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© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should.

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Presentation on theme: "© 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should."— Presentation transcript:

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2 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to Redistricting And The 2012 Election Bernadette Budde Senior Vice President, Political Analysis Michael Davis Vice President, Political Programs July 13, 2011

3 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. BAB’S PRINCIPLES It never turns out exactly as the party operatives think Ten years is a very long time (3 presidential elections) This version feels less partisan than ‘70/’80/’90/2000 Incumbents serve in current districts (decide on your grassroots strategy) Incumbents run in new districts (decide on your PAC strategy) Demographic reality outweighs lines None of this makes the issues go away

4 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. BAB’S TERMINOLOGY Merged pairs Two incumbents running against each other In primary: example, LA-3 Boustany (R) and Landry (R) – eliminates one seat for the party regardless of primary winner In general: example, IA-3 Boswell (D) and Latham (R) – eliminates one seat for the party losing the general election Seats without incumbents where a freshman will be elected Consequences of redistricting  Added seat: example, TX gains four seats  Redistricted hole: example, “gaps” where an incumbent could have run but due to district realignment decides not to run; usually occurs in states losing seats (such as IL) or not gaining seats (such as CA) Traditional open seats  Incumbent lost in primary to a challenger  Incumbent runs for another office: example IN-6 Pence (R)  Incumbent not seeking reelection: example OK-2 Boren (D)

5 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. BAB’S TERMINOLOGY (cont.) Don’t make yourself crazy If you don’t keep track yourself, find a source you feel is reliable and stick with that source; every pundit will label and then tally in a slightly different way. In the end, there are only 435 districts. If your list of plus/minus doesn’t add up to 435, the list is wrong. We don’t know the partisan impact of redistricting until we know the outcome of all general elections – Easiest way to get House to add back up to 435 is to count victories for one party as they occur – Tabulate the number of seats gained or lost for one party with a baseline of where each party began going into election night

6 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

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11 Hispanic Voters & Why The GOP Is In Trouble

12 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to U.S. POPULATION GROWTH, # Growth% Growth White 223,553,265215,333,3948,219,8713.8% Hispanic 50,477,59441,870,7038,606, % Black 38,929,31934,962,5693,966, % Asian 14,674,25212,471,8152,202, %

13 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

14 /BIPAC HISPANIC % OF POPULATION, UNDER 18 RANKSTATE % OF POP. UNDER 18 THAT IS HISPANIC 1New Mexico58.2% 2California51.2% 3Texas48.3% 4Arizona43.2% 5Nevada39.4% 6Colorado30.5% 7Florida27.6% 8Illinois23.1% 9New York22.5% 10New Jersey22.3%

15 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

16 /BIPAC FOR GOP TO WIN WHITE HOUSE IN 2012, THE GOP NEEDS TO WIN THE FOLLOWING STATES (ORDERED BY 2008 MAP, OBAMA WIN %)

17 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

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20 /BIPAC TEXAS GOES DEMOCRAT IN 2020 (ORDERED BY 2008 MAP, OBAMA WIN %)

21 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC.

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25 EXPECTED PARTISAN CHANGE -3 REP / +6 DEM (As of July 13, 2011) STATE (REAPPORTIONMENT CHANGE)REP CHANGEDEM CHANGE COMPLETED STATES Arkansas-- Illinois (-1)-5+4 Indiana+1 Iowa (-1)- Louisiana (-1)- Missouri (-1)- Nebraska-- Oklahoma-- NOT YET COMPLETE California-4+4 Georgia (+1)+2 Massachusetts (-1)- Michigan (-1)- Nevada (+1)-+1 Texas (+4)+2 South Carolina (+1)+1- Utah (+1)+1- Washington (+1)-+1 TOO EARLY Arizona (+1) Florida (+2) New Jersey (-1) New York (-2) Ohio (-2) Pennsylvania (-1)

26 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to REDISTRICTING TIMELINE STATEREDISTRICTING STATUSMAP DEADLINE + VRA (60 DAYS) 2011 LEGIS. SESSION FILING DEADLINE AlabamaSubmitted to DOJVRA StateApr 6, 2012 AlaskaAt Large DistrictApr 6, 2012 ArizonaRedistricting CommissionNoneVRA StateN/AMay 30, 2012 ArkansasCompletedMar 8, 2012 CaliforniaRedistricting CommissionVRA CountiesN/AMar 9, 2012 ColoradoCourts Will DecideApr 13, 2012 ConnecticutNoneSine DieJune 15, 2012 DelawareAt Large DistrictJuly 10, 2012 FloridaNoneVRA CountiesSine DieMay 4, 2012 GeorgiaNoneSine DieJune 29, 2012 HawaiiRedistricting CommissionN/AJune 5, 2012 IdahoRedistricting CommissionN/AMar 9, 2012 IllinoisCompletedDec 5, 2011 IndianaCompletedFeb 24, 2012 IowaCompletedMar 16, 2012 KansasNoneSine DieJune 10, 2012 KentuckyNoneSine DieJan 31, 2012 LouisianaCompleted  DOJAug 17, 2012 MaineMar 31, 2012Sine DieMar 15, 2012 MarylandNoneSine DieDec 5, 2011 MassachusettsNoneIn SessionMay 29, 2012 MichiganNeeds GOV SignatureVRA TownshipsMay 12, 2012 MinnesotaCourts Will DecideJune 5, 2012 MississippiDec 4, 2011VRA StateSine DieMar 1, 2012 MissouriCompletedMar 27, 2012

27 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to REDISTRICTING TIMELINE STATEREDISTRICTING STATUSMAP DEADLINE + VRA (60 DAYS) 2011 LEGIS. SESSION FILING DEADLINE MontanaAt Large DistrictMar 12, 2012 NebraskaCompletedMar 1, 2012 NevadaCourts Will DecideMar 16, 2012 New HampshireNoneVRA TownshipsSine DieJun 15, 2012 New JerseyRedistricting CommissionJan 17, 2012N/AApr 10, 2012 New MexicoNoneSine DieFeb 14, 2012 New YorkNov 1, 2012VRA CountiesJul 12, 2012 North CarolinaNov 1, 2011VRA CountiesSine DieFeb 1, 2012 North DakotaAt Large DistrictApr 13, 2012 OhioNoneIn SessionDec 7, 2012 OklahomaCompletedJune 6, 2012 OregonNeeds GOV SignatureJune 6, 2012 PennsylvaniaNoneIn SessionFeb 14, 2012 Rhode IslandNoneSine DieJune 27, 2012 South CarolinaNoneVRA StateSine DieMar 30, 2012 South DakotaAt Large DistrictMar 27, 2012 TennesseeNoneSine DieApr 5, 2012 TexasNeeds GOV SignatureVRA StateJan 2, 2012 UtahMar 8, 2012Sine DieMar 16, 2012 VermontAt Large DistrictMay 31, 2012 VirginiaJan 1, 2012VRA CountiesSpecial SessionMar 29, 2012 WashingtonRedistricting CommissionJan 1, 2012N/AJune 8, 2012 West VirginiaNoneSine DieJan 28, 2012 WisconsinNoneSpecial SessionJuly 29, 2012 WyomingAt Large DistrictJune 1, 2012

28 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to ARKANSAS

29 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. OLD AR CD MAPNEW AR CD MAP

30 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to ARKANSAS (3-1 REP) DISTELECTED IN 2010PARTY2012 INCUMBENTNOTES 01Rick CrawfordREP 02Tim GriffinREP 03Steve WomackREP 04Mike RossDEM PARTISAN CHANGENONE

31 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to ILLINOIS

32 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. OLD – 2001 CD MAPNEW – 2011 CD MAP

33 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to ILLINOIS (11-8 REP) DISTELECTED IN 2010PARTY2012 INCUMBENTNOTES 01Bobby RushDEM Bobby Rush 02Jesse Jackson, Jr.DEM Jesse Jackson, Jr. 03Daniel LipinskiDEM Daniel Lipinski 04Luis GutierrezDEM Luis Gutierrez 05Mike QuigleyDEM Quigley & Biggert ?DEM hold 06Peter RoskamREP Roskam & Biggert2 REP Incumbents 07Danny DavisDEM Danny Davis 08Joseph WalshREP DEM pickup 09Jan SchakowskyDEMJan Schakowsky 10Bob DoldREP Dold & Walsh ?Lean DEM pickup 11Adam KinzingerREP DEM pickup 12Jerry CostelloDEM Jerry Costello 13Judy BiggertREP Retirement? Lean DEM 14Randy HultgrenREP Walsh & Hultgren2 REP Incumbents ? 15Tim JohnsonREP Johnson & ShimkusRetirement? 16Donald ManzulloREP Kinzinger & Johnson ?2 REP Incumbents ? 17Bobby SchillingREP Schilling & ManzulloCompetitive 18Aaron SchockREP Shock & Johnson ?Shock moves here 19John ShimkusREP District Eliminated Due To Reapportionment PARTISAN CHANGE-5 REP / +4DEM

34 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to INDIANA

35 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. OLD – 2001 IN CD MAPNEW IN CD MAP

36 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to INDIANA (6-3 REP) DISTELECTED IN 2010PARTY2012 INCUMBENTNOTES 01Peter ViscloskyDEMPeter Visclosky 02Joe DonnellyDEMJoe Donnelly - OPENCompetitive/Lean REP 03Marlin StutzmanREPMarlin Stutzman 04Todd RokitaREPTodd RokitaRokita moves here 05Dan BurtonREPDan Burton 06Mike PenceREPMike Pence - OPEN 07Andre CarsonDEMAndre Carson 08Larry BucshonREPLarry Bucshon 09Todd YoungR EPTodd Young PARTISAN CHANGE+1 REP / -1 DEM

37 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to IOWA

38 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. OLD – 2001 IA CD MAPNEW – 2011 IA CD MAP

39 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to IOWA (3-2 DEM) DISTELECTED IN 2010PARTY2012 INCUMBENTNOTES 01Bruce BraleyDEMBruce Braley 02Dave LoebsackDEMDave LoebsackLoebsack moves here 03Leonard BoswellDEMBoswell & LathamCompetitive 04Tom LathamREPSteve KingVs. Christie Vilsack 05Steve KingREPDistrict Eliminated Due To Reapportionment PARTISAN CHANGE NONE TO +1 REP / -1 DEM

40 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to LOUISIANA

41 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. OLD – 2001 LA CD MAPNEW – 2011 LA CD MAP LA-03 MAP

42 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to LOUISIANA (6-1 REP) DISTELECTED IN 2010PARTY2012 INCUMBENTNOTES 01 Steve ScaliseREPSteve Scalise 02 Cedric RichmondDEMCedric Richmond 03 Jeff LandryREPLandry & Boustany Competitive Primary 04 John FlemingREPJohn Fleming 05 Rodney AlexanderREPRodney Alexander 06 Bill CassidyREPBill Cassidy 07 Charles Boustany Jr.REP District Eliminated Due To Reapportionment PARTISAN CHANGE 0 REP / -1 DEM

43 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to MISSOURI

44 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. OLD – 2001 MO CD MAPNEW – 2011 MO CD MAP

45 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to MISSOURI (6-3 REP) DISTELECTED IN 2010PARTY2012 INCUMBENTNOTES 01Lacy Clay, Jr.DEMLacy Clay, Jr. 02Todd AkinREPCarnahan ? Akin running for U.S. Senate 03Russ CarnahanDEM Luetkemeyer & Carnahan 04Vicky HartzlerREPVicky Hartzler 05Emanuel CleaverDEMEmanuel Cleaver 06Sam Graves, Jr.REPSam Graves, Jr. 07Billy LongREPBilly Long 08Jo Ann EmersonREPJo Ann Emerson 09Blaine LuetkemeyerREPLost Due To Reapportionment PARTISAN CHANGE0 REP / -1 DEM

46 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to NEBRASKA

47 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. OLD – 2001 NE CD MAP NEW – 2011 NE CD MAP

48 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to NEBRASKA (3-0 REP) DISTELECTED IN 2010PARTY2012 INCUMBENTNOTES 01 Jeff FortenberryREP Jeff Fortenberry 02 Lee TerryREP Lee Terry 03 Adrian SmithREP Adrian Smith PARTISAN CHANGENONE

49 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to OKLAHOMA

50 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. OLD – 2001 OK CD MAP NEW – 2011 OK CD MAP

51 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to OKLAHOMA (4-1 REP) DISTELECTED IN 2010PARTY2012 INCUMBENTNOTES 01 John SullivanREP John Sullivan 02 Dan BorenDEM Dan Boren 03 Frank LucasREP Frank Lucas 04 Tom ColeREP Tom Cole 05 James LankfordREP James Lankford PARTISAN CHANGENONE

52 © 2011 BIPAC. Material presented here is considered proprietary and the property of BIPAC. Reprints are with permission and any use of the data should give credit to BIPAC. THANK YOU! Michael R. Davis, IOM Vice President, Political Programs BIPAC (202) Follow us at: /BIPAC Blog – FightsForJobs.com

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