Presentation on theme: "Voter preferences: - entirely policy driven or controlled by ideology? A study of the swing voter model."— Presentation transcript:
Voter preferences: - entirely policy driven or controlled by ideology? A study of the swing voter model
Purpose In some way to explain the rise of the right- wing parties See if the Swing voter model can be applied to different nations Examine if a certain policy is affected by voter preferences (Health)
Theory Swing-voter model Dixit & Londregan; Scott Gelbach and Cox (core supporters) Core supporter model: Political parties design policies to mobilize core supporters to the ballot box. Swing voter model: Political parties adjust policies to attract voters who can be persuaded to shift from political party.
Data WVS – E033 (self positioning ; left/right)- E036 (private vs state ownership)-E178(close to a particular party), limited in years. CSES- B3028(Do you think of yourself as close to a party? OECD Health data (Public health-spending in percent of total health-spending) Gives us an idea of how large the private health sector is
Method A cross section analysis (aggregated data) See if there is any correlation between health- spending and the attitudes of the different data surveys See if health spending is close to the preferences of voters who are not close to a political party
Hypothesis H0: The size of private health care is controlled by the preferences of unsure voters Ha: The size of private health care is controlled by the different parties’ ideological standpoint
Challenges Justify for the connection between health- spending and voter preferences Model? General statistical issues Cross sectional design disadvantages: – Increased chance of error – Difficult to rule out rival hypothesis – Cannot establish cause and effect