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College Bowl Final Round. Question #1 Suppose that Purchasing Power Parity holds. Annual inflation in the US is currently 7% annually (from the latest.

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Presentation on theme: "College Bowl Final Round. Question #1 Suppose that Purchasing Power Parity holds. Annual inflation in the US is currently 7% annually (from the latest."— Presentation transcript:

1 College Bowl Final Round

2 Question #1 Suppose that Purchasing Power Parity holds. Annual inflation in the US is currently 7% annually (from the latest CPI numbers) while annualized inflation in Britain is 2%. If the current exchange rate is $1.90 per pound, what will the exchange rate be in 6 months? $1.90 (1.025) = $1.9475

3 Question #2 Suppose that the annual interest rate in the US is 3% while in Europe, a comparable asset pays 4%. The current spot rate is $1.35 per Euro, and the one year forward rate is $1.40. How could you make money off this information and what would your annual return be? By borrowing the US and lending in Europe, you earn 1% (the interest differential), plus 3.7% (the pound appreciation)

4 Question #3 US inflation is currently 7% annually while European inflation is 5%. The dollar depreciates by 4% against the Euro, what happens to the real exchange rate? The real exchange rate depreciates by 4% + 5% - 7% = 2%

5 Question #4 All else equal, if US economic growth outpaces European growth, what should happen to the value of the dollar? It should appreciate relative to the Euro

6 Question #5 The US is running a $600B trade deficit: 1) All else equal, what should happen to the dollar? 2) Changes is the exchange rate should correct the trade deficit unless this is true? The trade deficit should cause the dollar to depreciate (making US goods cheaper and foreign goods more expensive). This will fix the deficit unless import/export elasticities are low.

7 Question #6 Suppose that the price of services (a non-traded good) rises in the US. All else equal, what should happen to the nominal AND real exchange rate? Nothing happens to the nominal exchange rate, the dollar, however, appreciates in real terms (US goods become more expensive relative to foreign goods.

8 Question #7 What is a currency straddle and why is it useful? A straddle combines a put option with a call option. It protects the buyer from both currency appreciations AND depreciations.

9 Question #8 You have a L100,000 payable that will come due in one year. Currently the pound is trading at $1.80. Your point estimate for the pound one year from now is a 5% appreciation (5% depreciation of the dollar) with a standard error of 1%. What is the 95% confidence for you expected dollar costs? A 5% depreciation implies a future exchange rate of $1.80(1.05) = $1.89($100,000) = $189,000 two standard deviations is 2% (+/- $3,780) [$185,220, $192,780]

10 Question #9 If you had a payable denominated in Yen, how would you hedge this in the option market? You would buy a call option on Yen.

11 Question #10 How does economic exposure differ from transaction exposure? Transaction exposure deals with fixed cash flows while economic exposure deals with variable cash flows

12 Question #11 Regression Results VariableCoefficientsStandard Errort Stat Intercept.051.5.03 % Change e ($/E) -3.35.97-3.45 Given this regression of $ cash flows and the exchange rate, how could you hedge your risk in the futures market? You are losing money when the Euro appreciates. Therefore, you could offset this loss by taking a long position in Euro.

13 Question #11 Some people would argue that you shouldn’t have to hedge translation exposure. Why is this? Translation exposure doesn’t involve actual cash flows. Only the conversion of financial statements into the company’s home currency.

14 Question #12 China is currently pegging to the dollar. As the dollar continues to depreciate, what must the Peoples Bank of China do and why is it a bad policy in the long run? China must buy up dollars in the world markets. This expands the Chinese money supply which will ultimately lead to inflation.

15 Question #13 What is contagion and why does it occur? Contagion describes the transmission of currency crises across neighboring countries. It is due to Common policies/shocks Trade linkages Financial linkages Information Problems

16 Question #14 What are the costs/benefits of using an option hedge rather than a forward hedge? An option hedge allows the holder to benefit from profitable exchange rate movements, but costs more up front (the premium)

17 Question #15 If you knew that the Dollar/Euro exchange rate was going to fluctuate between $1.35 and $1.45, what would be the most efficient hedge? An bullish spread (Buy a call option w/ a strike price of $1.35 and sell a call with a strike price of $1.45. The proceeds from the call sale should offset the purchase price of the other call.

18 “I'm the Dude so that's what you call me..ya know ah, that or his Dudeness or duder or El Dudereno if you're not into the whole brevity thing.” The Big Lebowski (1998) Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

19 Dirty Harry (1971) I know what you're thinking. Did he fire six shots or only five? …'ve got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya punk?" Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

20 Wall Street (1987) "Greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right. Greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

21 Apocalypse Now (1979) "I love the smell of napalm in the morning...smells like...victory." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

22 The Graduate (1967) "Mrs. Robinson, you're trying to seduce me. Aren't you?" Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

23 Airplane (1980) - "Surely you can't be serious." - "I am serious, and don't call me Shirley." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

24 Pride of the Yankees (1943) "People all say that I've had a bad break, but today - today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the Earth." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

25 Glengarry Glen Ross (1992) "Only one thing counts in this life: Get them to sign on the line which is dotted...A. Always. B. Be. C. Closing. Always Be Closing." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

26 The Godfather (1972) "My father made him an offer he couldn't refuse." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

27 Silence of the Lambs (1991) "A census taker once tried to test me. I ate his liver with some fava beans and a nice Chianti." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

28 Casablanca (1942) "Of all the gin joints in all the towns in all the world, she walks into mine." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

29 Jerry Maguire (1996) "Show me the money!" Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

30 Forest Gump (1994) "Mama says stupid is as stupid does." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

31 Psycho (1960) "We all go a little mad sometimes... Haven't you?" Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

32 Planet of the Apes (1968) "Get your stinkin' paws off me, you damn dirty ape!" Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

33 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968) "I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

34 Top Gun (1986) "I feel the need - the need for speed!" Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

35 A Streetcar Named Desire (1951) "Hey Stell - Lahhhhh!" "Hey, Stell - Lahhhh!" Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

36 Dr. Strangelove, or: How I learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964) "Gentlemen. You can't fight in here. This is the War Room!" Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

37 Gone With the Wind (1939) "As God is my witness, I'll never be hungry again." Lightning Round – Movie Quotes

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