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UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008 Climate Change and Conflict in Darfur Presentation material for educators and activists developed by: UnderstandingSudan.org latest version: April 25, 2008
Geography Sudan in the Region 2 Darfur 1 Sudan in the World 1. rightsmaps.com/html/sudmap1.html and 2. UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
An Influential View on Darfur “You take Darfur, the worst crisis right now on the planet. Darfur, at its core, is a conflict of insufficient rainfall.” –Jeffrey Sachs, Director, Earth Institute at Columbia University, author of The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
More Sachs Quotes on the Darfur Crisis “Two things have happened. First, the population has doubled in the last generation, and second, the rainfall has gone down sharply. These are very hungry, crowded people, and now they are killing each other.” “Several studies have shown that a temporary decline in rainfall has generally been associated throughout sub- Saharan Africa with a marked rise in the likelihood of violent conflict in the following months.” Scientific American, July 2006 This is a place without enough rainfall, right now, to keep the population alive. UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
More Sachs “When the rains faltered in the 1980s, violence ensued. Communities fought to survive by raiding others and attempting to seize or protect scarce water and food supplies. A drought-induced famine is much more likely to trigger conflict in a place that is already impoverished and bereft of any cushion of physical or financial resources. Darfur was also pushed over the edge by ethnic and political conflict, with ambitious, violent and unscrupulous leaders preying on the ethnic divisions.” Scientific American, July 2006 So, drought “triggered” conflict, but ethnic and political conflict also “pushed” UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
Proponents of “Darfur as a Resource Conflict” Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth” –Expect more events like this with global climate change Groups such as WWF, Brookings Institute and UNEP have espoused this view Omar Al Bashir, President of Sudan UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
Darfur as an Environmental Crisis Short-term rainfall decline –Reductions in rainfall in 2002 led to 2003 conflict? Long-term rainfall decline –Darfur has never really rebound from the droughts of the , and 1990? Population Growth –Increase in both human and animal population leads to fighting? UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
Violent Environments? Environmental Determinist Model (Kaplan 1994; Homer-Dixon 1999) –Resource induced scarcity → population growth → environmental conflict Political Ecology Model (Peluso and Watts 2001; Hartmann 2001) –structural elements determine how resources are allocated –abundance of resources is equally likely to cause violence. –Need to look at place-specific, spatially oriented interactions among relations of production, environmental process and discourse UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
Resource Conflict Scenario Pasture and land crisis –Nomadic groups have been prevented from gaining access to pasture for their animals –Desertification has reduced the productivity of land, leading to increased conflict and increased poverty Water Crisis –Insufficient water has led to conflicts over natural resources UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
More on the Pastoralist-Farmer Conflict Livelihoods Under Siege report “The traditional symbiosis between herder and farmer has been eroded in recent decades as people’s livelihoods have converged, shifting the moral geography of herder and farmer and bringing them into conflict with one another.” “Declining rainfall and encroaching desertification have contributed to North–South migration which, combined with increasing population pressures, has created more direct competition for access to natural resources.” p. 109, Darfur - Livelihoods Under Siege, Young, H., Osman, A.M., Aklilu, Y., Dale, R., Badri, B. and Fuddle, A.J.A. (June 2005) Feinstein International Famine Center, Tufts University, Medford, MA USA UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
The pastoralist-farmer conflict version Environmental degradation as a cause of conflict in Darfur conference proceedings “There is an essential need to address the root cause of the problem – competition over dwindling natural resources.” “Deterioration in both rainfall and land fertility has led to a sharp decline in the production of rain-fed crops. Competition between settled pastoralist farmers and nomads is a feature of the natural resources-based conflicts in Darfur.” “The increased population has pressed its need for a livelihood upon the natural resources and has thus resulted in great pressure upon, overuse and misuse of these resources. In turn the ecological conditions have changed through declining rainfall, drought and desertification etc.” p. 7, 15 and p. 35, Environmental degradation as a cause of conflict in Darfur, University for Peace Africa Programme, UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
Following graphs illuminate a subset of relevant hypotheses Was there a short-term decline in rainfall? Was there a long-term decline in rainfall? Was there a structural break in rainfall? Do structural breaks in rainfall cause conflict decades later? See source paper: Michael Kevane and Leslie Gray, “Darfur: Conflict and Rainfall” Santa Clara University, UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2008
UnderstandingSudan.org University of California, Berkeley © 2006
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