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Loss Avoidance Analysis Carly A. Foster, CFM - ARCADIS Joy Duperault, CFM – State of Florida Floodplain Manager 2012 ASFPM Conference May 20 – 25 San Antonio,

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Presentation on theme: "Loss Avoidance Analysis Carly A. Foster, CFM - ARCADIS Joy Duperault, CFM – State of Florida Floodplain Manager 2012 ASFPM Conference May 20 – 25 San Antonio,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Loss Avoidance Analysis Carly A. Foster, CFM - ARCADIS Joy Duperault, CFM – State of Florida Floodplain Manager 2012 ASFPM Conference May 20 – 25 San Antonio, Texas

2 The New Normal Clamor for Resources Resource Availability

3 Emergency Management Time Horizon Preparedness Response Recovery Mitigation / Resiliency Sustainability Where on this spectrum does public sentiment and the will to make political expenditures lie?

4 Citizen Competence and Government Accountability: Voter Responses to Natural Disaster Relief and Preparedness Spending 2009 “Using data on natural disasters, government spending, and election returns, we show that voters reward the incumbent … for delivering disaster relief spending but not for investing in disaster preparedness (and mitigation) spending. These inconsistencies distort the incentives of public officials, leading the government to underinvest in disaster preparedness (and mitigation), thereby causing substantial public welfare losses.”

5 Ignoring the Right Side of the Time Horizon Day1306090120 WTP 1 Offline Limited Capacity WTP 2 Sandbags Intake Breach Mostly met demand

6 “How do we encourage more action to prevent this from happening?” So, to paraphrase a question posed on a LinkedIn message board…

7 When the potential costs of inaction are clear AND Post-disaster BUT, there is also “Some… evidence that governments may be able to take action to make preparedness salient to voters in a more permanent fashion.” From the Same Report: There is a Surge in Support for Mitigation…

8 What is loss avoidance? E XPECTED D AMAGE WITHOUT M ITIGATION – D AMAGE E XPERIENCED WITH M ITIGATION – C OST OF M ITIGATION L OSS A VOIDANCE

9 Benefits = (Hypothetical) Avoided Damage + Avoided Costs + Avoided Loss of Service

10 Flood Mitigation is important AND Money spent on flood mitigation is money well spent At a time when the message may be most likely to come across loud and clear Loss Avoidance Analysis Results Can Show…

11 Loss Avoidance Assessment as Part of a System Communicating the Value of Mitigation

12 REQUIREMENT §201.5(B)(2)(IV) The State must “document the system and strategy by which the State will conduct an assessment of the completed mitigation actions and include a record of the effectiveness (actual cost avoidance) of each mitigation action.”

13 Enhanced status has meant millions in extra funding for the State of Florida.

14 Tropical Storm Fay North Florida Flood Events Where We’ve Been…

15 Record-keeping was inadequate – Difficult to find sites in damage swath – Many project files already archived – Original local project managers often gone – Owners may be new – Best available data often lacking AND The methodology was primitive What We Discovered… Record-keeping was inadequate – Difficult to find sites in damage swath – Many project files already archived – Original local project managers often gone – Owners may be new – Best available data often lacking AND The methodology was primitive

16 POST DISASTER LOSS AVOIDANCE ASSESSMENT FOR BUILDING MODIFICATION PROJECTS Florida’s Method

17 Limited project utility High data demands Engineers and higher levels of technical expertise Presumably high costs A Review of National Studies Revealed… Limited project utility High data demands Engineers and higher levels of technical expertise Presumably high costs

18 Simplification Automation Replication Defensibility Ease of Implementation Long-term Tracking of Results Florida’s Objectives

19 Detailed Literature Review Data Requirement Analysis Process Streamlining Automation Engineer QAQC How We Pursued Them…

20 Project Record Keeping and Data Needs Event Data Collection and Processing Loss Avoidance Calculator Report Development Tools Technical Details Where We’re At…

21 The Building Modifications Calculator

22 Staff Input Other costs/ losses (annual maintenance, lost tax revenue, etc.) not shown here.

23 The Value of Electronic Project Data

24 Robust Vs. Limited Data Because older project files can exist in varying levels of completeness… Some fields are not required, but add to the robustness of the calculations Data can be gathered in a variety of ways Simply keep track of where data was gathered from For example: – Elevation data? – Building data? – Project Cost? – Yearly or other costs?

25 FEMA’s Preferred Flood Elevation Sources

26 March 28, 2012Carly Cermak FFMA Losses avoided can be calculated for one event or multiple events (life of structure)

27 Nominal – Current to year Real – normalized to today’s dollars (This is done in three different ways in the calculator) Nominal vs. Real Dollars

28 Nominal Losses Avoided

29 Nominal Expected and Actual Losses

30 March 28, 2012Carly Cermak FFMA

31 A building damage of 50 percent or more would result in demolition (default value specified in FEMA’s BCA Riverine Flood-Full Data Module). Like others, our depth damage tables don’t take velocity or sediment deposits into consideration. This translates to conservative measurements. Only financial costs are considered. Assumptions A building damage of 50 percent or more would result in demolition (default value specified in FEMA’s BCA Riverine Flood-Full Data Module). Like others, our depth damage tables don’t take velocity or sediment deposits into consideration. This translates to conservative measurements. Only financial costs are considered.

32 Benefits of Florida’s Method Communicates value Facilitates communication of urgency Due to automation and limited need for expertise, does not add significantly to the cost of mitigation Works into current PDA process Simple and comprehensive Can help identify mitigation best practices and, hence, facilitate future project selection Captures longitudinal benefits and can provide the net present value of a project

33 Simplified Automated Replicable Defensible Long-term Tracking of Results Objectives Accomplished

34 Questions?

35 Joy Duperault - FDEM Joy.Duperault@em.myflorida.com Carly Foster – Technical Questions Carly.Foster@arcadis-us.com 850-228-6979 Contacts

36 Thank you!!


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