Presentation on theme: "Inequality, Grievances and Civil War Lars-Erik Cederman, ETH Zürich Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, University of Essex & PRIO Halvard Buhaug, PRIO & NTNU Cambridge."— Presentation transcript:
Inequality, Grievances and Civil War Lars-Erik Cederman, ETH Zürich Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, University of Essex & PRIO Halvard Buhaug, PRIO & NTNU Cambridge University Press, 2013
Grievance skepticism in civil-war literature Yet, we argue that grievances matter Approach: –Intermediate disaggregation –Motivational mechanisms, not just cognition –Ethno-Nationalism, not just ethnicity –Relevant data, rather than standard toolbox Main argument
Horizontal Inequalities Horizontal Inequalities Civil War Grievances Empirical link From inequalities to civil war Group identification Intergroup comparison Evaluation of injustice Framing and blaming Claims & Repression Mobilization
Government Group 1 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 Group 6 State Polity Legend: Included group Excluded group Political relationship Group level dyads
Using Ethnic Power Relations (EPR- ETH) Data to Study the Effect of Exclusion and Downgrading
Polygon overlay (Yugoslavia) 6
Effect for poor groups low_ratio = G/g if g
Beyond dyadic group model Transnational ethnic-kin Grievances and conflict duration Scaling to country level –Constructing better indicators with group-level information –Improving conventional risk forecasts
Conclusions for theory Core themes –Grievances matter! –Economic and political HIs increase risk of civil war –Theory-measure correspondence –Disaggregation in study of conflict Scaling information at different levels of analysis –Theory development in new research areas
Conclusions for policy Address grievances rather than merely strengthening state Focus on demos/inclusion/inequality, not just democracy as elections Relevance to Iraq and Syria Exclusion and discrimination declining globally, but still significant conflict risks
Exclusion over time
Current research: Gleditsch Spatial evolution of conflict –Spread vs. containment –Implications for peacekeeping Conflict and tactics –Non-violent direct action, terrorism and indirect targeting; non-violent direct action –Group perspective on strategy choice
Current research: Buhaug Security implications of climate change –Food insecurity and urban protest –Agricultural loss and rural unrest An urbanization bomb? –All global population growth until 2050 will be absorbed by cities in developing countries –Increasing poverty, inequalities, unemployment to be expected without successful adaptation
Current research: Cederman Endogeneity of exclusion Measuring economic horizontal inequality Power sharing Trends in inequality and civil war Ethnic Power Relations data: next release in October, see
Instrumenting for Exclusion 15 Conflict Colonial Strategy Initial Exclusion Wucherpfennig, Hunziker, Cederman “Who Inherits the State? Colonial Rule and Post-Colonial Conflict.” Working paper, UCL and ETH Zürich.
Using satellite and survey data to improve measures of econ. HI G-Econ EstimateNightlights Estimate Myanmar Cederman, Weidmann and Bormann Triangulating Horizontal Inequality: Toward Improved Conflict Analysis. APSA, Washington DC.
Ethnic inclusion & power sharing 17 Cederman, Hug, Schädel & Wucherpfennig “Territorial autonomy in the shadow of future conflict: Too little too late?” APSA, Chicago. Prewar conflict risk Postwar conflict risk
Exclusion and the decline of violence Cederman, Gleditsch & Wucherpfennig Explaining the Decline of Ethnic Conflict: Was Gurr Right and For the Right Reasons? APSA, Washington DC.