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AISGW 2009 Heads Conference The New Leadership Landscape: External and Internal Challenges for Today’s School Heads Harbourtowne Resort & Conference Center.

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Presentation on theme: "AISGW 2009 Heads Conference The New Leadership Landscape: External and Internal Challenges for Today’s School Heads Harbourtowne Resort & Conference Center."— Presentation transcript:

1 AISGW 2009 Heads Conference The New Leadership Landscape: External and Internal Challenges for Today’s School Heads Harbourtowne Resort & Conference Center St. Michaels, MD October 22-23, 2009

2 The New Leadership Landscape Thomas Toch Executive Director, Association of Independent Schools of Greater Washington

3 National Trends

4 U.S. school-age population expected to grow 39 percent by 2050, to 102 million Immigration driving growth; children born to immigrants after 2005 will account for a third of school-age population in 2050 Absent immigration, school-age population would be 8 million lower in 2050 than today Growth most pronounced among Latinos, rising from 20 percent of school-age population today, to 35 percent in 2050 Demographics

5 Representation in school-age population of Non-Hispanic whites to fall from 59 percent today to 40 percent in 2050 Another key demographic driver: doubling of percentage of jobs requiring education beyond high school, from 30 percent in 1975 to 63 percent by 2018 As a result, a much larger segment of the education industry will be doing same work that independent schools do Demographics

6 State departments of education are launching state-funded virtual schools serving students within and beyond their borders, key part of trend towards on-line learning Florida Virtual School, launched in 1997, teaches 90 courses, including 10 APs, to 85,000 high school students Performance-based funding model: State pays FLVS after student completes course It’s “supplemental” education: most students attend brick- and-mortar schools and take on-line courses in addition to traditional classes “Disruptive Innovation”

7 The 2008 book Disrupting Class predicts the rapid rise of technology-based teaching, a “disruptive innovation” Using technology to customize learning to address the different ways that students learn—Howard Gardner’s multiple intelligences Christiansen’s prediction: 25 percent of high schools courses taught on-line by 2014; over 50 percent by 2019 Higher education: Stanford’s entire curriculum has been available via Podcast since Within minutes of a professor completing a lecture, Stanford posts it on-line. “Disruptive Innovation”

8 The desire to infuse technology into teaching is, of course, partly a function of education’s affliction with Baumol’s cost disease The phenomenon described by economist William Baumol, whereby salaries rise despite an absence of productivity increases to pay for them Teachers still take about the same amount of time to grade a five-page paper as they did a hundred years ago Education’s Productivity Problem

9 At the institutional level, schools have become less productive. It now takes more teacher-hours to educate a student for a year, because of increasing numbers of specialists on school faculties and the expansion of the curriculum and extracurriculars The ratio of adults to students has dropped from 9.5-to-1 to 9- to-1 over the past decade, according to NAIS figures Education’s Productivity Problem

10 That’s the single largest reason why, since 1985, the average cost of an independent school education has increased 150 percent beyond the rate of inflation Inflation-adjusted family income has increased 20 percent during the same period Only about 5 percent of families (incomes above $150,000) can afford a single tuition at our most expensive schools without financial aid Can independent education survive this trend? Should we change the model? Can we change the model? Education’s Productivity Problem

11 There’s an expanding movement, funded by major foundations like Gates, Carnegie Corporation of New York, and Lumina, and supported by the Bush and now the Obama administrations, to redefine the concept of quality in higher education and introduce a value proposition Moving from metrics like wealth, fame and exclusivity, the things measured by US News and other commercial rankings, to measurements of the quality of teaching and learning The movement doesn’t like existing rankings, but only because they rank the wrong things, inputs instead of outputs Redefining Quality in Higher Education

12 The accountability movement in public elementary and secondary education has, of course, also sought to rate schools on the basis of how much their students learn, taking snap-shots of student performance using mostly multiple- choice tests of low-level skills—a strategy that culminated in the No Child Left Behind Act, which has been widely discredited as unfair to schools (NAEP math results released last week found that achievement grew faster before NCLB) Redefining Quality in Higher Education

13 But a number of new, richer, more credible assessments are being developed for use in higher education that measure growth in student learning over the course of their undergraduate careers – Collegiate Learning Assessment, a non-subject-specific measure of critical thinking, problem solving, and analytic reasoning Developed with foundation funding by respected university researchers So the higher ed rankings movement is beginning to morph into something different and more sophisticated Redefining Quality in Higher Education

14 The forthcoming reauthorization of NCLB is likely to push the elementary and secondary accountability movement in the same direction, though how far is inclear Obama administration is pushing for abandonment of snap- shot measures of school performance and replacement with “value-added” metrics and has made the development of the data systems needed to do value-added calculations a priority of its $5 billion Race to the Top stimulus package And it is the administration’s four policy priorities: 1. Adopt internationally benchmarked standards and assessments that prepare students for success in college and the workplace 2. Recruit, develop, retain, and reward effective teachers and principals 3. Turn around low-performing schools 4. Build data systems that measure student success and inform teachers and principals how they can improve their practices And the building of the data systems necessary to doing value-added calculations is a priority under the administration’s $5 billion Race to the Top New data systems that measure The Build data systems that measure student success and inform teachers and principals how they can improve their practices NCLB Reauthorization

15 The administration is also stressing the creation of internationally benchmarked standards and assessments and has set aside $350 million to create such assessments Meanwhile, a wide range of richer, performance-based student assessments are already in the pipeline, including the Stanford-developed College and Work Readiness Assessment and the forthcoming Ohio Performance Assessment System So, the accountability movement is not going away. Rather, it has begun to evolve in ways that are more sympathetic to the teaching and testing that take place in independent schools NCLB Reauthorization

16 Regional Trends

17 Between 2000 and 2007, nearly 100,000 people migrated out of the Washington metro area But 253,000 foreign nationals arrived and now make up 21 percent of the region’s population (30 percent in Montgomery Co, and half the county’s population speaks English less than “very well”) Northern Virginia’s school-age population to be a third higher by Latinos are expected to grow from 17 to 20 percent of school-age population; whites expected to drop from 59 to 53 percent Demographics

18 Student population in the Maryland suburbs expected to rise 12 percent by 2030, but high school enrollment is expected to drop 5 percent over the next five years District of Columbia student population expected to decline 14 percent by 2030 Increasingly, the region’s students will be more diverse, less facile with English, and from less-affluent families Demographics

19 Continue to expand in the District of Columbia In , nearly 60 schools educating 28,000 students Compared to 44,000 students in traditional DCPS schools One of largest concentrations of charter schools in the country: a combination of bad public schools and substantial funding No charters in Montgomery Country or Northern Virginia Trend: strongest charter networks trying to expand into K-12 systems Charter Schools


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