We think you have liked this presentation. If you wish to download it, please recommend it to your friends in any social system. Share buttons are a little bit lower. Thank you!
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byAna Idler
Modified about 1 year ago
Traci L. Bender Nebraska Public Power District APPA Business & Financial Conference September 15, 2009 Risk Analysis
“Risk is good, if you do not properly manage it though, you take a dangerous leap.” Evel Knievel 2 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
Nebraska Public Power District Political subdivision of the State Operates an integrated electric utility system, including facilities for generation, transmission, and distribution Serves all or part of 91 of 93 Counties in State Sells to 77 Wholesale Municipalities and Rural Public Power Districts and distributes to 80 Retail Municipalities In total, approximately 380,000 End-Use Customers 3 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
Nebraska Public Power District Owns and maintains 14 generating plants with combined capacity of 2,913 MWs Owns and operates 5,000 miles of Transmission & Sub-transmission line and related substation facilities Operates distribution systems for 87 Municipalities primarily through Lease and Operations & Maintenance Agreements 4 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
Risk Analysis – How Has It Changed? Traditional Business Risk Management – Event-driven – Focus within individual business units – Specific risk issues addressed individually Enterprise-Wide Risk Management (EWRM) – Portfolio approach – very broad – Focus corporate-wide – integrated – Optimize use of resources to manage risks 5 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
NPPD’s Risk Management Process Manage Assess Identify 6 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
EWRM – NPPD Approach Roles & Responsibilities Resource Planning & Risk Management –Facilitate the process Risk Working Group (RWG) –Assist with developing and implementing risk management processes and procedures Structured approach –Cascade risk awareness Getting all employees engaged –Training and education of employees Developing a risk-aware culture 7 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
EWRM – NPPD Approach Roles & Responsibilities Risk Oversight Committee (ROC) –Responsible for high-level risk management oversight and program support Business Units –Proactive and forward looking in risk identification, assessment, and management Have the third eye perspective –Integrate risk management into existing processes 8 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
NPPD Experiences with Risk Quantification Utilized Qualitative Scales with Definitions that aligned with 1 (Low) through 10 (High) Ratings to assess Probability & Impact of various risks – Used for Enterprise-Wide Risk Analysis Developed “Top 20” risk profile with action plans and risk owners – Used for Project Risk Analysis Integrated Risk Analysis into major Strategic Initiatives – Cooper Nuclear Station Options Study – 2008 Integrated Resource Plan – Other 9 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
Cooper Nuclear Station (CNS) Options Study - Risk Analysis Quantitatively analyze future possible operating scenarios for our Cooper Nuclear Station Utilized consultants from Strategic Decisions Group (SDG), an industry recognized expert in analytical decision methodologies Utilized Stochastic modeling, which includes assigning a probability distribution for selected key inputs and provides a probability distribution for your outputs – Inputs – values assigned for all major uncertainties at the 10 th, 50 th, and 90 th percentile points 10 th percentile one in ten the value will be lower 90 th percentile one in ten the value will be higher 10 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
CNS Options Study – Risk Analysis The bar charts on the following page identify an Expected Value (EV) for each of the future operating scenarios – The EV is the probability-weighted average outcome of each option, given the many combinations where each data input is taken at the 10 th, 50 th, and 90 th percentile points The width of the bar illustrates the “range of uncertainty” or risk associated with Operating Scenario – A narrower or smaller bar width around the Expected Value indicates less risk or a more certain outcome when comparing to other scenarios 11 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
Present Value of Wholesale Revenue Requirements over 10 Years ($ Millions) Base Case Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 Case 6 Case 7 Rate Track (3321) %ile Expected Value 90%ile Summary of Project Findings 12 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
Understanding Risk Tornado Diagrams were then used to understand what was contributing to the uncertainty or risk associated with the various operating scenarios – Additional cases were added with strategies to reduce the risk 13 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
Base Case Risk Profile PV of Wholesale Revenue Requirements Risk Profile Comparisons: Base Case 10%-ile 90%-ile CNS Staffing CNS Contractor / Consultant Budget Market Price CNS Refueling Outage CNS Forced / Extended Outage RFP Sales Price CNS Addition / Improvement Capital CNS Renewal / Replacement Capital Expansion Units Cost Scenario Cost of Debt for CNS Capital Projects 10%-ile 90%-ile Supplemental Project Analysis and Information 14 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
Are We Satisfied With Our Program? No! How can we improve? – Engaged ownership of the process (champion) – Maintain focus on top risks Periodic updates to ensure validity –Quantify the value added for risk mitigation efforts Present a business case for the process –Incorporation of risk management and analysis into corporate goals, strategic plan, business unit planning and performance indicators Drive home the message that risk analysis will be a part of our every day business 15 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
Closing Risk analysis has become a critical tool at NPPD Risk Analysis does not replace management judgment, but can assist greatly in thoroughly evaluating various courses of action and increasing the probability of successful outcomes. 16 Copyright © 2009 Nebraska Public Power District. All rights reserved.
Project Management Dr. Anbang Qi Prof. of International Business School of Nankai University.
MFG Assessment Application: Assessment Criteria and Metrics 1 Performance assessment criteria and metrics may be used as the basis for determining the.
Denison Culture Survey Results Debrief and Action Planning Prepared by: Insert Your Name Here Insert Unit Name and/or Logo here.
Dr. John Dzimba Best Practices in Training and Development.
Final Report – November 3, 2003 Organization of American States Management Study of the Operations of the General Secretariat Part I – Executive Summary.
Eco-efficiency tool box Learning unit C: implementing eco-efficiency DEDICATED TO MAKING A DIFFERENCE.
Intelligent Risk Management & Compliance Cost Reduction Creating a sustainable risk and compliance organization while reducing inefficiency and improving.
1 Implementation of Application Portfolio Management Overview July 2006.
California Energy Commission - Public Interest Energy Research Program Page 0 Transmission Research Program Strategic Benefits Quantification for Transmission.
Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals.
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT BEST PRACTICES AND ASSESSMENT Kenneth Crow DRM Associates.
Dr. Chen, Electronic Commerce Pearson/Prentice Hall & Dr. Chen, Electronic Commerce Chapter 14 E-Commerce Strategy and Global EC.
Learning Objectives 6.1 Explain the importance of mission, vision, and value statement and how they set the foundation for the planning process. 6.2 Describe.
1 Chapter 13 Information Technology Economics. 2 Learning Objectives Identify the major aspects of the economics of information technology. Explain the.
A Knowledge Innovation TM Project Proposal for Egypts Negotiating Body Making Negotiation a National Duty 26 June 2005, RITSEC.
An Introduction to Life Cycle Engineering & Costing for Innovative Infrastructure ISIS Educational Module 7: Produced by ISIS Canada.
Performance Management should include activities that ensure that goals are consistently being met in an efficient and effective manner, making best use.
Module 2: National IEA process design and organization.
Federal Acquisition Service U.S. General Services Administration The Federal Strategic Sourcing Initiative (FSSI) Understanding the Elements of Total Cost.
Developing and Using Institutional Plans. Christopher D. Lambert Associate Director of Commission Relations ACCSCT.
Competency Approach to Human Resource Management.
Supply Chain Management Workshop Buenos Aires, 13 de Agosto de 2004.
A Knowledge InnovationTM Project Proposal for (The Producing Village) June Egypt.
©2009 Profiles International, Inc. All rights reserved. Expert Insights Seven Factors for Building Extreme Customer Loyalty.
Glance at Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP). In today's fiercely competitive business environment, there has to be much greater interaction between the.
Learning Objectives 11.1 Describe the advantages and disadvantages of the most common forms of business ownership Identify the stakeholders of a.
Carnegie Mellon University CMUWorks - Staff Council Update March 15, 2012.
Final Report Briefing Working Group 1A Public Safety Consolidation Effective Practices and Recommendations October 7, 2010.
Role of IP in competitive Intelligence gathering and analysis By Dr Shantanu De Ranbaxy Disclaimer: The views & comments expressed in this presentation.
Chapter 8 Outsourcing and risk management. Program Outsourcing as a business concept Definitions and concepts Rationales for outsourcing The outsourcing.
© 2016 SlidePlayer.com Inc. All rights reserved.