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One last negative ad Rated most effective of 2008 jRF94.

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Presentation on theme: "One last negative ad Rated most effective of 2008 jRF94."— Presentation transcript:

1 One last negative ad Rated most effective of 2008 jRF94

2 Voter Turnout Who votes, who doesn’t? Why? Why a decline? Is there a decline? What proposals to increase turnout?

3 Voter Turnout in US Is there a turnout problem? In US about 50-55% vote in presidential elections –up in 2004 % 2008 (60%) about 30% vote in congressional elections Washington state above the national average

4 Voter Turnout In the US a steady decline (maybe) turnout 10% lower 2000 than 1960 turnout much lower now than 1900 –why ?? today, a lower % of eligible voters participate –far  more eligible voters now

5 Turnout Trend 1948 - 2000 High rates 1952 - 1968 Decline post 1972 M. McDonald data

6 Turnout Trend through 2008 Large change in VAP vs. VEP turnout Since 1980 Pool of eligible voters smaller vs. voting age population M. McDonald data

7 Voter Turnout 1896 90%  drop to 62% in 1904 –voter registration laws –Jim Crow laws 1916 61%  drop to 42% in 1920 –suffrage to women –size of eligible electorate doubled 1936 59%  drop to 51% in 1948 –WWII 1968 60%  drop to 52% 1972 –suffrage granted to 18 y/olds

8 Voter Turnout in US 1960 = 63% in pres (47% in 1962) 1964 = 62% in pres (48% in 1966) 1968 = 61% in pres (47% in 1970) 1984 = 54% in pres (36% in 1986) 1988 = 50% in pres (36% in 1990) 1996 = 49% in pres (36% in 1998) 2000 = 51% in pres (34% in 2002)

9 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline since 1890s? Old numbers from a different context –high mobilization labor intensive parties –limited pool of eligible voters –fraud –more mobilization then vs. now?

10 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline since 1960s? Demise of parties –campaigns now capital intensive (ads) –less direct contacts w/ voters –candidate centered politics –“party building” efforts (soft money) for GOTV had little effect

11 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline? Demise of competition –Fewer US House races competitive now vs. 1960s even with demise of one-party south –Fewer state legislative seats competitive –Campaign activity concentrated in rare, competitive districts (and states)

12 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline? Demise of Competition Effects of competition –10% more competitive presidential race in state = 1% more turnout ie: Ohio (2%) vs (22%) = 2% more –2 initiatives = 1% more –Senate race, Gov race...

13 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline? Increase in 2004 & 2008 Why; stakes higher? –some new issue? –candidate effects?

14 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline? Regulatory barriers –30 day advance registration –vote only on day of election –must vote at specific location –limits on use of mail, absentee ballots –Prohibition on felons voting

15 Voter Turnout in US Why a decline Regulator barriers –What effects of Election Day Registration (EDR)? Seven states 4.5% increase in presidential elections 2.0% increase in midterm

16 Voter Turnout in US Election Day Registration –Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming (ND doesn’t require registration) –Bill in WA (SB 6778) 2008 10 days before election 2009 5 days before 2010 day of election in WA

17 Voter Turnout in US Election Day Registration –Why bother? makes voting more convenient –Who will take advantage? ???

18 Voter Turnout in US Election Day Registration –Proponents: Democratic Party –Opponents: County Auditors Bureaucratic nightmare –requires more staff –vote provisional ballot? –check if registered/voted in other county

19 Voter Turnout Felon disenfranchisement –Two states do not ban from voting (Maine and Vermont) –Some states restore after release / probation (ex Felons) –Some states make ban permanent (unless govt. approves individual’s restoration)

20 Voter Turnout Felon Laws –Adoption corresponds with extension of rights to Black Americans –Before 1860, 12 of 21 states w/ laws –By 1890s, 38 of 45 had laws another spike in adoption 1960s

21 Voter Turnout Effects of Felon laws –There might not be a decline in turnout –Levels of criminal punishment in US way, way up –More felons than ever (Why??) 1.4% of Voting age pop by 2000 was.5% before 1982 –8% of US Voting age population by 2000 up from 2% in 1966

22 Voter Turnout in the US Why a decline Regulatory Barriers –Not a factor growing over time –Easier to register now, easier to vote by mail –EDR explains variation in an election, not since 1960.

23 Voter Turnout in US Maybe no decline? Yes, lower 1972 than 1948 - 1968 Decline mostly outside of south Low turnout rate of young (post 1972) accounts for 1/4 of decline VAP vs. VEP....

24 Turnout by Age Not quite linear Young voters lowest turnout Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008 charles franklin data

25 Turnout by Age Youngest cohort largest segment of the electorate Greatest under- representation in voting

26 Turnout by Age Under-representation? Youth vote by party –200051% Dem –200454% Dem –200866% Dem

27 Voter Turnout So why don’t young people vote? –efficacy –life experiences re: politics –campaigns don’t care about them? MTV ‘Rock to Vote’ a flop? youth vote way up in place where competitive races (stakes are higher) youth vote 10% nationally in 2004

28 Voter Turnout So, who votes? –See Dalton, Chpt. 3 Education Age (old people rule) –Cohort and life cycle effects Partisans (not independents) Income (see ‘Big Tilt’) Efficacy –OK, so what drives efficacy

29 Voter Turnout When & Why do they vote? Regular voters –older people and well educated Peripheral voters – younger people and less-educated

30 Voter turnout Competitive elections mobilize larger effect on young & less educated Presidential race 2004 –person living in uncompetitive state w/ 10th grade ed. had.46 prob. of voting –person in Ohio w/ 10th grade ed.55 prob.

31 Voter Turnout Midterm election (2002) –33 y/o person in state w/ no US Senate race =.37 prob. of voting –33 y/o in state w/ most competitive Senate race.77 prob. of voting –for 62 y.o., high prob. of voting anyway

32 Voter Turnout in US What difference would it make if turnout was higher? –Composition of electorate change? EDR, Vote by Mail, etc. seem to increase turnout but not change electorate Competitive elections seem to increase turnout of everyone –greater effect on young, less educated

33 Voter Turnout in US What happens if higher turnout –and low participating groups show up? Young people Less affluent Ex-felons

34 Voter Turnout Uggen & Manza –Because felons are drawn from ranks of poor and racial minorities, laws take votes from Dems. –Estimate that 2000 Pres. election would have been reversed –Estimate that Dems would have controlled US Senate after 1984 if not for these laws Thus changed composition of US Courts

35 Young voters nominated Obama Young voters (under 30 in 2004) –Born post 1975 = 60% D, 30% R –Born 1943 - 58 = 44% D, 46% R 2008 Primaries –Ds NH 18-24 60% Obama, 22% HRC –Ds NH over 65 32% Obama, 48% HRC –Ds FL 18-24 49% Obama, 39% HRC –Ds FL over 65 24% Obama, 59% HRC –Ds IA 17 - 29 57% Obama, 11% HRC –Ds IA over 65 18% Obama, 45% HRC

36 Voter Turnout Dem primaries: Obama won where youth turnout reduced age gap –28% over 65 in FL, 5 % under 25 –13% over 65 in NH, 11% under 25 –25% over 65 in IA, 22% under 27 –26% over 60 in MI, 8% under 25

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