where more “greateful” importers are. Will this lead to European appeasement?

30 Unknown future We have no idea who will be in charge, his agenda and Russia’s situation – not in even the near future... During 50 years, the life-span of Nord Stream, Russia will be led by 7-13 presidents…

31 Thank you for your attention! Robert Larsson FOI Stockholm Phone: +46 (0) See further: NEW! Nord Stream, Sweden and Baltic Sea Security (Larsson). Russia’s Energy Policy: Security Dimensions of Russia’s Reliability as an Energy Supplier (Larsson) N.B. Views and conclusions do not necessarely reflect those of the Swedish government or FOI. Disclaimers and details of the statistics will be published in a forthcoming report by FOI. Figures should not be taken at face value. Refer to the reports above for full analysis.


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