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HOUSING FINANCE IN EMERGING MARKETS Policy And Regulatory Challenges The World Bank March 2003 HOUSING FINANCE SYSTEMS IN EMERGING MARKETS : AN OVERVIEW.

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Presentation on theme: "HOUSING FINANCE IN EMERGING MARKETS Policy And Regulatory Challenges The World Bank March 2003 HOUSING FINANCE SYSTEMS IN EMERGING MARKETS : AN OVERVIEW."— Presentation transcript:

1 HOUSING FINANCE IN EMERGING MARKETS Policy And Regulatory Challenges The World Bank March 2003 HOUSING FINANCE SYSTEMS IN EMERGING MARKETS : AN OVERVIEW OF CURRENT ISSUES 10 TH March 2003 Bertrand RENAUD, Ph.D. brenaud@cal.berkeley.edu

2 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 2 Agenda 1. World trends are now producing a massive latent demand for housing finance 2. Today, housing finance systems in emerging economies are often very small. 3. Strategies to develop mortgage finance systems are an integral part of overall financial development 4. The three core functions of mortgage finance systems are universal. System expansion depends on lowering the costs of these core functions. 5. There is no universally applicable model of a mortgage finance system. Each national system results form macroeconomic conditions, banking regulations, the structure of the banking system, taxation, subsidy programs and the organization of housing markets. These factors shape the path between bank-based and capital-market based mortgage loan delivery channels.

3 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 3 1 AD500100015002000 Billion 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0 200 Million 1650: 500 Million 1850: 1 Billion 1930: 2 Billion 1975: 4 Billion mid-1995: 5.73 Billion The World Almanac and Book of Facts 1996 World population passed 6 billion at the start of this third millennium

4 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 4 - construction sector employment - efficient real estate development - easier labor mobility - capital market development - more efficient resources allocation - lowered macroeconomic volatility Urbanization creates a strong latent demand for mortgage finance International experience shows that a well functioning mortgage market will provide very large external benefits to the national economy:

5 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 5 In 1900, The UK had the only population that was more than 50% urban “ The invention of the amortized loan is of such importance [ … ] that it should rank with the invention of the steam engine in changing the face of Britain.” A.A. Nevitt, Housing, Taxation and Subsidies, 1966

6 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 6 Over 50% Less than 50% Least urbanized The world is now crossing the 50% urban threshold and has passed the 6 billion mark

7 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 7 Agenda 1. World trends are now producing a massive latent demand for housing finance 2. Today, housing finance systems in emerging economies are often very small 3. Strategies to develop mortgage finance systems are an integral part of overall financial development 4. The core functions of mortgage finance systems are universal. System expansion depends on lowering the costs of these core functions. 5. There is no universally applicable model of a mortgage finance system. Each national system results form macroeconomic conditions, banking regulations, the structure of the banking system, taxation, subsidy programs and the organization of housing markets. These factors shape the path between bank-based and capital-market based mortgage loan delivery channels.

8 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 8 3. East & Southeast Asia, circa 1998 1. Latin America, circa 1998 4. Western Europe, 2001 2. Middle East, 1999-2001 Housing finance depth : Ratios of outstanding mortgage loans to GDP (not scaled) US 1998: 53%EU-15, 2001 : 39%

9 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 9 BREAKDOWN OF LENDING RATES: MEXICO, 4Q-1993 Macroeconomic volatility affects long- term residential mortgage lending disproportionately. FIRST AND FOREMOST: macroeconomic stability is a prerequisite Source: Glaessner & Ochs, 1994 4Q-1993 Recurrent episodes of macroeconomic volatility have a strong negative impact on housing finance systems. The experience of Mexico in the 1980s and 1990s illustrates a rather typical scenario: high and volatile inflation implies very high real interest rates, which confines market-based mortgage finance to a fraction of the high-income population The government takes a dominant role in housing finance because of the widespread inability to afford mortgage finance and serious income inequalities The housing finance system remains small and becomes fragmented into uncoordinated and subsidized administrative programs Low level of domestic financial savings lead to a dependence of the housing finance system on central bank refinancing and/or international borrowings. CB refinancing and moral hazard problem can cause large quasi-fiscal deficits, which tend to perpetuate difficulties. RETURN TO STABILITY: Mexico has regained control over its macroeconomic stability. Inflation and domestic interest rates have declined to levels not experienced in 15 years. As a result, long-delayed structural changes toward an integrated market-based housing finance system are now taking place.

10 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 10 SECOND: Finance is a derivative of the real economy (Andrew Sheng, 1999) EXAMPLE: Citywide average housing price to income ratios in selected capitals of the Middle- East in 2000. Source: World Bank informal estimates “While all financial systems solve similar problems, they solve them in different ways, and any advice on financial policy and institutional development must take the unique features of the economic structure into account” Millard Long, 2002 One must understand how local housing markets operate. In some markets the share of informal or extra-legal housing can be very large. In the formal sector, three distinct policy dimensions affect access to home ownership : 2. The TOTAL COST OF MORTGAGE BORROWING, which includes (a) the all- in-cost of funding mortgage loans, and (b) taxes and fees faced by borrowers. 3. The STRUCTURE OF SUBSIDIES and the financial, tax, regulatory and production channels through which a government may subsidize some types of housing -- explicitly or implicitly. 1. The PRICE OF HOUSING UNITS relative to the purchasing power of households is often measured by the housing price-to- income (PIR) or “affordability” ratio. Markets where the PIR ratio rises above 5 face serious demand and financing constraints and higher default risks.

11 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 11 THIRD: Transaction taxes and fees can suppress mortgage demand

12 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 12 FOURTH: In finance, small is seldom efficient  With the information technology revolution, the core functions of a mortgage finance system benefit from large economies of scale.  How common are small financial systems?  120 countries i.e. two out of three countries had an M2 (stock of money) under US $10 billion in 1999, which is the size of a medium-sire regional bank in a developed market. These systems served 800 million people.  Out of those, 60 countries had M2 under $1 Billion, which is the size of a small bank. These countries represent 200 million people.  Small financial systems tend to be limited in scope, expensive and of limited quality. It is more difficult to diversify risks and to maintain liquidity. Regulation and supervision are expensive.  The solution? Openness to external markets, and regional solutions can offset these drawbacks. But the risks of opening up the system must be carefully managed. NETWORK EXTERNALITIES: The more people use a network, the more valuable it is for those who are connected and the lower is the unit cost of individual transactions

13 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 13  Commercial lending: –Diversified supply of housing units, –Production completed in short amount of time –Professional developers & organized R.E. industry  State financing: –Standardized, monotonous, low value units (high resource cost, low use value for the occupants) –Inefficient industrial housing systems –Elimination of the real estate and financial services professions leading to critical skills constraints  Informal financing: –The visible outcome of policy and institutional failures –Slow incremental housing based on retained savings –“Self-development” by owners using small craftsmen AS A RESULT: Cities are build the way they are financed (B. Renaud, 1987) 54% informal housing 80% have access to formal finance Access to housing finance services can vary widely according to macroeconomic conditions, banking systems, and the development of real estate markets MEXICO: Impact of past chronic macroeconomic instability

14 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 14 Most countries benefit from integrated reviews of their housing finance system  Negative impact on housing affordability  Long delays in achieving home- ownership  Protracted building periods: developing cities as permanent construction sites.  Inefficiencies in the development and use of the urban infrastructure  Small, inefficient real estate industry  Together these problems appear to contribute to a more skewed income distribution, i.e. a small middle class; especially in volatile economies. WHAT HOUSING FINANCE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY ? A POLICY DANGER: vicious circle of perceived needs for large subsidies THE LONG-TERM GOALS: a low-cost, diversified mortgage finance system an innovative industry risks allocated to those best able to bear them a stable system resilient to economic shocks an organized, competitive housing industry Poor access to housing finance has multiple consequences:

15 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 15 Agenda 1. World trends are now producing a massive latent demand for housing finance 2. Today, housing finance systems in emerging economies are often very small 3. Strategies to develop mortgage finance systems are an integral part of overall financial development 4. The three core functions of mortgage finance systems are universal. System expansion depends on lowering the costs of these core functions. 5. There is no universally applicable model of a mortgage finance system. Each national system results form macroeconomic conditions, banking regulations, the structure of the banking system, taxation, subsidy programs and the organization of housing markets. These factors shape the path between bank-based and capital-market based mortgage loan delivery channels.

16 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 16 Changing role of the State Fiscal restraint for greater macroeconomic stability Economic and political decentralization Privatization to leverage scarce public resources More common non-state provision of “public” services Need to restructure subsidies and achieve better social policies Greater demand for transparency and accountability Present changes in housing finance are part of broader financial trends Structural changes in the financial sector Many forces are leading to a breakdown in inter-industry and inter- country barriers including: financial innovation, technology, regulation and taxation Explicit focus of regulation and supervision on risk management Convergence toward international standards in: accounting (IAS), banking (Basel II), insurance, securities market (IOSCO), valuation (IVSC) Renewed concern about governance

17 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 17 Mortgage finance is an integral part of a sustainable financial system This financial environment determines the ALL-IN COST OF MORTGAGE FINANCE (to be defined later)

18 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 18 Leading government role in financial system:  Ceilings on interest rates on bank deposits  High reserve requirement on banks  Government directed bank credit  Micromanaging banks, little autonomy  Restrictions on entry, especially foreigners  Restrictions on capital flows Major changes in financial markets since the 1980s have created a new environment Relaxation of financial constraints :  Elimination of interest rate controls  Lowering of bank reserve requirements  Reduced interferences with bank  management decisions (focus on risks)  Privatization of nationalized banks  Foreign bank competition  Facilitation of capital inflows FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION since 1980s POST WW-2 DIRECTED-CREDIT POLICIES Specialized housing finance circuits Boundaries are breaking down Full integration with overall financial system High rate of innovation + market deepening Systems more resilient to shocks

19 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 19 Innovations in the financial services industry are also reconfiguring housing finance

20 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 20 SUBSIDY REFORMS are on the critical path of better housing finance systems Fragmentation of the housing finance system and crowding out of private lenders by subsidized state-owned institutions and programs Negative impact on economic growth and stability when subsidies grow into a large share of GDP under macro-instability. International experience suggests that total housing subsidies above 2% of GDP are not consistent with stability. Negative effects on fiscal stability and budgetary efficiency when a high share of national housing budgets goes into large and poorly targeted financial subsidies Need to address better large or growing income inequalities Four major reasons for housing finance subsidy reforms are:

21 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 21 The demand side of mortgage finance also shapes the organization of the industry The demand for mortgage finance Is both income- and interest rate elastic. The range of housing options is likely to vary across income groups, which can lead to different market segments with distinct institutional structures within the national housing finance system. “Community-based” Institutions. Microfinance Bank-based or market- based system with some government support Bank-based or market- based system without government support WHAT MORTGAGE MARKET SEGMENTATION ?

22 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 22 Agenda 1. World trends are now producing a massive latent demand for housing finance 2. Today, housing finance systems in emerging economies are often very small 3. Strategies to develop mortgage finance systems are an integral part of overall financial development 4. The three core functions of mortgage finance systems are universal. System expansion depends on lowering the costs of these core functions. 5. There is no universally applicable model of a mortgage finance system. Each national system results form macroeconomic conditions, banking regulations, the structure of the banking system, taxation, subsidy programs and the organization of housing markets. These factors shape the path between bank-based and capital-market based mortgage loan delivery channels.

23 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 23 THERE ARE THREE CORE FUNCTIONS TO ANY MORTGAGE SYSTEM MORTGAGE ORIGINATION is the process through which mortgage debt is created. It is comparable to the underwriting function for other loans and capital market securities. MORTGAGE HOLDING refers to the activity of institutions and other investors who own or hold mortgage debt. When the mortgage originator and the mortgage holder differ, it is necessary to transfer mortgage ownership. The high risk, high information costs, and small size of individual mortgages complicate the mortgage transfer process. MORTGAGE SERVICING refers to a series of activities, including: (1)collecting the monthly payments from the borrowers and transmitting the funds to the holders, (2)confirming that the borrower maintains property insurance and pays property taxes, and (3)carrying out the foreclosure process in cases of default. These three functions are increasingly subject to large economies of scale THE MORTGAGE HOLDING FUNCTION IS THE STRATEGIC FUNCTION IN ANY MORTGAGE SYSTEM. Liquidity risk Credit risk Interest rate risk Prepayment risk

24 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 24

25 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 25 1. CREDIT RISK can create costly loan origination and servicing issues Alternative collaterals 4. Foreclosure alternatives LOAN-TO-VALUE RATIO (LTV) 2. Quality of valuation LOAN PAYMENT-TO - INCOME RATIO (PITI) Trust mechanisms of Latin America Loan-purchase agreements THE HOLY GRAIL: RISK-BASED LENDING that can integrate operationally: - Characteristics of the borrower - Mortgage design choice - Characteristics of the housing units Plus: - private mortgage insurance? - public mortgage insurance? - family allowances? Localized/ on site forms of servicing Mortgage Insurance Type 2: Public or mutual insurance aiming to to lower risks to marginal income borrowers facing greater credit risks and increase LTV as well. (Examples: FHA in US, FGAS in France). Mortgage Insurance Type 3: Commercial insurance Aiming to raise the LTV of borrowers (Examples: US PMI, British MIG) Mortgage Insurance Type 1: to remedy weakness in titling and registration 1. Quality of property as collateral Land laws, civil codes, judicial systems, registries : - Civil Law (Continental Europe, LAC) - Common Law (UK, etc..) - Ottoman Law (Middle East) - Legacy of Soviet laws and codes - Customary laws Loan origination and servicing 3. Quality of income Credit scoring and credit bureaus

26 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 26 2. LIQUIDITY RISK IS THE MOST IMMEDIATE OPERATIONAL RISK Mortgage loans create significant liquidity risks for lenders Depositors in emerging economies generally value liquidity--meaning the ability to convert deposits rapidly to cash. Their preferences reflect the high risks associated with the macro economy, individual banks, and the consumer’s individual needs for funds. Banks must anticipate large and unexpected deposit outflows, which require assets that can be rapidly sold to finance these deposit outflows. Government securities are good assets for this purpose, since they can trade in active and liquid markets and their prices are accurately determined. The development of government debt markets is an important externality to housing finance, and to the banking sector more generally. Business loans are more difficult to sell, but their short-term maturities make them essentially self-liquidating. Mortgages do not have short-term maturities and they do not easily trade in secondary markets because buyers find it costly to verify the credit quality of each mortgage offered for sale. In the start-up phase of mortgage lending deposit-taking institutions can rely on their “core deposits”, but a limit on their portfolio allocation to mortgage lending is soon reached. Various market solutions exists, as will be discussed during the conference.

27 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 27 3. INTEREST RATE RISK is potentially very high, and typically exceeds default risk Housing finance lenders are frequently “short funded”, meaning that the maturity (or duration) of their mortgage assets exceeds the maturity of their funding sources (such as bank deposits). Mortgage borrowers generally wish to match their durable housing assets with long-term mortgage loans. Depositors prefer the liquidity of short-term investments. Short funding creates an interest rate risk for the lenders since an increase in market interest rates raises the cost of deposits without immediately raising the return on the mortgage assets. In emerging economies, capital market instruments are unlikely to be available to hedge the interest rate risk, so floating-rate mortgages will be the norm. This means that borrowers face the interest rate risk, which increases their likelihood of loan default. - Adjustable mortgage instruments (AMIs) tend to convert interest rate risk into credit risk. - Nominal and real interest rates (nominal interest rates adjusted for inflation) can be high and volatile, which further raises credit risk on AMIs.

28 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 28 4. PREPAYMENT RISK is a concern for investors in mortgage-related securities Pre-payment charges 10-year lock (German Pfandbrief) Callable bonds Prepayment risks affect the all-in-cost of mortgage finance. They are addressed through financial instrument designs. They affect the performance of a mortgage industry, but do not play a strategic role in shaping the industry’s organization and structure Consumer protection laws regulating or prohibiting prepayments penalties can have a significant negative impact on the all-in cost of mortgage finance. Then what is the proper horizontal equity across borrowers?

29 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 29 The “all-in” cost of funding a mortgage loan is a measure of total system efficiency Private funding costs Public costs 1.Cost of mortgage functions -Origination -Holding -Servicing 2.Government costs: - Explicit (on budget) - Implicit (tax expenditures) - contingent cost of guarantees - Quasi-subsidies from state banks 3.Administration of the mortgage system The “all-in” cost can be seen as the opportunity cost of supplying mortgage finance for a given mortgage industry structure. The goal of public policies is to support the emergence of market instruments and institutions that will lower one or more components of the all-in cost of mortgage funding.

30 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 30 Agenda 1. World trends are now producing a massive latent demand for housing finance 2. Today, housing finance systems in emerging economies are often very small 3. Strategies to develop mortgage finance systems are an integral part of overall financial development 4. The three core functions of mortgage finance systems are universal. System expansion depends on lowering the costs of these core functions. 5. There is no universally applicable model of a mortgage finance system. Each national system results form macroeconomic conditions, banking regulations, the structure of the banking system, taxation, subsidy programs and the organization of housing markets. These factors shape the path between bank- based and capital-market based mortgage loan delivery channels.

31 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 31 Financial markets typically evolve from BANKING-BASED to CAPITAL MARKET-BASED SYSTEMS Source: King and Levine, 1997

32 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 32 The Pre-1980s, directed-credit environments favored special housing finance circuits “Special circuits” policies prevailed under the Post WW-II directed credit environment. WHY? The high all-in cost of mortgage lending by depository institutions made this line of business unattractive to commercial banks, so governments encouraged specialized lenders through a combination of restrictions and privileges: -The historical origins of mortgage lending were local, mutual institutions emerging in developing financial systems: British terminating building societies, permanent building societies, US Savings & Loans, German Bausparkassen, Crédit différé, etc… - special tax benefits - lower capital requirements - can follow a short-funding strategy -must maintain high percentage of loan portfolio in residential mortgage loans restrictions privileges problems Non-diversified loan portfolios + short-funding strategy + avoidance of competition + low-level of innovation = fragility under macroeconomic volatility The new financial environment has triggered many charter conversions

33 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 33 Today, DEPOSITORY “PORTFOLIO LENDERS” remain the foundation Advantages Disadvantages Retail deposits: lowest rate in the system Vertical integration of all mortgage functions: no cost of transferring mortgages Informational advantages in credit evaluation for cross- lending with lowered information asymmetry Financial costs of hedging interest risks under short- funding Regulatory costs (capital ratios, liquidities, reserves) and supervisory standards) Deposit insurance ? lack of economies of scale in origination and servicing (Domestic impact of the IT revolution in information Processing and retrieving) Private commercial banks in emerging economies are natural starting points to develop the housing finance system with their low-cost deposits, expertise in lending, access to retail customers. Access to capital markets permits both these retail banks and finance companies to expand their mortgage finance lines of business.

34 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 34 CAPITAL-MARKET BASED mortgage finance is a major structural change for the better Major opportunities exist with the rise of institutional investors in emerging economies: - pension reforms - insurance reforms - securities market reforms - development of mutual funds The growth of these potential mortgage-debt holders is usually quite significant But there are problems to solve with the sale of existing residential mortgages: - information asymmetry on credit risk - unseasoned mortgages and default several years later - mortgage loans are small relative to investor portfolio scale so that they cannot be individually evaluated The three main ways to address the information asymmetry problem: - development of solid underwriting standards - reputation of the retail level mortgage originator - credit guarantees Different solutions exist based on: banking regulation, taxation + finance industry legacies + role of government + private sector innovations Evolution of the all-in cost of mortgage finance (including government guarantees and other support policies)

35 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 35 A great variety of mortgage market processes can be observed around the world Depository institution originates loans Hold in portfolio Sell loans Non-Depository institution originates loans Investor Secondary market institution or conduit Sell whole loans To investor Pool loans into Mortgage backed securities Issue mortgage bonds backed by loans Sell MBS To investors Sell bonds to investors EXPANDING INVESTOR BASE: Public pension funds Private pension funds Life insurance companies Mutual funds Commercial banks Specialized lenders Issue mortgage bonds VARIETY OF LOAN ORIGINATORS: A remarkable variety of loan originators can be observed today reflecting the diversity of national systems with significantly different all- in costs and degrees of overall efficiency

36 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 36 The EU-15 illustrates well the diversity of loan originators and of system efficiency

37 © Bertrand RENAUD. World Bank Seminar. 10 th February 2003 Overview of housing finance issues in emerging markets 37 Fixed- income Securities Markets Major focus on pension and insurance reforms Retail Banking: Consumer Finance + Cross- Lending Macro- economic demand management - New subsidy designs - Market-focused regulations - Restructured state institutions New housing finance policies need to be consistent with other financial reforms


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