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Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING.

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Presentation on theme: "Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING."— Presentation transcript:

1 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 0 Latin America Investment Case Assessing the region in current conditions October 2008

2 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline Latin American Equities have declined sharply over the past quarter…

3 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 2 Vulnerability of Latin America: myth or reality? Commodities vulnerability?True but there is more to the story! Currency impact?Cushion from external shocks exist Cost of capital sensitivity?Central banks have been pre-emptive Growth scenario? Less but more domestic! Valuations in a historical contextEarnings downside is already priced-in Attractive and with better fundamentals REALITY: Sound economic policy is the best buffer against external shocks and Latin America has learned its lessons from past failures.

4 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 3 Feeding the dragon…Latin supplier! China is key China % of total world consumption But the structural demand from China and soon from India are the sweetener for the region.

5 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 4 Latin Equities have definitely tumbled on commodities drop

6 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline …Currencies weakened with the drop in commodities

7 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 6 Latin Macro scorecard

8 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 7 MACRO DATA deteriorating but…

9 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 8 Domestic story has been a driver of the expansion as well Solid GDP growth amid faltering performance of export volume Domestic demand underpinning Latin America GDP growth Source: JPMorgan

10 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 9 The region has deleveraged and has built a cushion… External debt/ CA revenues External debt/ GDP % of CA revenues% of GDP Debt service ratio US$ billion Reserves/ following year’s debt service Foreign reserves Source: JPMorgan

11 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 10 Commodities and openness…diversity of plays and hedges! Latin America trade breakdown Source: JPMorgan

12 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 11 External vulnerability? Latin less open than you think… And more GEMS oriented

13 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 12 External vulnerability? … Clearly a better picture…

14 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 13 External solvency? …a new paradigm

15 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 14 Remittances: half of them in the world are going to Latin America But the main countries are not that affected. Watch Mexico but now 39M Spanish speaking people live in the US.

16 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 15 GDP: what could go wrong? Impact on EPS:2009: +11% EPS 2009 BEAR:-33% EPS and valuations pricing it by now EXTREME:-54% EPS

17 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline Growth will reverse to the mean or more… Panorama of deceleration but still nice opportunities CPI has been an issue in Latam on the back of food components and capacity utilization constraints.

18 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline Central banks have been vigilant… Most of the Central banks have been preemptive rather than reactive and we believe that 2009 will be the year of easing monetary policies.

19 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline Consequently Latin countries have high real rates… A signal of maturity and credibility: cost of capital should not explode like in the past.

20 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 19 Valuations in the current context Valuations are clearly getting attractive… Recessionary correction!

21 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline 20 Clean-up of balance-sheets: DEBT / EQUITY ratios Asia has purged 1998 debt Latin has done its fair share of deleveraging since 2001 devaluations

22 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline Valuations in a historical context In general, valuations are not demanding anymore but still not at rock-bottom levels. On a P/B basis, the region is not cheap but it has already been de-rated if one considers the ROE…

23 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline These will have to come down… Considering that half of regional EBITDA is represented by commodity producers, there is downside risk to the aggregated data. However, we mentioned that the external vulnerabilities are less than in the past… There is still the other half to exploit And EPS dispersion is a better environment to find investment opportunities

24 Do not put content on the brand signature area Orange RGB= 255,102,000 Light blue RGB= 180,195,225 Dark blue RGB= 000,000,102 Grey RGB= 150,150,150 ING colour balance Guideline


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