Presentation on theme: "Are There Urbanization Economies in a Post-Socialist City? Evidence from Ukrainian Firm-Level Data Volodymyr Vakhitov Saint Petersburg October 11, 2012."— Presentation transcript:
Are There Urbanization Economies in a Post-Socialist City? Evidence from Ukrainian Firm-Level Data Volodymyr Vakhitov Saint Petersburg October 11, 2012
2 Outline Motivation Data description Model and Estimation Issues Preliminary results
3 Agglomeration in the Nutshell ? Common labor pool? Relationships between managers and/or owners? Common market?
4 Motivation: Objective Agglomeration economies: External (to the firm) economies of scale Localization: Internal to the industry Internal to the location Urbanization: External to the industry Internal to the location
5 Motivation: Urbanization Economies Urbanization economies: external to the firm and the industry as a whole, internal to the location Jacobs (1969): spillovers matter! Innovations Knowledge sharing Borrowing and developing new product [Schumpeterian] churning
6 Motivation: Important Issues How to measure ( Research Policy, 2009 )? Size (employment, # of plants) Diversity (similarity and concentration indices) Are measures comparable (robustness)? Cluster boundaries (aggregation): What is “the same location”? What is “the same industry”?
7 Motivation: Post-Socialist City Land “price” and previous allocation “Lock-in effect” within city boundaries Ownership issues Outdated capital stock
8 Outline Motivation Data description Model and Estimation Issues Preliminary results
9 Data Description Registry: “Official” data (National Statistics Office) Panel (2001-2007), submitted by firms Firm level (plant level on the way) Excludes budgetary sector and banks
10 Data Description Ownership: “Official” data (State Property Fund and FDI statements) Panel (2001-2005), collected by SPF Firm level only
12 Data Description: Raw Variables Territory and industry codes Output, employment, capital, materials Ownership (private: domestic / foreign) Output assortment Innovation activity FDI Purchases from other sectors Exports and imports
13 Data Description: Constructed Variables Size: Other employment in the city ln(empl) = ln(# firm) + ln(empl/# firms) (Henderson, 2003) Diversity: Market: employment or firm count based HHI Internal: output composition HHI Share of imports in the inputs Use of products from other sectors produced in the same city (!!!)
14 Outline Motivation Data description Model and Estimation Issues Preliminary results
15 Model TFP Model (Rosenthal and Strange, 2004): Econometric Specification (Henderson, 2003):
16 Estimation issues One-stage and two-stage estimation Restricted to manufacturing in cities Area and industry-year fixed effects Robust estimation 2-stage: TFP by Olley-Pakes, then regress on agglomeration variables + controls
17 Outline Motivation Data description Model and Estimation Issues Preliminary results
18 Production Function Results Size-based ln (Employment)0.479*** ln(Capital)0.058*** ln(Materials)0.461*** … … Observations151,775 Number of clusters41898 R-squared overall0.85
26 Innovations and ownership Ownership+ Innovations ln(Urban employment) ln(Urban # of firms)0.363***0.388*** 0.0640.077 Employment - based HHI Firm-based HHI-0.166***-0.165*** 0.038 ln(Number of innovating firms)-0.01 0.008 ln( innovation expenditures)0.007* 0.004 Majority private, domestic0.285*** 0.035 Majority private, foreign0.593*** 0.059
27 Conclusions and implications Urbanization economies seem to be present More pronounced for firm counts based measures, than labor based Urban capital depreciation matters Ownership effect: foreign – private domestic – state.
28 Innovations seem important, but total stock would be a better measure Past values of innovation expenditures insignificant Ownership is clearly important, but cross- effects and lags may better show channels Estimates may vary by sub-industries Past capital stock (lock-in effect)? Conclusions and implications
29 Volodymyr Vakhitov Kyiv School of Economics : firstname.lastname@example.org