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© 1995-2008 D.L. Smith David L. Smith Economist, Futurist, Market Strategist FINDING CERTAINTY IN UNCERTAIN TIMES.

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Presentation on theme: "© 1995-2008 D.L. Smith David L. Smith Economist, Futurist, Market Strategist FINDING CERTAINTY IN UNCERTAIN TIMES."— Presentation transcript:

1 © 1995-2008 D.L. Smith David L. Smith Economist, Futurist, Market Strategist FINDING CERTAINTY IN UNCERTAIN TIMES

2 © 1995-2008 D.L. Smith MEGACYCLES Transformations of The Human Enterprise

3 © 1995-2008 D.L. Smith MEGACYCLES Transformations of The Human Enterprise TECHNOLOGYENERGY

4 © 1995-2008 D.L. Smith 17801800‘20‘40‘60‘801900‘20‘40‘60‘802000 Indust. Revolution Agricultural Age Petro-Indust. Rev. Electronic Rev. MEGACYCLES

5 © 1995-2008 D.L. Smith17801800‘20‘40‘60‘801900‘20‘40‘60‘802000 Indust. Revolution Agricultural Age Petro-Indust. Rev. Electronic Rev. Oil Shocks Phase I GrowthEuphoria Soaring stocks Phase III Mature Growth Prosperity Rising stocks Phase II Stocks Crash DepressionTurmoil Phase I GrowthEuphoria Soaring stocks 8000160002000 4000 1000 500 200 100 40 20 20 10 5 THE U.S. STOCK MARKET 1789 TO PRESENT Phase II Stocks Crash DepressionTurmoil Phase III Mature Growth Prosperity Rising stocks Phase I GrowthEuphoria Soaring stocks Phase II Stocks Crash DepressionTurmoil

6 © 1995-2008 D.L. Smith ‘ CRISIS ’ DANGER AND OPPORTUNITY YOU CANNOT SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY IF YOU DO NOT SEE THE DANGER

7 © 2008 D.L. Smith U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK HOMEWORK: Connect the dots: United States’ prosperity and survival as a superpower depend on imported capital and oil Ambitious Asians own the bulk of the world’s liquid capital Often-hostile Muslims own the bulk of world oil reserves Asia and Islam aspire to world domination Therefore... (take your time; finish the sentence)

8 © 2008 D.L. Smith DAVID L. SMITH DAVID L. SMITH Economist, Futurist Cyclical Economic/Market Forecasts Avoid surprises, prevent losses, capture profits DavidLSmith@iname.com (650) 752-4127 Objective: Successful corporate adaptation MISSION: To offer the most valuable information you can use,and the most expensive advice to ignore SUMMING UP

9 © 2008 D.L. Smith Questions? DavidLSmith@iname.com 650-752-4127 www.cassandra-chronicles.com http://cassandra-chronicles.blogspot.com www.cyclical-investing.com www.smithspeaker.com


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