1. 1 Demonstration of Methodology Expert Panel Public Meeting Austin, Texas January 28, 2015

2. 2 Agenda  Introductions  Overview  Preliminary Overall Methodology  Demonstration of Methodology  Site  Current Model Inputs  Hazard Module  Damage Module  Results  Q&A

3. 3 Introductions  Sam Amoroso, Ph.D. P.E., S.E.Forte & Tablada, Inc.  Bob Bailey, Ph.D., P.E.Exponent, Inc.  Bill Coulbourne, P.E.Coulbourne Consulting  Andrew Kennedy, Ph.D. University of Notre Dame  Doug Smith, Ph.D., P.E.Texas Tech University

4. 4 Overview  1 st Public Meeting: Austin, August 22, 2013  2 nd Public Meeting: Corpus Christi, December 10, 2013  3 rd Public Meeting: Austin, March 13, 2014  4 th Public Meeting: Austin, May 29, 2014  5 th Public Meeting: Austin, August 7, 2014  6 th Public Meeting: Austin, November 12, 2014

5. 5 Preliminary Overall Methodology

6. 6 Initial Focus: Residential Slab Only Claims

7. 7 Wind Speeds: Hurricane Ike at Landfall

8. 8 Surge + Wave: Hurricane Ike Source: ARCADIS U.S., Inc., Highlands Ranch, Colorado 80129

9. 9 Inputs for Surge + Wave Vulnerability Significant Wave Height Surge Elevation House Age (in ranges of years) Lowest Horizontal Structural Member Elevation

10. 10 Damage Module  Input  Hazard Time Histories  Wind  Surge + Wave  Construction Features  Output  Time of probable collapse from surge + waves  Time Histories of component damage due to wind

11. 11 Demonstration of Methodology: Site Surviving Structure Slab-only Structure

12. 12 Pictometry™: Aerial View Before Ike

13. 13 Pictometry™: Aerial View After Ike

14. 14 Current Model Inputs  Roof shape: Gable  Roof cover type: Asphalt Shingle  Roof slope: 4:12  Roof height: 20 ft.  Roof cover age: 9 years  Length: 42 ft.  Width: 34 ft.  Eave height: 17 ft.

15. 15 Current Model Inputs (cont.)  Structure primary axis: 60°  Terrain exposure: D  Overhead garage door: Yes  Direction of garage door: 240°  Garage panel door width: Single  Garage attached: Yes  Percent window area: 0-25 Elevation of Lowest Horizontal Structural Member: 14.83 ft.  Year Built: 1999

16. 16 Damage Module Construction Features: Surviving Structure Slab-Only Structure

17. 17 Damage Module Surviving Structure: Time of Probable Collapse 18.24 ft.

18. 18 Damage Module Slab-Only Structure: Time of Probable Collapse 14.83 ft.

19. 19 Damage Module Surviving Structure: Component Damage Time Histories

20. 20 Damage Module Slab-Only Structure: Component Damage Time Histories Point where structure topples over.

21. 21 Damage Module Gable Roof Zones:

22. 22 Damage Module Wall Zones:

23. 23 Results Surviving Structure: Component Wind Damage

24. 24 Results Slab-Only Structure : Component Wind Damage

25. 25 Results Slab-Only Structure: Roof Cover Damage Variation with Height and Exposure

26. 26 Ongoing Work  The model will include a provision for variations in component resistance, for example: vinyl siding vs. fiber cement siding; shingles vs. metal roof; etc. At the request of TDI the Panel is working to include these and other component variations into the model before its first release in 2015.

27. 27 Q&A