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N ORTH D AKOTA U NIVERSITY S YSTEM S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN S UMMARY OF F INDINGS AND R ECOMMENDATIONS P RESENTED TO THE S TATE B OARD OF H IGHER E DUCATION.

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Presentation on theme: "N ORTH D AKOTA U NIVERSITY S YSTEM S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN S UMMARY OF F INDINGS AND R ECOMMENDATIONS P RESENTED TO THE S TATE B OARD OF H IGHER E DUCATION."— Presentation transcript:

1 N ORTH D AKOTA U NIVERSITY S YSTEM S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN S UMMARY OF F INDINGS AND R ECOMMENDATIONS P RESENTED TO THE S TATE B OARD OF H IGHER E DUCATION M AY 29, 2014

2 Dan Paulien President Paulien & Associates, Inc. (303) NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN Frank Markley Principal Paulien & Associates, Inc. (303) Peter Scanlon Vice President, Professional Services VFA, Inc. (617)

3 D EMOGRAPHIC A NALYSIS Section 1 NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN

4 P OPULATION P ROJECTIONS 1960 to 2010: Statewide resident population increased by 6.3% 2010 to 2025: Statewide resident population is expected to increase by 25% (four times) the 50-year rate due to the impact of energy-related employment U.S. Census counts permanent residents. If temporary workers who claim residency in other states are factored into the equation, the population projections would be higher. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 4

5 P OPULATION P ROJECTIONS Regions 1, 2, 8: Will experience disproportionate share of the population growth by 2025 Moderate population growth in Regions 5 and 7 by 2025, as these areas include two of the larger urban areas NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 5 Regions 1, 5: Greatest percentage of population increases between 2000 and 2013 Regions 2, 7, 8: Double-digit percentage increases in population between 2000 and 2013

6 P OPULATION P ROJECTIONS The major population changes have occurred and will continue in the western part of the state (Williams, Mountrail, and McKenzie Counties). The balance of the state is projected to have modest growth. Population growth is proportional to projections for oil field development in the petroleum industry and future employment in the Williston Basin. Percent Population Change by County: NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 6 20% to 47% 10% to 20% 5% to 10% 0% to 5% -5% to 0%

7 R EGION OF O RIGIN -F IRST T IME S TUDENTS Students from the Bakken and Bismarck regions are more inclined to start their higher education experience at a 2-year college, while students from Fargo and Grand Forks are more likely to attend one of the research universities. Student from the “Other” region attended 2-year colleges slightly more than the research universities. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 7

8 R EGION OF O RIGIN – F IRST T IME S TUDENTS In general, college attendance patterns are determined largely by the nature of the institution(s) located within the region. This pattern is true for recent high school graduates and is even more pronounced for part-time and adult students. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 8

9 P ARTICIPATION R ATES Participation rates for the research universities have increased from 3.9% to 4.1% over the 10-year period. Community colleges have also increased participation rates, but at a slower rate of 1.4% in 2003 to a high of 1.7% in The regional universities participation rate has remained flat and recently declined to 1.0% The 6.6% statewide participation rate is identical for 2003 and 2013, but spiked between 2009 and 2011 For comparison, the 2012 statewide participation rate in Minnesota using Minnesota State Colleges and University (MnSCU) System enrollments and state population data was 8.0% NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 9

10 D EMOGRAPHICS S UMMARY Using participation rate analysis, by 2025 it is estimated that NDUS institutions could enroll more than 60,000 students, an increase of 26% Source: WICHE NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 10

11 W ORKFORCE /P ROGRAM A LIGNMENT Section 2 NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 11

12 W ORKFORCE A LIGNMENT S TRATEGY Workforce Alignment was analyzed from three different perspectives: 1)The Workforce projections developed by the Georgetown Center for Education and the Workforce (Demand-side Projections) 2)Entry-level education level and wages by education classification produced by the North Dakota Labor Market Information Center 3)Analysis of Burning Glass data (Demand and Supply Side Analysis) Outcomes generally pointed in the same direction but differences in data collection processes and projection methodologies produced discrepancies Occupational projections extend through Less predictable economic circumstances make these forecasts less reliable over time. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 12

13 W ORKFORCE A LIGNMENT The Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce notes statewide job openings requiring 41,000 Bachelor’s degrees and 22,000 Associate degrees. If one presumes that, in addition to jobs requiring an associate’s degree, that many of the jobs in the Some College No Degree category (40,000) will require individuals to have certifications of some kind, the gap between baccalaureate and sub- baccalaureate level diminishes considerably. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 13

14 W ORKFORCE A LIGNMENT – B URNING G LASS S TATEWIDE : B ACCALAUREATE AND A BOVE Supply and demand are in general equilibrium at the baccalaureate and above level. One area of slight under-supply is Computer and IT Professionals, but there is no evidence of lack of capacity at the four-year institutions. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 14

15 W ORKFORCE A LIGNMENT – B URNING G LASS S TATEWIDE : S UB -B ACCALAUREATE At the sub-baccalaureate level, the findings indicate a substantial unfilled demand for Maintenance, Repair & Installation workers and for Nursing occupations. There is also a smaller unfilled demand for Finance positions and lower-wage Clerical and Support workers in the healthcare industry. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 15

16 W ORKFORCE A LIGNMENT – B URNING G LASS B AKKEN R EGION : B ACCALAUREATE AND A BOVE Overall, there is under-supply in both baccalaureate and sub- baccalaureate career fields in the Bakken Region. The greatest need at the baccalaureate and above level is in the Allied Health, Computer & IT, Nursing, and Management career areas. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 16

17 W ORKFORCE A LIGNMENT – B URNING G LASS B AKKEN R EGION : S UB -B ACCALAUREATE Overall, there is under-supply in both baccalaureate and sub- baccalaureate career fields in the Bakken Region. The greatest need at the sub-baccalaureate level is in the Maintenance, Repair & Installation career area where the needs in this region are driving the statewide need. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 17

18 W ORKFORCE W AGES BY E DUCATION L EVEL NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 18 Source: Labor Market Information Center – Job Service of North Dakota

19 F ACILITY C ONDITION A SSESSMENT Section 3 NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 19

20 1. R EVIEW C APITAL P ROJECTS I DENTIFIED BY EACH NDUS S CHOOL A RE SCHOOLS NOMINATING PROJECTS THAT ARE NEEDED AND ARE THEIR COST ESTIMATES CREDIBLE ? NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 20

21 1. R EVIEW C APITAL P ROJECTS I DENTIFIED BY EACH NDUS S CHOOL A RE SCHOOLS NOMINATING PROJECTS THAT ARE NEEDED AND ARE THEIR COST ESTIMATES CREDIBLE ? NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 21

22 2. R EVIEW H EATING P LANTS ’ C ONDITION W HICH PLANTS ARE MOST IN NEED OF URGENT REPAIR ? NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 22

23 2. R EVIEW H EATING P LANTS ’ C ONDITION W HICH PLANTS ’ NEEDS ARE MOST URGENT ? NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 23 Heating Plant Needs Replace-in-Kind Renewal Estimate*Subtotal Immediate Needs Two schools have plants that experienced failures during the 2013-’14 winter and have immediate renewal needs: 12,426,000 8,919,000 $ 21,345,000 Within 2 Years Two schools have plants in need of major renewals within 2 years: UND6,037,000 WSC215,000 6,252,000 Within 3-4 Years Five schools have plants in need of renewals within 3-4 years: NDSCS7,250,000 DSU2,661,000 MiSU995,000 BSC991,000 DCB545,000 12,436,000 Good Condition Two schools have plants currently in good operating condition: MaSU7,000 LRSC0 7,000 TOTAL FOR ALL HEATING PLANTS$ 40,040,000 VCSU NDSU

24 3. A SSESS THE C ONDITION OF S AMPLE B UILDINGS System Lifecycle Assessment Visual + interviews “Replace-in-kind” for existing use Costs from R.S. Means, adjusted for local markets No upgrades for program, use, capacity or hazmat, etc. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 24

25 3. A SSESS THE C ONDITION OF S AMPLE B UILDINGS W HICH SAMPLE BUILDINGS ARE IN BAD CONDITION ? (S AMPLE BUILDINGS SHOWN, RANKED WORST TO BEST FCI ) NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 25

26 3. A SSESS THE C ONDITION OF S AMPLE B UILDINGS W HICH SAMPLE BUILDINGS NEED THE MOST $$? (S AMPLE BUILDINGS SHOWN, RANKED MOST TO LEAST $$ NEEDED ) NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 26

27 3. A SSESS THE C ONDITION OF S AMPLE B UILDINGS W HAT IS THE TOTAL DEFERRED MAINTENANCE LIABILITY FOR NDUS? NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 27

28 3. A SSESS THE C ONDITION OF S AMPLE B UILDINGS W HAT IS THE TOTAL DEFERRED MAINTENANCE LIABILITY FOR NDUS? 41 Buildings sampled (24% of Appropriated GSF) Def’d Maint: $86/SF “Fair” Weighted:$78/SF Def’d Maint. for 9.7M GSF: $756M Heating Plants: $40M Site (NDSCS only): $12M TOTAL: $808M NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 28

29 3. A SSESS THE C ONDITION OF S AMPLE B UILDINGS W HAT IS THE TOTAL DEFERRED MAINTENANCE LIABILITY FOR NDUS? Starting DM Backlog Biennial Funding6 YR Funding Ending DM Backlog Maintain “Fair”$808M$266M$798M$808M ~2% of CRV$808M$100M$300M$1,512M Target “Better”$808M$448M$1,345M$404M Continue Current$808M$40M$120M$1,720M NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 29

30 3. A SSESS THE C ONDITION OF S AMPLE B UILDINGS W HAT IS THE TOTAL DEFERRED MAINTENANCE LIABILITY FOR NDUS? NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 30

31 D EFERRED M AINTENANCE & C APITAL P ROJECTS A PPROVAL P ROCESS Section 4 NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN

32 D EFERRED M AINTENANCE & C APITAL P ROJECTS - K EY F INDINGS Modify the formula for the extraordinary repairs budget Improve reporting on deferred maintenance liability Documentation and central repository Assess the balance of the NDUS Type I/Type II facilities Remove the limit on projects that can be submitted by each institution in a given biennium Establish transparent prioritization and approval criteria for maintenance & capital projects NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 32

33 D EFERRED M AINTENANCE & C APITAL P ROJECTS – R ECOMMENDATIONS Provide central resources for project development and estimating Streamline consent agenda submittals for approval Establish and communicate overall objectives and priorities Evaluate all submitted projects on merits according to prioritization criteria Reduce length of time between project submittal and approval Increase the dollar levels for which a project requires State oversight NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 33

34 R EVIEW OF I NDIVIDUAL M ASTER P LANS Section 5 NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 34

35 S TRATEGIC F RAMEWORK Develop System strategic goals – Engage in inclusive strategic planning process – Develop comprehensive evaluation of higher education needs in the state – Identify vision for the future (5-10 years) and design strategies/policies to effectively achieve them Involve NDUS in determining most effective strategic alliances between institutions Add narrative section discussing planning process NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 35

36 I DENTIFY S PACE N EEDS Given the value of the physical space assets and the fiduciary responsibility to maintain them, investment in space management tools and resources is merited, especially if one considers the cost of constructing new buildings. For these fiscal reasons, space inventory and management is an industry best practice. Facilitate development of an accurate space and classroom inventory Require that plans include a space utilization study or analysis Require that plans include a space needs analysis with a projection of space needs and clearly communicate the major drivers of facility needs (e.g., enrollment, pedagogy, deferred maintenance, housing) NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 36

37 R EVISE M ASTER P LANNING P ROCESS Align master planning with long-range strategic planning horizons of 5-10 years ( 6 years with biennial cycle) Separate master planning from capital planning – Perform capital planning on an annual or biennial cycle Within the biennial for capital planning, allow for annual updates due to inflation, program changes, market conditions and/or other factors – Allow for an expedited process for campus self-funded projects (e.g., funded from gifts, grants, auxiliaries, etc.) Separate capital program-driven projects from maintenance-driven projects and develop a separate prioritization process at the system level for each NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 37

38 D ESIGN / C ONSTRUCTION S TANDARDS Promote development of campus and system level standards for construction materials, and include volume discount strategies. Consider best practices for sustainable design and budget accordingly, especially where best practices save energy and other future operating expenditures. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 38

39 S TANDARDS AND M ETRICS University System Office is in a unique position to ensure consistency of software systems and protocols, but central funding sources may be needed. – Many campuses had some level of implementation of the FAMIS work order system, but did not have the resources to either purchase the space and capital projects modules, implement the software migration, and/or populate and maintain the databases – Inconsistencies about how the classroom Scheduling software, Ad Astra, was implemented and that database maintained and updated were found – Significant investments had been made at the System level regarding IT systems and data center resources, but these were not fully utilized NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 39

40 C APITAL R EQUEST E VALUATIONS Section 6 NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 40

41 M ACRO -L EVEL A NALYSIS A PPROACH NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 41 Macro-level analytic takes a dozen or so major space types typical on a given campus within the educational and general space normally funded by the State and gives the campus a per student target number based on experience from other institutions – Type of institution and unique system objectives, such as classroom and laboratory utilization targets, that may be set are also taken into consideration Results in a need or surplus analysis at current and agreed-to target years for each major space type and an overall figure for each campus – Can be analyzed both as total square footage and as percentage of need – Helpful tool in determining whether a specific institution shows needs based on these metrics in the categories for which they are requesting space Data Issues: Facilities room inventory data was not available at most of the institutions. – For such a process to be implemented, all institutions would need to develop room-by-room facilities inventories Calculations made of existing space per student for each of the categories would be compared with a square foot per student number that the consultant recommends for that institution and that category – Based on the consultant’s knowledge of what similar institutions are doing, an understanding the specific role and mission of the North Dakota institutions, and providing institution-specific findings within the broad categories of two-year, four-year, and research university institutions

42 C APITAL R EQUEST E VALUATIONS Implement a space inventory database NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 42

43 C AMPUS S PACE S UMMARIES NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 43 Facilities information across the System was provided in gross square feet by building ° Type I – Direct Academic Space ° Type II – Other State Supported Space ° Type III – Auxiliary Space Total of Types I and II is most applicable for this kind of analysis This analysis is usually done in assignable square feet (ASF), so the consultant used 65% of the GSF to approximate the ASF, which is the percentage recommended by the NDUS project manager NDUS is urged to look to whether additional reporting tables should be developed to more accurately reflect the onsite instruction

44 C AMPUS S PACE S UMMARIES NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 44

45 R ESEARCH AND D EVELOPMENT I SSUES Section 7 NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 45

46 R&D I SSUES Both NDSU and UND: – Show rates of increased research activities that exceed peers – Have approximately one-half the faculty of their peers UND has relatively low research revenue in comparison to benchmark universities NDSU has relatively high research revenue in comparison to their benchmarked universities, but over half of their research volume is in Agriculture NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 46

47 C ONCLUSIONS Section 8 NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 47

48 K EY F INDINGS Strong population growth will result in student growth for NDUS Workforce needs will be strongest in the Bakken area. Fargo area has second strongest needs. Deferred maintenance needs are significant. Heating plants need investment at most campuses. Master plans do not have a needs component. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 48

49 K EY R ECOMMENDATIONS Substantially increase funding for deferred maintenance, including heating plants. Develop a long-range plan to provide ongoing funding for deferred maintenance. Develop a campus facilities inventory (room level) at each campus. Conduct classroom utilization analysis at each campus. Tie strategic objectives, utilization, and needs measures to campus master planning. Develop ranking criteria for deferred maintenance and capital projects. NDUS S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN 49

50 N ORTH D AKOTA U NIVERSITY S YSTEM S YSTEMWIDE M ASTER P LAN S UMMARY OF F INDINGS /R ECOMMENDATIONS Presented to the State Board of Higher Education Thank you for your time and attention. Are there any questions you would like to ask?


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