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Chapter 10 Elections and Campaigns

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1 Chapter 10 Elections and Campaigns

How do American elections determine the kind of people who govern us? What matters most in deciding who wins presidential and congressional elections? TO WHAT ENDS? Do elections make a real difference in what laws get passed? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

3 Warm-up Copyright © 2011 Cengage

4 Discussion “To be a politician you must be rich. I am not rich, therefore I can’t be a politician” Do you agree/disagree with this statement and why? “Do you think negative or positive ads are most effective in politics?” Explain Copyright © 2011 Cengage

5 Campaigns, Then and Now Campaign tasks performed by
Media consultants=create advertisements/buy airtime tv Direct mail firms=design/produce mailings for candidates Polling firms=survey voters on attitudes toward candidates Political technology firms=website design, online advertising, online fundraising, etc. Better or Worse? Here and Abroad Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo Hillary Clinton running for president in 2008, p. 224 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

6 Textbook page 225 Questions:
1. Identify and discuss trends you notice in each graph 2. How does the amount of money needed to run for president help/hurt our democracy? 10.1: Predict how the pie chart may change in upcoming elections? Why would they change? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

7 Replace with jpeg, p. 225 Source: Federal Election Commission, 2008 election summary reports, May 2009. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

8 Source: Adapted from Federal Election Commission, summary reports, January 2009 and May Dollar figures rounded. Inflation adjustment keyed to consumer price index 1976–2008, 3.74 (i.e., assumes that what cost $1.00 in 1976 cost $3.74 in 2008). Copyright © 2011 Cengage

9 Figure 10.1 Presidential Campaigns, Spending on Media, 2009
Source: Federal Election Commission, summary reports, May Figures rounded. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

10 Presidential versus Congressional Campaigns
Running for President Money Organization Strategy and themes Getting elected to Congress Winning the primary Staying in office Tomas Muscionico/Contact Press Images Political campaigns are hard work, even when you get to fly on the vice president’s airplane. p. 229 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

11 Pres. Money/time A lot of time, years
Need to raise a lot of money, a single individual can only give a candidate $2,000 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

12 Pres. organization Raising/accounting for money requires staff of fund-raisers, lawyers, accountants, press secretary, advisors, pollsters, telephone calls, etc. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

13 Strategy and Themes Incumbent defends record
Challenger attacks record of incumbent Tone=positive/negative Theme=trust Target=who will likely change their vote Copyright © 2011 Cengage

14 Negative Ads
Do you think they are effective? Do you agree or disagree with the news source and why? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

15 Obama and Romney ads
Identify and describe strong political messages What made them strong/Effective? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

16 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage

17 Getting elected to Congress
Winning the primary=serve unlimited term/get your name on the ballot Sophomore surge=8-10% more votes second term House of Reps 90% incumbent wins! Copyright © 2011 Cengage

18 Staying in office in Congress
Need to be closely tied to local concerns Better chance to win, serve on committees that benefit your community Copyright © 2011 Cengage

19 Primary versus General Campaigns
Two kinds of campaign issues Position=rival candidates have opposing views on a question that also divides the voters Valence=voters aren’t split on the issue, instead question whether a candidate fully supports the public’s view on a matter ; ex. Strong economy/low crime Television, Debates and Direct Mail Copyright © 2011 Cengage

20 Television, Debates, Direct Mail
More turning to broadcasting Spots=short TV ads Visual=campaign activity appears on a news cast (cost little/may have greater credibility) Ex. Talk to elderly at nursing home (do it before 3 to get on 6 oclock news Debates=free but can be costly if you make a slip Stock speeches=has many applause lines/safe speech Direct mail=aimed at certain groups (ex. College kids)/less likely to offend Copyright © 2011 Cengage

21 p. 234 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

22 Politically Speaking: Clothespin Vote
The vote cast by a person who does not like either candidate and so votes for the less objectionable of the two, putting a clothespin over his or her nose to keep out the unpleasant stench. p. 235 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

23 In the 1888 presidential campaign, supporters of Benjamin Harrison rolled a huge ball covered with campaign slogans across the country. The gimmick, first used in 1840, gave rise to the phrase “keep the ball rolling.” p. 239 Library of Congress Alaska Governor Sarah Palin debates Senator Joe Biden during the 2008 campaign. p. 239 Rick Wiking, Pool, File/AP Photo Copyright © 2011 Cengage

24 Where does the Money come from?
The Sources of Campaign Money=Pres=private donors, federal gov./ Congress=private donors. Gets no fed. funds Federal gov. will match all money raised from ind. Donors no larger than $250. Campaign Finance Rules=Watergate scandal 1972 Individuals $1,000, PACs $5,000 ($15,000 total in a year) Problems with this? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

25 DQ What are the advantages of a Presidential candidate taking matching funds from the Government? What are the disadvantages? Would you advise your candidate to take the money? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

26 Campaign Finance Rules
Campaign Finance Rules=After Nixon/Watergate scandal 1972 changed this to: Individuals $1,000, PACs (must have at least 50 members/give to 5 fed. Candidates) give no more than $5,000 to a single candidate ($15,000 total in a year) Problems with this? 4000 PACs today Copyright © 2011 Cengage

27 Money A Second Campaign Finance Law McCain-Feingold law=“Banned soft money” $2,000 individual donation, PACs restricted on amount of money they can spend New Sources of Money= 527 organizations Money and Winning=economy plays major factor/most get same amount of money Copyright © 2011 Cengage

28 Candidates first made phonographic recordings of their speeches in Warren G. Harding is shown here recording a speech during the 1920 campaign, p. 240 Bettmann/CORBIS John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon debate during the 1960 presidential campaign, p. 240 Paul Schutzer/ Time Life Pictures/ Getty Images Copyright © 2011 Cengage

29 p. 241 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

30 Figure Growth of PACs 1979–2009 Source: Federal Election Commission, March 9, 2009 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

31 Source: The New York Times, November 14, 2008.
Copyright © 2011 Cengage

32 Source: Federal Election Commission, March 2, 2009.
Replace with jpeg, p. 251 Source: Federal Election Commission, March 2, 2009. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

33 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

34 Getting elected to Congress
Senator serves 6 yr terms Hof R serves 2 yr terms (90% re-election rate since 1962) Constitution says nothing about districts (left up to states) Original house had 65 members/Article I section 2 says it is up to Congress to decide? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

35 How to draw district boundaries?
How the lines are drawn can effect the outcomes of elections Malapportionment=having districts of very unequal size (why is this bad) Gerrymandering=drawing a district boundary in bizarre or unusual shapes to allow a certain political party to win Copyright © 2011 Cengage

36 Congress decisions 1911=435 members of the House
Every 10 years they appoint states seats based on population Copyright © 2011 Cengage

37 Citizens United SuperPACS
Citizens United Copyright © 2011 Cengage

38 Q1 How does federal law restrict fund-raising for presidential campaigns? I. Individual contributions are limited to $2,000 II. PAC contributions are limited to $5,000 III. Federal matching funds are available to candidates who raise $5,000, in individual contributions of $250 or less, in twenty states. IV. Candidates are limited to $2,000 in spending their own personal funds A. I and II B. I, II, and III C. I, II, and IV D. I, III, and IV E. I and IV Copyright © 2011 Cengage

39 A1 B. there is a limit on spending by individuals of $2,000, and by PACS of $5,000. These amounts are raised periodically to adjust for inflation. To qualify for matching funds, candidates must raise at least $5,000 in $250 contributions in twenty states. However, there is no limit on the amount a candidate may spend on his or her own campaign Copyright © 2011 Cengage

40 Q2 Which of the following is the best example of gerrymandering?
A. drawing a congressional district boundary down a narrow strip of highway no wider than six blocks B. drawing boundaries so that districts are of very unequal size C. drawing boundaries to allow fair and equal representation of voters D. creating a new district to reapportion seats following a census E. eliminating an existing district to reapportion seats following a census Copyright © 2011 Cengage

41 A2 A. Gerrymandering means drawing a district boundary in some bizarre or unusual shape to make it easy for the candidate of one party to win an election Copyright © 2011 Cengage

42 Q3 Which of the following groups would be most likely to receive direct mail from a conservative candidate? A. college students and auto workers B. fundamentalist Christians and small business owners C. teachers and small business owners D. bankers and native americans E. african americans and jews Copyright © 2011 Cengage

43 A3 B. Direct mail is usually sent to groups already sympathetic to the candidate. The groups most likely to sympathize with a conservative candidate are fundamentalist Christians and business owners, who tend to vote Republican Copyright © 2011 Cengage

44 Q4 Which of the following best describes those who vote in primary elections? A. voters from both parties who tend to be moderate in their beliefs B. Democrats who tend to be more conservative in their beliefs C. Republicans who tend to be more liberal in their beliefs D. voters in both parties who tend to be more active in party politics E. those who vote in primaries suffer from voter fatigue and are less likely to vote in the general election Copyright © 2011 Cengage

45 A4 D. Voters in primaries tend to be party activists
Copyright © 2011 Cengage

46 Q5 All of the following are part of the Bipartisan Campaign Finance Reform Act of 2002 EXCEPT A. “soft money” contributions to national political parties from corporations were banned B. money given to national parties must be in the form of individual donations and PACs C. independent organizations cannot use their own money in ads that refer to a clearly identified federal candidate during the sixty days before an election D. individuals can no longer spend unlimited amounts of their own money on their campaigns E. “soft money” contributions to national political parties from unions were banned Copyright © 2011 Cengage

47 A5 D. the campaign finance reform law banned soft money contributions from unions and corporations. Independent organizations must stop advertising for a particular candidate in the 60 days before the election. Candidates are limited to accepting “hard money” from individuals and PACs Copyright © 2011 Cengage

48 Who decides the election?
1. Party identification 2. Issues=Economy 3. Prospective voting=“forward looking”, look at issues of the day/cast ballot for best person to solve it 4. retrospective voting=vote for the party who controls the white house if they like what happened in the last 4 years Copyright © 2011 Cengage

49 Importance of the Campaign
1. reawaken party loyalties of voters 2. give voters a chance to watch how candidates handle pressure 3. allows voters an opportunity to judge the character and core values of the candidates Copyright © 2011 Cengage

50 Warm-up AP warm-up book Page 134-139 Ch. 7 elections/campaigns
#1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14 Copyright © 2011 Cengage

51 Answers 1=e 12=A 2=B 13= B 3. A 14=D 6=B 7=D 8=A 9=E
Copyright © 2011 Cengage

52 What Decides the Election?
Party=people vote with party/however independents (swing voters) Issues, Especially the Economy Prospective voting=look at issues of the day/vote for the best person to handle it Retrospective voting=look at past records/vote on who we liked in the past handling issues The Campaign Finding a Winning Coalition Copyright © 2011 Cengage

53 What decides the election
The Campaign=1. reawaken voter loyalties to the party. 2. see how candidates handle the pressure 3. allows voters an opportunity to judge character and values of a candidate Finding a Winning Coalition=holding onto your base/win independents Copyright © 2011 Cengage

54 The figures for 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1996 fail to add up to 100 percent because of missing data.
a The figures for 1980, 1984, 1988, and 1996 fail to add up to 100 percent because of missing data. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

55 Figure 10.4 The Economy and Vote for President, 1948–2004
Source: From American Public Opinion, 5th ed., by Robert S. Erikson and Kent L. Tedin. Copyright © 1995 by Addison-Wesley Educational Publishers, Inc. Reprinted by permission of Pearson Education, Inc. Notes: (1) Each dot represents a presidential election, showing the popular vote received by the incumbent president’s party. (2) 1992 data do not include votes for independent candidate H. Ross Perot. (3) 2004 value on RDI is projection from data available in December 2004. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

56 Sources: For 1964–1976: Gallup poll data, as tabulated in Jeane J
Sources: For 1964–1976: Gallup poll data, as tabulated in Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, “Changing Patterns of Electoral Competition,” in The New American Political System, ed. Anthony King (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1978), 254–256. For 1980–1992: Data from New York Times/CBS News exit polls. For 1996: Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 1997, p. 188, For 2000: Exit polls supplied by ABC News. For 2004 and 2008, CNN exit polls. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

57 Union members were once heavily Democratic, but since Ronald Reagan began winning white union votes in 1980, these votes have been up for grabs. p. 252 Bettmann/Corbis At a public meeting, Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher challenged Barack Obama on his tax plan and quickly became known as “Joe the Plumber.” p. 252 Copyright © 2011 Cengage Al Goldis/ AP Photo

58 Sources: For 1964–1976: Gallup poll data, as tabulated in Jeane J
Sources: For 1964–1976: Gallup poll data, as tabulated in Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, “Changing Patterns of Electoral Competition,” in The New American Political System, ed. Anthony King (Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1978), 254–256. For 1980–1992: Data from New York Times/CBS News exit polls. For 1996: Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report, 1997, p. 188, For 2000: Exit polls supplied by ABC News. For 2004 and 2008, CNN exit polls. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

59 Figure 10.5 Partisan Division of the Presidential Vote, 1856-2008
Sources: Information for 1856–1988, updated from Historical Data Archive, Inter-University Consortium for Political Research, as reported in William H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale, Political Behavior of the American Electorate, 3rd ed., 32. For 1992: World Almanac and Book of Facts 1994, 73. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

60 WHAT WOULD YOU DO? M E M O R A N D U M To: Arjun Bruno, National Party Chairman From: Arlene Marcus, State Party Chairwoman Subject: Supporting a National Primary In the past few election cycles, our state’s role in the party nomination for president virtually has disappeared with a May primary date. Several states have leapfrogged ahead of us, and party leaders have indicated that they do not want any more states to move up their primary date. The national party needs to find a way to ensure that all states, large and small, have a real voice in nominating a presidential candidate. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

61 WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Arguments for: 1. A single national primary permits equal participation by all states and presents a fair compromise with the increased number of delegates that larger states send to the national conventions, much like the compromises during the original constitutional debates. 2. The nominating process needs to be less costly, particularly when presidential candidates realistically need to raise $100 million a year before the general election to be competitive for the nomination. Holding all primaries and caucuses on a single day will reduce overall election expenses significantly. 3. If the American electorate knows presidential nominations will be decided by each party on one day, then they will be more likely to vote, a significant factor for elections in which historically, fewer than 20 percent of eligible voters typically participate. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

62 WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Arguments against: 1. Each state decides in conjunction with the national party when its primary or caucus will take place, and the federal system of government designed by the Framers did not guarantee that all states would be treated equally at all times. 2. A national primary would favor candidates with high name recognition and funding to further that recognition and would severely disadvantage lesser known candidates within the party. 3. Even though the general election takes place on one day, voter turnout in the United States still is lower than in other advanced industrialized democracies, which suggests that other factors influence who participates. Copyright © 2011 Cengage

63 WHAT WOULD YOU DO? Your decision: Support National Primary? Oppose National Primary? Copyright © 2011 Cengage

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