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Vinod Khosla Nov, 2010 Punditry vs. Innovation.

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Presentation on theme: "Vinod Khosla Nov, 2010 Punditry vs. Innovation."— Presentation transcript:

1 Vinod Khosla Nov, 2010 Punditry vs. Innovation

2 2010 investments in mobile/web

3 “All progress depends on the unreasonable man” - George Bernard Shaw 3 “Human salvation lies in the hands of the creatively maladjusted” - Martin Luther King

4 “when the train of history hits a curve, the intellectuals fall off.” - Karl Marx 4

5 Experts & Pundits 5

6 Mckinsey : US mobile subscribers Source: American Heritage Magazine - forecast actual 1986 forecast for 2000 6

7 yesterday’s technology, tomorrow’s forecast 1980’s phone:year 2000 phone: 7 2010 phone: 300,000 available apps 7bn+ apps downloaded

8 the folly of predictions: tetlock study hundreds of experts. 80,000+ “expert” forecasts & 20+ years results: experts about the same accuracy as dart-throwing monkeys Source: 8

9 "Cynics never do the impossible, achieve the improbable, take on the inadvisable. Hope is only path to extraordinary success." INSPIRATIONAL TWEET: 9

10 TWEET? -140 characters that millions of people follow -Can tell the mood of a nation -Creates an instantaneous backchannel -Formation of a personal brand -Promotes content Did not exist 5 years ago! Today: More than 100 million users 65 million tweets are posted each day 10

11 11 SF Giants win World Series…

12 12

13 Could McKinsey or an analyst have predicted Twitter? Predicted 140 chars as “culture assessment tool”? 13

14 … the sources of innovation Google, Facebook, Twitter : Fox, NBC, CBS 14 Amazon : Walmart First Solar : Shell & BP Solar Cree : GE DNA Sequencing

15 Big companies vs. innovators Focus on Process Existing markets Focus on DCF, NPV, EPS Careful not to fail “Push” into the market Incrementalism Focus on Vision Invent new Markets/Paths Ignore financial analysis Constantly iterate Create “Pull” Disruption 15

16 How to/not to Financial tools: DCF, NPV, IRR Stage gate development or effectual reasoning? Top down market analysis or evolution? customer wish list or passion for a vision? 16

17 Innovation according to the press Apple Google Microsoft IBM Toyota Amazon LG Electronics BYD GE Sony 17 Samsung Intel Ford RIM VW HP Tata BMW Coca-Cola Nintendo 1-1011-20 Facebook Amazon Apple Google Huawei First Solar PG&E Novartis Walmart HP Hulu Netflix Nike Intel Spotify BYD Cisco Systems IBM GE Disney 1-1011-20 Business WeekFast Company What has surprised you? Source: Businessweek, Fast Company

18 5 years out, the group’s market cap has grown… winners take (almost) all =investment viability Starting Industry Structure But leaders far exceed the also-rans 18

19 1960197019801990200020102020 Devices / Users (MM in Log Scale) 19 New Computing Cycle Characteristics Minicomputer 10+ Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960 – 2020E Note: PC installed base reached 100MM in 1993, cellphone / Internet users reached 1B in 2002 / 2005 respectively; Source: ITU, Mark Lipacis, Morgan Stanley Research. 1 10 100 1000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 PC 100+ Mainframe 1+ Mobile/Gadget Internet 10000? Desktop Internet 1000+

20 20 The old don’t innovate – the new “create the future” Mainframes 1960s Personal Computing 1980s Desktop Internet Computing 1990s Mobile Internet Computing 2000s Mini Computing 1970s New Winners Note: Winners from 1950s to 1980s based on Fortune 500 rankings (revenue-based), desktop Internet winners based on wealth created from 1995 to respective peak market capitalizations. Source: Factset, Fortune, Morgan Stanley Research. Microsoft Cisco Intel Apple Oracle EMC Dell Compaq Google AOL eBay Yahoo! Digital Equipment Data General HP Prime Computervision Wang Labs IBM NCR Control Data Sperry Honeywell Burroughs New Winners Facebook Twitter Apple (exception?) ??

21 as surely as... 1985: NOT a PC in every home 1990: NO email for grandma 1995: NOT the internet 2000: NO pervasive mobile, seacrh 2005: NO social media / iphone 2008: NO Goldman/Morgan bankruptcy? 2010+: reason for optimism 21

22 22 discovery content curation eBooks/interactive content HTML 5… What’s next? Landline phone Standalone radio Portable DVD Low-end Cameras/ camcorders MP3 players GPS Portable gaming Voice recorders Translator/ dictionary Iphone Ipad Android Existing static products… Difficult to predict the future, when innovation is the name of the game recommendations Reputation

23 what will it be? Taste graphs 23 curation vs. creation of online content privacy vs. personalization where will HTML 5 lead? discovery vs. recommendation curation of goods in the real world? who do you trust? Friends, experts, crowd? mvp with rapid iteration vs. better game play & production value?

24 not yet done… Payments Semantic Web Convey intent Analysis: Network, behavior,… 24 sensors medicine privacy & authentication personalization Everything everywhere Anticipate needs (agents) Group-sourced innovation Discovery Reputation

25 Innovators 25

26 “The fine line separating the delusional from the visionaries amongst us is often not foresight, but rather hindsight.” Ben Semel 26

27 1.It is not possible to convert a gasoline engine to a Diesel, using the same transfer line. I did it and it is the most successful Diesel in the world and it was copied by everybody. 2.The combustion for a high speed Diesel is not possible. I started production with a 5000 rpm Diesel with 2000 engines/day on the gasoline engine transfer line. 3. You cannot use a rubber toothed belt to drive the camshaft and the injection pump. I did it and it is the standard solution today. 4.It is not possible to use an aluminum radiator because the corrosion will destroy the engine. I did it and it is the standard solution today. 5.It is not possible to create an “emission free” natural gas burner. I did it. It is in mass production at VIESSMANN. BUDERUS sued VIESSMANN about “emission free” and lost. Dr. Peter Hofbauer, Chairman and CTO Attitude matters: 27 Response when told it can’t be done “everyone told me….” Ecomotors (50% increase in engine efficiency)

28 “It is not because things are difficult that we do not dare, it is because we do not dare that they are difficult.” - Seneca “Try and fail, but don't fail to try.” - Stephen Kaggwa “Courage is doing what you're afraid to do. There can be no courage unless you're scared.” - Eddie Rickenbacker “Only those who dare fail greatly can achieve greatly.” - Robert F. Kennedy “You will face many defeats in your life, but never let yourself be defeated.” - Maya Angelou The willingness to fail gives us the freedom to succeed 28

29 The Weather Forecast … Rate of change will accelerate… Adaptability, agility are key! Innovation & entrepreneurship will thrive Fun, fortunes & failure will be in abundance 29

30 to predict the future, invent it! -Alan Kay 30

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