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Peak Oil What it is What it means The challenge for the church.

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Presentation on theme: "Peak Oil What it is What it means The challenge for the church."— Presentation transcript:

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2 Peak Oil What it is What it means The challenge for the church

3 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Pharaoh’s dream Seven fat barrels of oil Seven thin barrels of oil And the thin consumes the fat Can we appoint a Joseph? –Or is it all too late?

4 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Energy 1 st law of thermodynamics – energy can’t be created 2 nd law of thermodynamics – energy degrades (entropy) Organised life is the delay of entropy The ability to do work

5 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Eiffel tower Energy in car fuel tank…. Could lift 50 cars to the top of the Eiffel tower

6 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Slave army Average European has c.100 ‘slaves’ Not an accident when slavery was abolished

7 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Oil as a source of energy Oil is dense and easy to handle Excellent form of energy – the best that we know of At the moment –Oil provides 43% of total energy –95% of transportation energy

8 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Fossil fuel Deposits of ancient sunlight A non- renewable inheritance

9 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil EROEI Energy Return on Energy Invested Oil started at 100:1 – moved to 30:1 Coal 80:1 – 15:1

10 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil It’s all about flow Imagine a tap –Open tap wider, the flow increases –Gravity draws down reserve –Pressure drops – flow decreases

11 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil The Hubbert curve Peaking is a geological fact –54 out of top 65 producers have peaked And the tap is not at the bottom of the barrel

12 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil North Sea (UK) North Sea decline c. 7.5% per annum

13 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil United States (48)

14 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Oil discovery and extraction

15 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Supply and Demand

16 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Net Export Capacity Small number of exporting nations Domestic demand increasing ‘Free’ oil will shrink more rapidly than overall global supply EG Mexico

17 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Mexico Supplies 8% of US imports #4 producer world wide Cantarell –Eighth largest field in world –10% decline in first six months of this year

18 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Supply and Demand In 2006 world supply trending down 3% Not necessarily physical peak But first decline preceded by rising prices

19 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Supply and demand Good news: we will never run out of oil Bad news: it will become so expensive we won’t be able to afford it At $65 a barrel it is cheaper than bottled water… And it will get chaotic

20 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil

21 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil When is the peak? Two parts: when is the peak/plateau? –2008? 2015? 2004?

22 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil How steep is the descent? 2% manageable 5% difficult 8%+ catastrophic Technology is the enemy here –Most advanced fields shrink fastest –North Sea decline c. 7.5% per annum –Yibal 250k bd 1998; 88kbd 2005

23 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil How steep is the descent?

24 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil A time of abundant and easy energy Oil is cheaper than bottled water All alternatives are worse in some respect Either: invent a new energy source – today would not be too soon Or: energy is going to become very expensive

25 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Some good news Wind is significantly positive (c 20:1) So is solar (c 4:1) So are tidal, wave, HEP… And possibly bio-diesel (Brazil = 9:1)

26 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil But not… Coal sands c. 1.2:1 –‘only process that takes gold and turns it into lead’ Nuclear –May have short term role The only long term answers are renewables Existing technology can – in principle – provide sufficient energy for many of our domestic needs (home heating etc) BUT NOT TRANSPORT

27 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Hirsch report "The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation more than a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and long- lasting. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal and coal to oil) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and discontinuous.“

28 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil The Great Dislocation Hirsch report estimates 20 years for US IF ‘man on the moon’ project and settled will ie $1 TRILLION p.a. FOR 20 YEARS IF before peak It hasn’t happened We are facing a ‘great dislocation’

29 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil It’s about liquid fuel 90% of transportation powered by oil 95% of oil used for transport Huge investment in existing fleet Switching to alternative fuels is problematic to say the least “Not primarily an energy crisis, but a liquid fuels crisis”

30 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil It will become a choice between growing grain to feed the world, and growing grain to drive our cars

31 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Some figures Air freight: MJ/tonne-km –Short-haul air: 25 to 40 Light trucks: Heavy trucks: Diesel train: –Electric train is better (and renewable) Container ship: 0.15 – 0.2 Organic farming uses 50% of energy for same amount of food

32 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil And by the way "Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.“ –US Army Corps of Engineers, Report on Peak Oil, 2005 “I have had discussions with leaders in China, with advisers to the president, about peak oil and they said they know about peak oil and they will act accordingly." (ASPO)

33 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil And by the way 2 Transport will become very expensive –Commuting will be communal (electric rail) or non- existent (car pools to begin with) Food will become very expensive –Unless we set up local co-operatives –Where will the food come from? Heating will become very expensive –Gas peak is also imminent –Much more house sharing Electricity will become very expensive –Labour saving devices?

34 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Following that through… Lots of businesses will fail –Airlines first (4/6 US already) –Tourism (caravans) Unemployment will rise initially –Then back to the land Stockmarkets will contract severely –Pensions? Stipends? Housing market? Inflation? Deflation? Re-run of the 1930’s –If we’re lucky

35 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil And by the way 3

36 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil So we’re back to 1900? That’s not so bad! Lots of permanent assets from oil BUT In 1900 the world population was 1.9bn In 2006 the world population is about 6.6bn

37 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Die-off

38 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Freedom from fossil fuels Get out of debt Get in shape Start a garden Learn to live more simply Life post PO will be very good… …for those who get there

39 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Choices Try to preserve the status quo? Last Man Standing? What is worth dying for? What is worth killing for? What is worth living for?

40 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Secular Options Descent of the SEP field Something will turn up –(who/what are you putting your faith in?) I’m alright Jack Suicide is painless

41 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil The Prophetic Imagination Walter Brueggemann The Royal Consciousness –Affluence, oppression, immanence Naming the powers Oil based consumerism is our Moloch God is bringing the Western way of life to an end

42 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil “The task of prophetic ministry is to nurture, nourish and evoke a consciousness and perception alternative to the consciousness and perception of the dominant culture”.

43 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil What the church is called to identify the Royal Consciousness; articulate the pain of the marginalised and oppressed who have no present voice or witness; challenge the claims to power made on behalf of the Royal Consciousness, with a view to demonstrating their emptiness; labour with confident expectation towards the dismantling of the present structures;

44 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil What the church is called to develop new communities which break away from obeisance to the Royal Consciousness, and which offer the opportunity of free life in the image of the free God; articulate a vision of hope, a promised land, on the other side of Peak Oil, which will sustain us through the transition period in the wilderness; and trust in God.

45 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil A Jeremiah for today Matthew Simmons Chairman and CEO of Simmons International (major investment bank) Faculty of Harvard Business School Adviser to George W Bush

46 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Twilight in the Desert Saudi oil reserves fraudulent

47 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Opec reserves

48 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Twilight in the Desert Saudi oil reserves fraudulent Production is close to – or AT – ‘peak’ –1990 c 10,000 bpd per well –1998 c 5140 –2005 c 3500 ‘Once Saudi peaks – the world peaks’ Saudis now admit 8% decline in existing fields

49 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil In 2006… Decline is running at 3% If maintained, means c.50mbd in 2015

50 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Context

51 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Context 2

52 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil

53 October 2006Let us be Human 2 Peak Oil Copyrights Graphs and data from DTI, Stuart Staniford & The Oil Drum, and Colin Campbell at ASPO Used under terms of creative commons license


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