Presentation on theme: "Key Findings of Collier & Hoeffler On Economic Causes of Civil War (1998) Civil war is overwhelmingly a phenomenon of low income countries. Possessing."— Presentation transcript:
Key Findings of Collier & Hoeffler On Economic Causes of Civil War (1998) Civil war is overwhelmingly a phenomenon of low income countries. Possessing natural resources makes things worse, unless there are plenty of them. Countries with larger populations have higher risks of war and these wars last longer: greater attraction of secession. BUT: it is not ethno-linguistic fractionalisation as such which is damaging to societies but that degree of fractionalisation which most facilitates rebel coordination.
Key Findings of Collier & Hoeffler Greed and Grievance in Civil War (2001) All three grievance models have very low explanatory power Opportunity as an explanation of conflict risk is consistent with the economic interpretation of rebellion as greed- motivated –Primary commodity exports –Foregone earnings –Cost of conflict-specific capital –Low density, low urbanisation –Large diaspora Other significant variables: –Ethnic dominance –Democracy –“Time heals”
Key Revisions by Ballentine Varied impact of economic factors on: –Incidence of conflicts –Duration of conflicts –Intensity of conflicts Economic factors matter, but quite possibly in different ways and to differing degrees alternative explanations for Collier and Hoeffler’s findings