1. Mitigation Potential and Value of Addressing Agriculture as a Driver of Deforestation Sirintornthep Towprayoon Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment and Earth System Science Research Center. King Mongkut's University of Thonburi Presentation in the workshop of Building REDD-plus Policy Capacity for Developing Country Negotiators and Land Managers 18-20 May 2011 Hanoi Veitnam

2. Outline Agriculture as the driver of deforestation Are agricultural mitigation options drivers of deforestation? Values and costs of agricultural mitigation Agricultural mitigation as the complement to deforestation

3. Developing countriesDeveloped countries World Change of agricultural land from 1961–2002 Type of area change (Mha) Source : Data derived from FAO and AR4

4. FRA 2010 Annual change in forest by region, 1990–2010 Change of agricultural land from 1961–2002 IPCC AR4

5. Driver to deforestation Deforestation Crop price Technology Poverty Population growth Forest fire Soil degradation Agriculture Are agricultural mitigation options driver to deforestation? Culture

6. Mitigation technologies in the agricultural sector Livestock management – Improve feedings practice, dietary additive Manure management – Improve storage and handling, AD, efficient use of nutrient source Direct mitigation : Emission Reduction Indirect mitigation : Avoid CO 2 emission

7. Mitigation technologies in the agricultural sector (cont) Cropland management – Nutrient management – Tillage/residue management – Water management – Rice management – Agroforestry Restoration of degraded land – Organic amendment – Nutrient amendment

8. Mitigation technologies in the agricultural sector (cont) Biofuel/bioenergy – Biochar – Energy crop : Sugarcane to bioethanol, Oil palm to biodiesel

9. Examples of mitigation technology Cropland: nutrient management Nutrient management Reduction efficiency (%) Source Nitrification (Nitrification inhibitor) 38%Akiyama et al., 2009 Polymer-coated fertilizers 35%Akiyama et al., 2009 Dicyandiamide ( Nitrification inhibitor) 20–30%Hadi et al., 2008 Site-specific nutrient management 20%Tassanee et al Co-fertilizer of organic and chemical 46%Zheng et al., 2000 Source: Pongthep and Amnat 2010

10. Examples of mitigation technology Cropland: rice field – Water management 30–40% reduction – SRI (system rice intensification) approx 37% reduction – AWDI (alternative wet /dry irrigation) approx 70% reduction – Inhibitor 20–60% reduction Source : Tassanee and Sirintornthep 2010

11. Values and cost of agricultural mitigation IPCC AR4 WGIII SPM

12. Abatement cost in rice field: Case of Thailand $10–60 per tonne of CO 2 e 1 water drainage 2 shift fertilizer 3 combination of 1 and 2 1 2 3 3 2 1

13. Wassman et al 2007 Marginal abatement cost curves for 3 rd Baseline technology: continuous flooding, Mixed FYM/urea: straw burning 10-60 US$ /tCe

14. Abatement cost curve in agriculture sector of Indonesia

15. Value /Co-benefit Sustainable agriculture Culture and way of life Income Environmental benefit

16. Agricultural mitigation as the complement to deforestation deforestation Crop price Limited land expansion Food and fuel crop competition -Full utilization of cropland – crop rotation -Improve crop yield Poverty alleviation

17. Crop rotation as the alternative systems for sustainable agriculture SustainabilityEnvironmental benefit Energy securityFarmer income increase Yield increased Energy Crop utilization Soil carbon stock increased Emission reduced Rice-crop-rice

18. RI plot wet sowing25 DAS 40 DAS115 DAS 130 DAS140 DAS, harvest RS plot 22 DAT37 DAT 60 DAT90 DAT 115 DAT, harvest 105 DAT

19. Yield from food and fuel rotation crop Agricultural area of Thailand 130.34 M Rai Area of rain-fed rice field (2010) 57.50 M rai rice yield 23.25 M tonnes Area of irrigated rice field (2010) 15.22 M rai rice yield 8.86 M tonnes Sweet sorghum Cultivation time 90-100 days Yield 5-7 tonnes per Rai Syrup from stem 2500-3500 litre per rai Bioethanol 350-420 litre per Rai

20. Source: Stephen A. Goff and John M. Salmeron, 2004. Yield improvement

21. Direction of GMO research and biotechnology

22. Sugarcane CassavaOil Palm Yield (ton per rai) Highest potential using genetic research Potential of genetic study in Thailand Current yield Potential of genetic improvement of energy crops Management and technology Plant breeding/plant development

23. Investment cost of ethanol production (USD/L) SOurce : Global Status of Commercialized Biotech/GM Crops :2007 EU-25 (Beetroot) EU-25 (Wheat) USA (corn) India (Molasses) Thailand ( Sugarcane) Australia (Molasses) Brazil (Sugarcane)

24. Food Fuel and Forest deforestation Crop price Limited land expansion Food and fuel crop competition -Full utilization of cropland—crop rotation -Improve crop yield Poverty alleviation Policies and incentives

25. Messages Sustainable agriculture and agricultural mitigation can be complementary to deforestation Full utilization of cropland with co-benefits for farmers Food security can not be addressed without yield improvement. Policies and incentives are key issue to ensure sustainable agriculture towards negative drivers of deforestation

26. Acknowledgement Thailand Research Fund and Energy and Policy Planning Office for Data from Energy Policy Project Phase II Thailand Greenhouse Gas Management Organization

27. Thank you for your attention www.jgsee.kmutt.ac.th