U.S. Beef Exports (000 MT) 636 Source: USDA/USMEF
U.S. Beef and Beef Variety Meat Exports (000 MT) 636 Beef*: 369 BVM*: 267 Source: USDA/USMEF *Forecast Jan-August
U.S. Pork Exports by Region (000 MT) Source: USDA/USMEF
U.S. Pork Exports (000 MT) * ForecastSource: USDA/USMEF
U.S. Lamb & Mutton Exports MT 13,800 Source: USDA/USMEF
Total Feedgrains and Soybean Meal Exported through Beef and Pork (million bushels) Source: USDA/USMEF
Changing Corn Demand: Feed, Fuel, and Exports Livestock feeders largest corn users Feed & Residual Use predicted around 55 percent of corn production in 2006/07 6 billion bushels Use per GCAU projected down in 2006/07 GCAUs are up slightly??? Drought, bird flu, strong demand… Cattle on feed inventory up 9% but placements were 5% lower during October Beef, pork, and poultry production projected higher in 2007 Co-products make up the difference?
U.S. Ethanol Production Renewable Fuels Association (RFA). 2006. From Niche to Nation Ethanol Industry Outlook. Washington DC, February. 105 ethanol plants = 5 BGY 44 under construction= total 8.3 BGY
Will more corn go to ethanol production than is exported?
Top 10 U.S. Corn Export Markets USDA; 1000 MT Approx 2 Billion bushels
Trade-offs between increasing corn prices and increasing supply of distiller’s grains Availability and variety of ethanol co-products Transportation and handling costs Additional investments Consistency Cattle Performance Environmental regs Changing co-products/ethanol production innovations
WDGS Transport WDGS 35% Dry Matter How far can we haul all that water? ~ 35-40% increase in feed weight
WDGS Storage Additional storage costs Preservatives Silage bags Use w/in 3 to 5 days Concrete Slab Front-end loaders
Quick Note on Pork & Poultry More difficult to feed distillers grains Can only feed at low inclusion rates (< 15% of the ration on dry matter basis) Generally cannot feed WDGS, only DDGS which partially replaces corn & soybean meal Soybean meal higher quality protein source more consistent
Economic Returns from Feeding WDGS Trucking costs: $2.50 per loaded mile 10 year average corn prices Assuming $0.05 to $0.10/bu basis at plant WDGS 95% price of corn on equal DM basis Vander Pol et al. (2006) At plant optimum WDGS inclusion rate 30 to 40% on dry matter basis $10-$23 per head return
Changes When ethanol production arrives: Turn off the steam chest Feed WDGS with dry rolled corn Increase cattle performance Decrease Natural Gas costs Invest in Roto-mix® trucks If already feeding silage shouldn’t need additional equipment (front end loaders) Increase labor, fuel and maintenance Feed lower quality forages Vegetarian diets= $$$
Distant from ethanol production 15% DDGS (dry matter basis) Railed in similar to corn Save processing costs Positive cattle performance results Also Corn gluten feed…
Finally… Cost effective use of WDGS depends on inclusion rate, distance from ethanol plant, cattle performance Even with extra costs, still affordable feed ingredient Livestock feeders and ethanol producers can co- exist!
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