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Published byPhilip Ketchem Modified about 1 year ago

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CE of Acquiring and Not Acquiring Versus Bid Bid $MM CE $MM

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Optimal Bid Optimal Bid $8.75M Bid $MM CE $MM Maximum Bid $11.75M Optimal CE$10.64M

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Recommendations (Risk Neutral) Optimal Bid: $8.75M Maximum Bid: $11.75M If Acquire S.S.Kuniang: If the Coast Guard values the Kuniang at scrap value: NEES should repair it without self-unloader. If the Coast Guard values it at the auction price: NEES should keep it with self-unloader by overpaying an additional repair cost of $5.25M If Not Acquire S.S.Kuniang: NEES should buy GD-II Value of Clairvoyance on probability of Coast Guard ruling: $0.76M

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Sensitivity to Coast Guard Ruling If the probability that the Coast Guard rules the SS Kuniang should be valued at its salvage price increases, so does the overall value of the deal at the given bid. The optimal bid also goes up in this case but only marginally.

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Sensitivity to Risk Tolerance The optimal bid is not highly sensitive to risk-aversion because it increases only marginally with higher risk aversion

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