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1 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Fragile States Report PARIS21 Steering committee Pali Lehohla Co Chair PARIS21 Statistician General South Africa.

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Presentation on theme: "1 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Fragile States Report PARIS21 Steering committee Pali Lehohla Co Chair PARIS21 Statistician General South Africa."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Fragile States Report PARIS21 Steering committee Pali Lehohla Co Chair PARIS21 Statistician General South Africa 05-06-2009

2 2 Preferred supplier of quality statistics This presentation covers What is a state Crisis, failed and fragile state Indicators of vulnerability Types of Interventions Country experiences State legitimacy Country profiles and what can we learn Overview

3 3 Preferred supplier of quality statistics State is a political entity is recognised by other states as the highest political authority in a given territory and is treated as an equal among the (international) community of states. No need for diplomatic recognition by other states, only a recognition that a state exists. Thomas Hobbes, a 17th century political philosopher defined a state using the concept of a social contract, that is, which focuses on the relationship between the state and citizen. Niccolò Machiavelli, and Max Weber focused on physical force as the foundational element of a state. State: what is a state?

4 4 Preferred supplier of quality statistics A crisis state is a state under acute stress, where reigning institutions face serious contestation and are potentially unable to manage conflict and shocks. A failed state is a state whose central government is so weak or ineffective that it has little practical control over much of its territory, leading to collapse of the state. A fragile states is a state that is failing, or at risk of failing, with respect to a uthority, comprehensive service entitlements and legitimacy. A post-conflict state is a state which has emerged out of conflict and is progressively establishing institutions and making resources available to sustain itself completely out of crisis and fragility. Crisis, failed and fragile, post-conflict state

5 5 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Political Indicators Criminalization and/or delegitimisation of the state Progressive deterioration of public service Widespread violation of human rights Security apparatus as ‘state within a state’ Rise of factionalised elites Intervention of other states or external factors Social Indicators Demographic pressures Massive movement of refugees and internally displaced peoples Legacy of vengeance-seeking group grievance Chronic and sustained human flight Economic Indicators Uneven economic development along group lines Sharp and/or severe economic decline Indicators of state vulnerability

6 6 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Conflict situation: risk mitigating Diagnostics Therapeutic Restoration Post-conflict or non-conflict situation: risk management Diagnostic Preventative Conflict vs Non-conflict situation

7 7 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Sudan and conflict Sudan on war for last 50 years (1955-2005) CPA signed in 2005 CPA conceived as roadmap to the future of the country CPA calls for equity, equality, Justus, fare distribution of power and wealth and sustainable development Census is the basic tool for achieving the said goals

8 8 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Sudanese Census Census stated in CPA (constitution article # 215 A Census to be conducted by the end of 2 nd year of interim period}. Census should be monitored by an independent body MOC idea was materialized Upper House named the Chair of MOC

9 9 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Afghanistan … DATA are needed in every stage of strategy preparation, program/project implementation, monitoring, and evaluation CSO Mandated to collect, analyze, and disseminate timely and accurate data Has a crucial role in the ANDS process However, CSO, along with other institutions in the country, was destroyed during the war (physical and statistical infrastructures)

10 10 Preferred supplier of quality statistics ROLE of STATISTICS (contn)… While physical infrastructure may be replaced, statistical infrastructure including improving technical capacity to undertake data collection activity is the most challenging job not only for CSO in Afghanistan but for every statistical system in any post conflict situation. It requires some very difficult but important cultural changes, which often involve politics

11 11 Preferred supplier of quality statistics CHALLENGES AHEAD of CSO … There were only few data collection activities that were undertaken by CSO in the past Hence, CSO was not able to develop its capacity Although there were some assistance received from donors, e.g. UNFPA for the conduct of the census, UNICEF for the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey and training for the staff, ADB for statistical training, and other donors, building the capacity of the staff will not happen overnight.

12 12 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Conflicts in Rwanda 1959-1994 (in brief) In 1959: Massacres and Refuges, most of them in neighbouring countries (1st round) In 1973: Massacres and 2 nd round of refuges 1990-1994: Conflicts leading to the genocide in 1994

13 13 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Post-genocide 800,000 to 1 million people killed About 2 million refuges in the camps of neighbouring countries, who returned massively in Rwanda in1996-1997 About 1 million people became ‘internally displaced’ in their own country

14 14 Preferred supplier of quality statistics About 1 million of former exiled persons returned to Rwanda, for most of them, it was after many decades of being in exile. Deep demographic changes resulting directly from genocide will necessary have a serious impact on all the country’s social and economic components. Aggravation of the already endemic poverty for a mostly rural population

15 15 Preferred supplier of quality statistics New categories of population, notably with important proportion of HH headed by children and/or women. When the country restored peace and order late in 1994, the government has set ambitious plans with the purpose of rectifying and healing the damages caused by the conflicts leading to the genocide. There was urgent need of a lot of statistical information to show progressive orientations of trends.

16 16 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Cambodia  1948 to 1953, Department of Cambodia was established as a central statistics office.  1953, Department of Statistics and Economic Study.  1963 to 1975, National Institute of Statistics and Economic Research under the Ministry of Planning.  1975 to 1979, statistical system was completely destroyed by the Khmer Rouge regime.  Since 1979, Department of Statistics was re-established under the Ministry of Finance and it was assigned to the Ministry of Planning in 1981.  1994 to present, it was upgraded to the National Institute of Statistics (NIS) under Ministry of Planning.

17 17 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Impact of war and civil disaster on statistical system  1975 to 1979, statistics work came to a complete stop.  All of the statistics documents, records were destroyed together with publications, books.  The city was evacuated; everybody was working as farmers in the rural areas.  No one statistician remained, the qualified statisticians and statistical cadres have either died or left the country.  After the Khmer Rouge Regime, the Department of Statistics restarted with 21 young staff in 1979. We need to rebuild everything from scratch.

18 18 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Rebuild the Cambodian statistical system  From 1992, the quality and coverage of economic and socio-demographic statistics have gradually improved.  A number of donor led data collection and compilationactivities.  ADB provided technical assistance to rehabilitate thestatistical system of Cambodia from 1992 to 2003, including national accounts, CPI, training, Socio-Economic Surveys 1993/1994 and 1996, Establishment Surveys 1993, 1995 and 2000.  ADB and IMF provided extensive support on capacity building and data collections for macro economic and industrial statistics.  UNDP, SIDA and WB have funded Socio-Economic Survey 2003/2004.  JICA assisted establishment listing in Phnom Penh and then expands to major provinces. We are going to conduct a Census of Establishments in 2011 which was primary supported by JICA.

19 19 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Colonisation of the area Arrival of Dutch settlers arrived in 1652 The early settlers came Netherlands, Germany, included French Huguenots Over a period of 150 years they became Afrikaners speaking Afrikaans 1820 British settlers arrival Slaves from Bengal, South India, Ceylon (Sri Lanka), Madagascar Indonesian archipelago and the East African coast Last war of Black resistance: Bambata war of 1905/06 Rivalry between European powers 1910 South Africa becomes a single state within the sphere of British hegemony Colonialism of a special type 1948 apartheid finally installed Black poiltical formations banned Racial-ethnic separate development South Africa: origins of conflict

20 20 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Social dynamics within South Africa Trade Unions Black Consciousness Soweto uprising United Democratic Front International developments, including in Southern Africa Economic sanction Eminent Persons Group Collapse of the cordon sanitaire in Southern Africa Demise of the Cold War Leadership Public coded messages Conditions for negotiations South Africa: state of crisis

21 21 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Negotiated settlement Lots of horse trading African National Congress (ANC) emerges as leader of revolution South Africa 1994: Arrival of democracy

22 22 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Ensuring order and security in society in the face of all sorts of threats (Indonesia during the early years of Suharto) Defending the integrity of the nation (Nigeria under Olusegan Obasanjo) Promoting a particular ethnic agenda (Kenya under Daniel Arap Moi, South Africa under apartheid) Promoting nationalism (Tanzania under Julius Nyerere) Defending or challenging (often invented) tradition (DRC under Mobutu) Promoting reforms that increase participation (as in Bolivia under Evo Morales) or perhaps decrease it (Chile under Augusto Pinochet) Promoting reconciliation (South Africa under Nelson Mandela, Rwanda under Paul Kagame) Creating legitimacy of the state

23 23 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Country profiles CountryCensusPost conflict Sample Survey Programme Inconflict StatsNSS AfghanistanNone, last one in the 70s None AngolaNone since 1970None Cambodia1998None Early stages Rwanda2002Focus on relevant post-conflict survey None SomaliaNone, last one in the 70s None South Africa1996, 2001None Unstructured Sudan2008Not yet in placeNone

24 24 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Country profiles CountryPolitical Leadership with focus on statistics NSO LeadershipSystemsResources AfghanistanEmergentPolitically astuteNeed serious focusNeeds resources AngolaSupportive of statistical development Present, internally focused, needs support Need serious focusResource-rich CambodiaNeeds further development Present, internally focused, needs support Still have to be institutionalised Getting support from international agencies RwandaSupportive of statistical development Some instability at the top Still have to be institutionalised Getting support from international agencies SomaliaNoneNeeds to be further developed and instutionalised Not in placeVery inadequate South AfricaSupportive of statistical development Strong external focusSystems in placeSelf-funded SudanRecognition of the NSO Leadership needs to focus on statistical programmes Still have to be institutionalised Getting support from international agencies

25 25 Preferred supplier of quality statistics Thank you


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