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Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey Prepared by David Binder Research Conducted November 6 th - 16 th, 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey Prepared by David Binder Research Conducted November 6 th - 16 th, 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 Proposition 8 Post-Election California Voter Survey Prepared by David Binder Research Conducted November 6 th - 16 th, 2008

2 Research Methodology

3 800 voters living in California who voted in the November 2008 election, plus an additional oversample of 266 Asian, Latino, and African American voters. Methodology Respondents Dates Poll was conducted November 6th to 16th, Margin of Error Margin of error: 3.0% 3

4 Summary Findings 4

5 Summary Findings: Overall Overall Results Proposition 8 was passed on November 4, 2008 by a margin of 52% to 48% by a margin of about 600,000 votes out of 1.3 million votes cast. Two areas of the state stood out: The Central Valley counties overwhelmingly supported the measure by 71%-29%, while the more populous Bay Area was strongly opposed (39%-61%). However, the Southern California counties which comprise 55% of the total vote supported Prop 8 by 54% to 46%. In Los Angeles County, 69% voted for Barack Obama for President, but slightly less than 50% voted no on Proposition 8 – a gap of 19 percentage points (compared to a 13 point differential statewide). 5

6 Summary Findings: Demographics Results by Subgroup Political ideology was the factor that corresponded most highly to the Proposition 8 vote, with 22% of liberals voting yes on 8, compared to 51% of moderates and 82% of conservatives. Election day exit polls that showed 70% of African American voters supporting Proposition 8 appear incorrect. Our survey shows 58% of Blacks voting for 8. Precincts in Southern California’s most concentrated areas of African American voters – Carson and Compton – show 65% support for Prop 8. Predominately African American precincts in other areas of LA County and in San Francisco showed support in the low-to-mid 50 percent range. The factor next most important in determining vote on Prop 8, after ideology, was religion, with voters who worship regularly being strongly more likely to support Prop 8, by a 70% to 30%, while those who worship less often voted 38% to 62% against Prop 8. Blacks and Latinos who worship less than once a week opposed Prop 8. 6

7 Summary Findings: Reasons for Vote and Influencers Reasons for Vote Supporters of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that marriage is between a man and a woman. Secondarily, Prop 8 supporters disclosed religious reasons as motive for their support. Opponents of Prop 8 most frequently cited their view that same sex marriage was an issue of civil rights and equal rights, as well as their view that everyone should have the freedom to marry the person of their choosing. Most voters stated they were most influenced by discussions with friends, family and coworkers. This pool of voters opposed Proposition 8. About one-quarter said they had a strong personal opinion on the issue that was not swayed by other communications. This pool voted yes. About 8% said they were swayed by the church. This pool voted yes by 94% to 6%. 7 Influ- encers

8 Summary Findings: Communications TV ads Among the yes on 8 ads, the message that stood out was that Prop 8 will cause the teaching of same sex marriage in schools. Among the no on 8 ads, most saw the ad featuring Senator Dianne Feinstein. The ads with Feinstein and Sam and Julia Thoron were statistically more likely to cause a no vote than were other ads. The History ad narrated by Samuel L. Jackson was also convincing. Vast majority of voters said mail and telephone calls were not influential. Only 5% visited official campaign websites, but those who visited the no on 8 website rated it more influential than visitors to the yes site. About 10% said they received information from a church, and 49% felt this information was convincing – a much higher proportion than other sources, such as labor unions, newspaper editorials and television ads. 8 Other Commu- nication sources

9 Summary Findings: Messaging Messa- ging Only about 17% of yes on 8 voters could name something tangible that could cause them to change their mind and support same sex marriage, including: Call marriage by another name Ensure that same sex marriage will not be taught in schools Ensure that churches will not be forced to perform same sex marriages Approval, or lack of formal opposition, from churches or religious leaders 9

10 Election Results

11 California Election Results November 4, 2008 President Obama8,274, % McCain5,011, % Prop 8 No6,401, % Yes7,001, % Gap between Obama vote and No on 8 vote was 1.8 million, or 14%

12 12 Prop 8 vs Obama Prop 8 Map – 52% Yes vs 48% NoPresidential Vote -- 61% Obama vs 37% McCain

13 13 Other Southern California: Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Barbara, Ventura Central Valley: Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, Stanislaus, Tulare Sacramento / Tahoe: Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, San Joaquin, Yolo Bay Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, SF, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, Sonoma Central Coast: Monterey, San Benito, San Luis Obispo, Santa Cruz Inland / Mountains / Other: Alpine, Butte, Calaveras, Colusa, Del Norte, Glenn, Humboldt, Inyo, Lake, Lassen, Mariposa, Modoc, Mono, Nevada, Plumas, Shasta, Sierra, Siskiyou, Sutter, Tehama, Trinity,. Tuolumne, Yuba LA County had 19% difference between vote for Obama and vote against Prop 8 Region % Obama% No on 8 % Obama – Prop 8 LA County San Diego County54468 Other Southern California Central Valley Sacramento / Tahoe Region Bay Area Central Coast64568 Inland / Mountains / Other46406 Total

14 14 Which one of the 12 state propositions on the November 4 th ballot were you most interested in? Prop 8 generated far more interest than any other state proposition Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008

15 15 The outcome of Prop 8 was more important to Yes voters than No voters As you may know, Proposition 8 passed. How important to you is the outcome of the vote on Proposition 8? % Very Important Evangelical Christians: 77% (vs all others: 61%) Women: 69% (vs Men: 60%) Latinos: 67% Overall: 65% Whites: 64% Source: PPIC Statewide Survey, Dec 2008

16 Vote by Subgroups

17 Prop 8 by gender % voting yes 17

18 Prop 8 by gender and family status % voting yes 18

19 Prop 8 by age % voting yes 19

20 Prop 8 by ethnicity % voting Yes 20

21 Prop 8 by party % voting yes 21

22 There is a direct correspondence between voters’ self-placement on an ideological scale and the percent supporting Proposition 8 % voting yes

23 Prop 8 by religion % voting yes 23

24 Prop 8 by frequency of worship % voting yes 24

25 Prop 8 by education level % voting Yes 25 Source: media exit poll

26 Prop 8 by presidential vote % voting Yes 26

27 Prop 8 by knowledge of LGBT people % voting Yes 27

28 Timing & Influences

29 29 Q8 N=549 What are the reasons why you voted YES on Proposition 8? BASE: Those voting YES Yes voters are driven by the belief that marriage is between a man and a woman

30 30 Q9 N=515 What are the reasons why you voted NO on Proposition 8? BASE: Those voting NO No voters are driven by belief in equal rights and freedom to choose whom to marry

31 31 Q12 (N=1066) Which of the following was the most influential to you when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8? Majority of voters were most influenced by discussions with friends and family and their personal opinion, while 8% were most influenced by religion.

32 32 Q12 (N=1066) Which of the following was the most influential to you when deciding how to vote on Proposition 8? Voters influenced by discussions more likely to vote no, voters influenced by the religion more likely to vote yes % voting Yes

33 Communications

34 34 Q28-34 (N=1066) Ads, mail & discussions with friends and family had the greatest reach. Phone calls and newspaper endorsements also had strong reach.

35 While about one-third of voters report receiving a phone call about Prop 8, 95% say it wasn’t effective Q63 (N=1066)

36 Seeing gay couples being married on TV did not significantly affect the vote on Proposition 8 Q63 (N=1066) Have you ever seen same sex couples get married on the news or on television? (IF YES:) Did that make you more likely to vote YES on 8, more likely to vote NO on 8, or did it make no difference to you?

37 About 69% saw a Yes on 8 ad, but only 18% found them convincing Q63 (N=1066)

38 38 Q27 (N=549) Can you describe for me one television ad for yes on 8 that you remember that was convincing? The Yes on 8 ad most frequently recalled is about the teaching of same sex marriage in schools.

39 39 Q28-34 (N=1066) No on 8 Ads Seen: Dianne seen by most Percent recall seeing ad

40 40 Q28-34 (N=1066) No on 8 Ads Seen: Among viewers, Thoron ad is more convincing

41 41 Q28-34 (N=1066) Voters who saw Dianne and Thoron are more likely to have voted no on Prop 8. *Significant at the.001 level in logistic regression analysis

42 Takeaways

43 43 Q49-58 (N=1066) Majority of voters believed that Prop 8 would preserve traditional marriage All Voters

44 44 Q49-58 (N=1066) Majority of voters agree that it is wrong to eliminate constitutional right of equal protection and that Prop 8 was unfair, unnecessary and wrong All Voters

45 45 Q49-58 (N=95) 9% voted YES, but believe that Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, and wrong. Regression analysis indicates they were motivated by the belief that Prop 8 will preserve traditional marriage & stop the teaching of same sex marriage in school. Yes voters who believe Prop 8 is unfair, unnecessary, wrong *Significant at the.0005 level in logistic regression analysis

46 46 Q64 N=549 Some people voted no on Proposition 8 because they believe it’s wrong to deny gay people the ability to get married. Is there anything that could change your mind and lead you to support the freedom to marry for everyone some day? What?) 73% of yes voters say there is nothing that could change their mind. 7% want same sex marriage to be called something else.


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