Labor Market Profile: PSRC Puget Sound Regional Council (PSRC) 4-county region including Seattle Washington Counties 2011 Emp. 2011 Median Hourly Earnings 2011-2021 Projected Change in the Job Base Net Chg. Pct Chg. King1,472,666$23.19+144,860+10% Kitsap122,928$19.11+10,048+8% Pierce374,964$19.12+34,088+9% Snohomish322,405$18.61+28,089+9% PSRC region 2,292,963$21.66+217,085+9% Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2; TIP Strategies, Inc.
PSRC: Occupational Criteria 10 ObjectiveMeasureWeightThreshold 1 Job qualityRelative median earnings, 2011 40% ≥ 100 of region 2 Critical massEmployment level, 2011 30% > 200 jobs 3 Relative advantageLocation quotient, 201115%Above US average (>1.0) 4 MomentumLQ momentum, 2001-20217% Strengthening over 20-yr cycle 5 Regional outlookProj. job growth, 2011-20212%Positive projection 2011-2021 6 Job stabilityJob volatility, 2002-20102% Historic job change by percentiles 7 National outlookBright outlook2%USDOL identified 8 Green jobGreen applications2%USDOL identified Defining an occupational “short-list” Filtered 751 occupations to identify 248 priority occupations Source: TIP Strategies, Inc.
PSRC: Employment Trends Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.2; TIP Strategies, Inc. Current median hourly wages: selected Business & Finance occupations Median wages (line) in the context of the national wage range (bar)
Target Industry Alignment Occupation-driven approach uses labor market data to document: – Composition. Does the composition of my workforce match the needs of the industry or industries I’m targeting? – Availability. Do I have a sufficient supply of workers in critical occupations? – Training. What options are available to increase the supply of relevant occupations?
Composition of Workforce 60-mile radius of Purchase Region (Western, KY) Occupations with significant regional concentrations (LQ > 1.25) SOURCES: EMSI Complete Employment - 2nd Quarter 2010
Training HISPANIC SCHOLARSHIP FUND 1.Profiled occupations that will demand the most college graduates over the 2012-2018 period. 2.Identified industries that will be most impacted by high-demand occupations (HDOs). 3.Cataloged fields of study that most closely link to HDOs.
21 Matching occupations with fields of study: selected STEM occupations Comparison of US annual openings with annual completions Source: EMSI Complete Employment 2012.1, National Crosswalk Service Center. Notes: Completions include degrees/awards conferred for credit by institutions eligible to participate in federal financial aid programs. * Openings from occupations that require an associate’s or bachelor’s degree, less than one year of work experience, and an internship or no on-the-job training.
Leveraging Displaced Workers SOURCES: Anniston Army Depot, URS Corporation, TIP Strategies. Region of impact – Anniston Army Depot Place of residence of affected workers CALHOUN COUNTY, AL
Sidebar: Employer ZIP Code Data 23 CLARKSVILLE, TN
Leveraging Displaced Workers SOURCE: Compiled by TIP Strategies from data provided by URS and ANAD on affected workforce Industrial machinery mechanics = largest single occupational classification Occupational distribution Occupational category of affected workers
Leveraging Displaced Workers Source: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.3, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, TIP Strategies. Top industries Which industries are most likely to employ affected occupations?
Leveraging Displaced Workers Ideal transition scenario is into an occupation with higher wages and stronger projected demand (i.e., upper right-hand quadrant) SOURCE: EMSI Complete Employment - 2011.3 Transferrable skills What occupations could the affected workers transition to?
Leveraging Displaced Workers Operation 1 st RATE [ R eady A ble T rained E mployees]
Leveraging Displaced Workers Job Station | EMSI Career Coach
GHP Regional Workforce Development Task Force The Middle Skills Challenge
Coverage focused on shortage of skilled workers in Energy and Construction sectors Rising wages Project slow-down Hampering ability to expand in Houston Safety affected
GHP Regional Workforce Development Task Force OBJECTIVE: to create an action plan to address the middle skills challenge in Greater Houston SCOPE OF INITIATIVE: project(s) that will address the areas of highest need and yield results in a 1 to 5 year time horizon
Challenge: Why “middle skills” jobs and what are they?
… as many as 25 million new job openings in the US between 2010 and 2020 (47 %) will fall into the middle-skills category.
“Middle Skills” jobs are those that require at least a high school diploma but less than a 4-year degree.
Table 1.12 Education and training categories by detailed occupation Source: Employment Projections program, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_education_training_system.htm Used BLS education & training definitions to define skill levels: “low” = less than HS, HS diploma/GED (no experience, little or no OTJ training, no apprenticeship) “middle” = HS diploma or equivalent (some experience, moderate to long- term OTJ, or apprenticeship ), post-secondary non-degree award, some college/no degree, and associates degree “high” = bachelor’s degree or higher
Distribution of TOTAL employment by broad skill level, Houston MSA Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2013.2; TIP Strategies. Houston MSA based on 10-county definition.in use prior to February 2013 3.6 million jobs in Houston MSA in 2012 1.4 million are middle-skill jobs
Est. average ANNUAL openings, 2012-2017 by broad skill level, Houston MSA With current estimates calling for 75,000 middle skills jobs to be added to the Houston MSA each year through 2017 Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2013.2; TIP Strategies. Houston MSA based on 10-county definition.in use prior to February 2013
Challenge: Adding detail while keeping the data accessible.
The Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system has 23 major groups 11-0000 Management 13-0000 Business & Financial Operations 15-0000 Computer & Mathematical 17-0000 Architecture & Engineering 19-0000 Life, Physical, & Social Science 21-0000 Community & Social Services 23-0000 Legal 25-0000 Education, Training, & Library 27-0000 Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, & Media 29-0000 Healthcare Practitioners & Technical 31-0000 Healthcare Support 33-0000 Protective Service 35-0000 Food Prep & Serving Related 37-0000 Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance 39-0000 Personal Care & Service 41-0000 Sales & Related 43-0000 Office & Admin. Support 45-0000 Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 47-0000 Construction & Extraction 49-0000 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair 51-0000 Production 53-0000 Transportation & Material Moving 55-0000 Military Specific
“Help Wanted” report has 10 broad categories: 1.Sales & Office Support 2.Blue Collar 3.Food & Personal Services 4.Managerial & Professional Office 5.Education 6.Healthcare Professional & Technical 7.Healthcare Support 8.STEM 9.Community Services & Arts 10.Social Science
Distribution of middle skills OCCUPATIONS by broad categories, Houston MSA Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2013.2; TIP Strategies. (e.g. production, transportation, construction) (e.g. technicians, drafters) (e.g. therapists, assistants, aides)
Challenge: Narrowing the field. How do you focus on 348 occupations?
Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2013.2; TIP Strategies. Average annual openings Houston MSA, 2012-2017 Selected middle skills occupations with minimum of 150 projected annual openings
Staffing environment EMSI Talent Market Analyst | 9-box RELATIVE WAGE This factor compares absolute wages with expected wages SUPPLY & DEMAND This factor considers: 1.concentration of occupation in the region 2.changes in concentration over time, and 3.actual changes in the number of jobs Houston-Sugar Land – Baytown, Texas Recruiting environment for software developers Source EMSI http://www.economicmodeling.com/2013/05/17/thinking- inside-the-9-box-to-find-recruiting-options-with-talent-market-analyst/
High Demand Middle Skills Occupations Staffing Environment Description Supply/ Demand Wage Environment General and Operations Managers Business Operations Specialists, All Other Sales Reps, Wholesale and Mfg, Except Technical & Scientific Industrial Machinery Mechanics Managers, All Other Executive Secretaries and Executive Administrative Assistants First-Line Supervisors of Non-Retail Sales Workers First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers Computer Support Specialists First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, and Repairers Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers Machinists Registered Nurses First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers More Difficult Less Difficult Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2013.2, Talent Management Analyst.
High Demand Middle Skills Occupations (cont.) Staffing Environment Description Supply/ Demand Wage Environment Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks Medical Secretaries Electricians Mobile Heavy Equipment Mechanics, Except Engines Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipment Operators Medical Assistants Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers Maintenance and Repair Workers, General Team Assemblers Carpenters Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants More Difficult Less Difficult Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2013.2, Talent Management Analyst.
Source: EMSI Complete Employment – 2013.2; TIP Strategies.
FILTERED OUT: Sales Food & personal services Community services & arts Relevance to Houston’s key sectors
Challenge: Getting a handle on employment when the economy is in MEGA expansion-mode.
Houston area investment over the next 5 years… Source: Greater Houston Partnership. 100+ expansion projects 20,000+ new, permanent JOBS from 74 projects $20+ BILLION in investment from 83 projects
Challenge: Getting the complete picture of the system.
The Crosswalk Validation Project – Table 7 Connects SOC to Department of Education Career Clusters (& Career Pathways) – Still not a one-to-one relationship – Some discretion used to make best match http://www.nrccte.org/resources/studies/crosswalk-validation-project
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Department of Education. Distribution of postsecondary awards of less than four-years Ranked by 2012 completions by career cluster Notes: Includes only those institutions eligible to participate in federal financial aid programs.
Source: Alvin Community College, Brazosport College, Houston Community College, Lee College, Lone Star College, and San Jacinto College
Source: EMSI, Department of Education Career Clusters. Annual Openings for Middle Skills Jobs in Houston Region Ranked by annual openings, 2012-2017
Observations Health professions dominate middle-skills education awards Almost a quarter of openings are for supervisors & managers Though almost three-quarters of occupations are classified as entry-level, the actual job opening is for an experienced worker (replacement for retiree)