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The World as I see it.... FELIX STEPHEN Head of Strategy & Research ADVANCE Asset Management Limited May 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "The World as I see it.... FELIX STEPHEN Head of Strategy & Research ADVANCE Asset Management Limited May 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 The World as I see it.... FELIX STEPHEN Head of Strategy & Research ADVANCE Asset Management Limited May 2014

2 The future... 1 “You can't connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards. So you have to trust that the dots will somehow connect in your future. You have to trust in something - your gut, destiny, life, karma, whatever. This approach has never let me down, and it has made all the difference in my life” Steve Jobs (Co Founder, Chairman and CEO Apple Inc, Pixar, NeXT Inc) (24 th Feb 1955 – 5 th Oct 2011)

3 Uncertainty, Predictability & Time ( We live in a world of heightened uncertainty ) 2 Source: Dr Tim Jones & Advance Asset Management

4 Demographic dividends have been of exceptional support for financial assets and housing markets 3 Source: Soc Gen & Advance Asset Management

5 Global Headline Inflation Trends (Disinflation) 4 Source: Haver Analytics & Advance Asset Management

6 The importance of credit in a modern economy 5 Source: UBS & Advance Asset Management

7 USA: Money Supply, Credit & Inflation Trends 6 Source: Fed, US Dept of Commerce, Nomura Research Institute & Advance Asset Management

8 US Households are paying down debt even at historically lowest Interest Rates 7 Source: FRB, Dept, of Commerce, NRI & Advance Asset Management

9 QE and the impact on US Employment (What exactly is QE supposed to be doing?) 8 Source: Bloomberg & Advance Asset Management

10 What drives people to make an investment decision? 9 Risk / Return Fear / Greed

11 Investor decisions are influenced by information and emotion 10 Euphoria Panic Fundamental research drives decision making Greed drives decision making Fear drives decision making Risk Appetite

12 Eastern Europe and The South China Sea regions 11 Source: GlobalconflictMaps.com & Advance Asset Management

13 South China Sea 12 Source: UNCLOS, CIA, BBC & Advance Asset Management

14 Growth of Wealth Management Products in China 13 Source: UBS, Bloomberg & Advance Asset Management

15 Core scenario anticipates a gentle decline in growth 14 Source: Soc Gen, Bloomberg & Advance Asset Management

16 Likely progression of a crisis 15 Source: Soc Gen & Advance Asset Management

17 Foreign Ownership of Asian Government Bonds 16 Source: UBS, Bloomberg & Advance Asset Management

18 Ponzi Finance: Speculative and leveraged investing 17 Source: NYSE, Bloomberg & Advance Asset Management

19 Ponzi Finance: Speculative and leveraged investing 18 Source: NYSE, Bloomberg & Advance Asset Management

20 Post GFC House Price Movements Source: OECD, Goldman Sachs, & Advance Asset Management

21 A summary of Macro-prudential housing policies Source: Goldman Sachs, & Advance Asset Management

22 A sharp decline in implied & realised volatility is due to tighter regulation and easy monetary conditions and Source: CitiGroup, Bloomberg & Advance Asset Management

23 The distribution of Risk - The Bell Curve Central banks and regulators have been instrumental in reducing “Tail Risks” 22 Source: Stockcharts.com & Advance Asset Management

24 Our response to uncertainty and volatility: SAA,DAA & TAA 23

25 The future “ In a time of drastic change, it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped to live in a world that NO LONGER EXISTS” Eric Hoffer (American Social Writer & Philosopher) 25 th July 1902 – 21 st May 1983

26 Disclaimer 25 This information is of a general nature only and has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Before acting on the information, a person should consider its appropriateness having regard to these factors. The information is made available for use by advisers only and must not be passed on to clients. The Advance Multi-Blend Funds (Funds) are issued by Advance Asset Management Limited ABN AFSL No (Advance). Before deciding whether to acquire or to continue to hold an investment in a Fund, investors should obtain and consider the current Product Disclosure Statement for the Fund, available from Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. While the information in this document is given by Advance in good faith, it does not warrant that it is accurate, reliable, free from error or omission. Information from third parties is believed to be reliable however it has not been independently verified. Advance is a member of the Westpac Banking Corporation (Westpac) Group of companies. An investment in the Fund does not represent an investment in, deposit with or other liability of Westpac or any other member of the Westpac Group. It is subject to investment risk, including possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. Neither Westpac, nor any other member of the Westpac Group, stands behind or otherwise guarantees the capital value or the performance of an investment in a managed fund issued by Advance. Subject to any terms implied by statute which cannot be excluded, neither Advance nor any other company in the Westpac Group or their directors, employees and associates accept any responsibility for errors in, or omissions from the information.

27 Questions? Follow Felix’s weekly podcast at advance.com.au


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