Presentation on theme: "Exit Polling in Mississippi Republican Senate Primary Norman Analytics and Research June 30, 2014."— Presentation transcript:
Exit Polling in Mississippi Republican Senate Primary Norman Analytics and Research June 30, 2014
Key Findings McDaniel did well in suburban Memphis and but fell behind on the Gulf Coast. Voters under 35, those without a college degree and those making $25,000- $99,999 were more likely to vote for McDaniel. In the regions tested, 20% of June 24 th voters did not participate in the June 3 rd primary. McDaniel won 56% of these voters – on par with his overall vote total in the regions surveyed. In total, roughly one-quarter of voters recall hearing a radio ad with a message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare. Voters said the radio ad had as much impact as other ads seen and heard during the campaign. Despite what they say about impact, voters who heard the message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare (through any channel) were significantly more likely to vote for McDaniel. Among those who heard the NON PAC Ad and said it had an impact, 75% voted for McDaniel. The idea that Congress exempted itself from the unpopular Obamacare law is believable to voters and does make an impact on the willingness to vote for an incumbent.
Election Results Results are weighted to match the final tally in each county. McDaniel did well in suburban Memphis and but fell behind on the Gulf Coast.
Election Results Voters with less than a college degree were more likely to favor McDaniel.
Election Results McDaniel had strong support from his Tea Party base as well as middle and upper-middle class voters. The wealthiest voters were more likely to favor Cochran.
Voting in June 3 Election One-in-five voters in Suburban Memphis and the Gulf Coast did not participate in the original primary.
Election Results There was limited voter switchover between primaries. Voters who did not participate in the June 3 rd primary voted similarly to the total number of voters in the regions.
Election Results – Changes from June 3 to June 24 Most voters cast the same ballot they did on June 3.
Profile of June 3 Non-Voters Among those who Did Not Vote 6/3, Voted McDaniel 6/24 Among those who Did Not Vote 6/3, Voted Cochran 6/24 Male48%44% Female52%56% 18-3415%11% 35-5445%50% 55+40% White91%86% Black6%11% HS of Less25%7% Some College40%26% College Grad35%66% Under $25K13%7% $25-$50K26%22% $50-$100K36%34% $100K+25%36% Support Tea Party62%15% Oppose Tea Party11%51% Heard NON PAC Ad16%20% McDaniel won new voters who support the Tea Party and those without college degrees while Cochran courted higher income, higher educated voters as well as those who oppose the Tea Party.
Profile of June 3 Non-Voters June 3 Non-Voters Support Tea Party41%Cochran 16%/McDaniel 84% Neutral to Tea Party31%Cochran 50%/McDaniel 50% Oppose Tea Party28%Cochran 80%/McDaniel 20% June 3 Non-Voters Support Tea Party41%25% heard NON PAC Ad Neutral to Tea Party31%17% heard NON PAC Ad Oppose Tea Party28%10% heard NON PAC Ad In the regions surveyed, June 3 rd non-voters were more likely to be supportive of the Tea Party and McDaniel won this group easily. New voters who supported the Tea Party were more likely to have heard the NON PAC Ad showing the ad was well targeted to McDaniel’s base.
Radio Advertising TotalSuburban Memphis Gulf Coast Heard Now or Never PAC Radio Advertising 27%22%32% Heard NON PAC Radio Ad Saw TV AdReceived Mail A Great Deal of Impact13%14% Some Impact22%23%24% Just a Little Impact16%15% No Impact48%47%45% In total, roughly one-quarter of voters recall hearing a radio ad with a message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare. Voters said the radio ad had as much impact as other advertising mediums.
Profile of Voters – Radio Ad Profile of Voters Who Heard NON PAC Radio Ad Profile of Voters Who Heard NON PAC Radio Ad and Said Advertising Had Impact Male55%49% Female45%51% 18-3411%15% 35-5438%34% 55+52%51% White96% Black2%3% HS of Less9%11% Some College28%32% College Grad 63% 57% Under $25K5%6% $25-$50K11%12% $50-$100K43%39% $100K+ 41% 44% Support Tea Party 59% 71% Oppose Tea Party 17% 11% Significantly higher than the total sample Significantly lower than the total sample Profile of Voters Who Heard NON PAC Radio Ad Profile of Voters Who Heard NON PAC Radio Ad and Said Advertising Had Impact Voted Cochran37% 25% Voted McDaniel63% 75% Voted Cochran 6/3 33% 24% Voted McDaniel 6/3 52% 64% Voted Other 6/32%1% Did Not Vote 6/3 13% 11% While 57% of voters in the tested regions voted for McDaniel, 63% of those who heard the NON PAC Ad voted for him and 75% of those who heard the ad and said it had impact supported McDaniel. Of those who heard the NON PAC Ad, 59% support the Tea Party compared to 47% among all voters. This indicates the ad was well targeted to turn out a segment of voters likely to support McDaniel.
Obamacare Exemption Impact Significantly higher than the total sample Significantly lower than the total sample TotalHeard Obamacare Exemption Message (any medium) Advertising had impact36%37% Likely Congress is hiding Obamacare Exemption 74%77% Less likely to vote for incumbent if Obamacare Exemption is true 69%75% Believe Congress and staff should pay for own insurance 51%49% Voted McDaniel57% 63% Voters who heard the message about Cochran and the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare were significantly more likely to vote for McDaniel.
Obamacare Exemption TotalBelieve Congressional Exemption Do Not Believe Congressional Exemption Less likely to vote for Incumbent72%77%56% Makes no difference16%11%30% More likely to vote for incumbent4% Note sure8% 11% TotalVoted McDanielVoted Cochran Believe Congressional Exemption74%82%62% Do Not Believe Congressional Exemption26%18%38% The idea that Congress exempted itself from the unpopular Obamacare law is believable to voters and does make an impact on the willingness to vote for an incumbent.
Obamacare Exemption Voters are split on whether or not Congress and their staff should get employer based healthcare. However, other survey data show this changes if Congress appears to have a separate set of rules.
Methodology In-person interviewers were positioned at 18 polling places in Mississippi on June 24, 2014 for the Republican Senate Nomination Runoff Election. In total 1,127 interviews were conducted. 9 in Suburban Memphis (576 interviews) 9 on the Southern Gulf Coast (551 interviews) Polling places were selected through a random stratified sample based on turnout in the June 3 rd Republican Primary. Polling places where fewer than 100 people voted on June 3 rd were excluded for operational/feasibility issues. Interviewers approached every third person that left the precinct and invited them to participate in a survey. This was done to ensure a random sample. If voters agreed to participate, they were handed a double sided survey which was self-administered and returned to a box. The interviewer did not review the completed surveys to ensure anonymity. Final survey data were weighted to match the actual election outcome in each county. Figures in this report reflect weighted data. When data from the state becomes available, this can be updated to match precinct level actual returns.
Locations – Suburban Memphis Precinct/CountyJune 3 Ballots Cast June 24 Ballot Cast* Exit Interviews Collected** Hernando East/DeSoto1,232 84 Olive Branch South/DeSoto589 114*** Southaven North/DeSoto509 85 Senatobia 1/Tate500 75 Nesbit West/DeSoto291 80*** Byhalia/Marshall251 60*** Looxahoma/Tate160 23 Potts Camp/Marshall143 42 Floyd/Benton112 13 *To be updated when Secretary of State certifies final results **Interviewers approached every 3 rd person leaving the polling place as a method of randomization ***Locations where polling place officials and watchers prevented interviews for part of the day
Locations – Southern Gulf Coast Precinct/CountyJune 3 Ballots Cast June 24 Ballot Cast* Exit Interviews Collected** OS Civic/Jackson2,219 203 Diamondhead East/Hancock1,541 18*** Biloxi 11/Harrison1,082 174 Fontainebleau/Jackson891 51 Eastlawn/Jackson494 32 Waveland West/Hancock363 12 White Plains/Harrison250 57 Outside Long Beach/Harrison171 2*** City Hall/Hancock102 2*** *To be updated when Secretary of State certifies final results **Interviewers approached every 3 rd person leaving the polling place as a method of randomization ***Locations where polling place officials and watchers prevented interviews for most of the day
Demographics of Voters TotalJune 3 Voters Male49%50% Female51%50% 18-3410%9% 35-5436%33% 55+54%58% White93%94% Black5%4% HS of Less18% Some College33% College Grad49% Under $25K10% $25-$50K18%16% $50-$100K42%43% $100K+30%31% Support Tea Party47%48% Oppose Tea Party24%23%