Presentation on theme: "A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazons municipalities Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho Daniel Nepstad Universidade."— Presentation transcript:
A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazons municipalities Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho Daniel Nepstad Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais The Woods Hole Research Center
To develop a model to project urban and rural populations for the Brazilian Amazons municipalities by integrating data on mortality, fertility, and migration
Methodological steps: n Estimation of crude death rate (mortality), crude birth rate (natality), out-migration and urbanization rates by Amazonian municipality and Brazilian States n Projecting the above estimates using logistic function n Determining the origin-destiny matrix for migratory movements between the above defined spatial units. n Model implementation in a system thinking software (VENSIM) n Model validation versus 2000s IBGE data and other projection models outputs
n The annual projections from 1995 to 2035 are based mainly on demographic data from 1991s and 2000s IBGE census.
Model output versus 2000s IBGE data Validatio n
Urban population 4,500,000 0 Rural population Model outputs aggregated by subregion
The model is designed to handle various scenarios of regional migration Population growth and migration represent an important underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.
Linking population to deforestation CC=0.75n=382
Anthropic pressure - a synthetic index for deforestation potential 0.8-1 0.6-0.8 0.4-06 0.2-04 0.0-02 0.82 to1.0 0.54 to0.82 0.29 to0.54 0.1 to0.29 0 to0.1 non-data A component to be used to project deforestation within SimAmazonia density of deforested anthropic pressure Garcia R, Soares-Filho, Swayer, D. Dimensões sócio-econômicas e movimentos populacionais: uma regionalização da Amazônia brasileira. ABEP, 2004
A demographic dynamics system for the Brazilian Amazons municipalities Thats all, folks…Thanks! Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais The Woods Hole Research Center
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