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THE MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS) Tools for the development, application, and analysis of hydrologic and ecosystem models.

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Presentation on theme: "THE MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS) Tools for the development, application, and analysis of hydrologic and ecosystem models."— Presentation transcript:

1 THE MODULAR MODELING SYSTEM (MMS) Tools for the development, application, and analysis of hydrologic and ecosystem models

2 MODELING ISSUES Increasing complexity of problems Increasing need for multidisciplinary approaches Continued advances in science and computer technology New data resources No universal models

3 STARTING POINTS There are no universal models Models for different purposes require different levels of detail and comprehensiveness Appropriate model process conceptualizations are a function of problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application

4 Modeling Conundrum Experimental science builds on hypothesis testing and interpretation based on earlier published hypotheses and results Modelers tend to build from the ground up because existing models are not well designed for incremental improvement by others

5 TOOL BOX MODELING VIEWS Research Model Developer Complex Detail Application Model Developer Model User Resource Manager Policy Maker Condensed Analysis

6 LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS Single Purpose Multi-objective, Complex

7 LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

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9 CRITERIA AND RULES FOR GOOD MODULE DESIGN relate directly to real world components or processes have input and output variables that are measurable values communicate solely via these input and output variables Modules should Reynolds J.F., and Acock, B., 1997, Modularity and genericness in plant and ecosystem models: Ecological Modeling 94, p 7-16

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11 MODEL BUILDING TOOL - XMBUILD

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13 SELECTED MODELS AND MODULES IN MMS USGS –PRMS –DAFLOW –1-D Sediment Transport (beta) –MODFLOW –WEBMOD –WETMOD OTHER –TOPMODEL –Hydro-17 (NWS snowmelt) –Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) (ARS) –ENNS Model (modified HBV, Austria) IN DEVELOPMENT –PRMS-MODFLOW-DAFLOW-UnsatZone –Sacramento Model (NWS) –PHREEQC, OTIS, OTEQ, AHM (QW models) –RZWQM, RUSLE, SWAT, Generic Crop (ARS Ag models)

14 LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

15 Ground Water - Surface Water Coupling

16 PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone Streamflow Unsaturated Zone Model (Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR)

17 LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

18 LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Database Fish Model Data Management Interface (DMI) MMS Model Off-the-shelf Model

19 LOOSELEY COUPLED MODELS Watershed Model Hydraulics Model Database Fish Model Data Management Interface (DMI) MMS Model Off-the-shelf Model Model Management Interface (MMI) [XML]

20 MULTI-MODEL CONTROLLER

21 LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

22 Watershed and River Systems Management Program Recreation Municipal & Industrial Riparian Habitat Hydropower Irrigation Endangered Species Research and development of decision support systems and their application to achieve an equitable balance among water resource issues.

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25 RiverWare – Lower Colorado River

26 Upper Gunnison DSS Hydrologic Database Hydromet Real-time climate data feed RiverWare Reservoir and River System Operations Model Object User Interface Interface for data visualization and modeling Modular Modeling System Physical Process Models DMI MMI

27 WARSMP BASINS YAKIMA GUNNISON TRUCKEE RIO GRANDE SAN JUAN SACRAMENTO SAN JOAQUIN CURRENTLY OPERATIONAL IN DEVELOPMENT IN DEVELOPMENT, MMS PLUS WARSMP RELATED

28 LEVELS OF MODULAR DESIGN PROCESS MODEL FULLY COUPLED MODELS LOOSELY COUPLED MODELS RESOURCE MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS ANALYSIS AND SUPPORT TOOLS

29 ANALYSIS and SUPPORT TOOLS Currently Available Statistical and Graphical Analyses Parameter Optimization Parameter Sensitivity Analysis Beta Testing Shuffle Complex Evolution Optimization Multi-Objective COMplex Evolution Algorithm (MOCOM) Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) Visualization

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31 GIS WEASEL

32 Vegetation Type (USFS) Vegetation Density (USFS) Land Use-Land Cover (USGS) DIGITAL DATABASES (1 km2 resolution)

33 STATSGO - Soils Data, 1 km2 (USDA)

34 AUTOMATED PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING THE GIS WEASEL

35 Forecast Methodologies - Historic data as analog for the future Point measures (ESP) Radar data (NEXRAD) - Synthetic time-series using regional info - Atmospheric model output Statistical Downscaling Dynamical Downscaling

36 3-D Visualization

37 CURRENT FOCUS ISSUES IN MMS DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION Coupling of SW and GW Models A Priori Parameter Estimation Incorporation of Remotely Sensed Data Coupling of Atmospheric and Hydrologic Models Improved Hydrologic and Ecosystem Process Simulation Integrated Analysis and Support Tools

38 PRMS, MODFLOW, DAFLOW Unsaturated Zone Streamflow Unsaturated Zone Model (Niswonger and Prudic, 2003, WRR)

39 A Priori Parameter Estimation Selected Basins Hydrologic Landscape Units

40 Sleepers River, Vermont Trout Lake, Wisconsin Panola Mountain, Georgia Luquillo, Puerto Rico Loch Vale, Colorado WATER, ENERGY, AND BIOGEOCHEMICAL BUDGETS (WEBB) PROGRAM USGS

41 FOCUS ISSUES ARE ADDRESSED THROUGH COLLABORATIVE MULTI- DISCIPLINARY EFFORTS

42 University of Arizona NASA funded -- Southwest Regional Earth Science Applications Center -- Integration of remotely sensed data NSF funded -- Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) UNIVERSITY COLLABORATION University of Colorado NOAA funded -- Coupling of hydrologic and atmospheric models to provide short- to long-term forecasts

43 NRCS Streamflow Forecast Points (1200)

44 INTEGRATED SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT Collaborative effort to integrate the Object Modeling System (OMS) and the Modular Modeling System (MMS) US Geological Survey Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany US Agricultural Research Service (ARS) US Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS)

45 U.S. MULTI-AGENCY MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Army Corp of Engineers (COE) US Geological Survey (USGS) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) Facilitates cooperation in R&D of multi-media environmental models, frameworks, and databases for use in human and environmental health risk assessment n Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) n Department of Energy (DOE) n US Agricultural Research Service (ARS) n Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) (http://www.iscmem.org)

46 MMS International Collaboration Public Works Research Institute, Japan Korean Water Resources Corp., South Korea Chinese Academy of Sciences, Geography and Natural Resources Institute, Beijing Friedrich Schiller University, Jena, Germany University of Bodenkultur, Vienna, Austria International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna

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48 SUMMARY Toolbox approach to model and system development Supports multi-disciplinary model integration for decision support systems Open source software design allows many to share resources, expertise, knowledge, and costs Flexible framework approach enables the incorporation of continuing advances in science, databases, and computer technology

49 Chicken Soup for the Modeling Soul “ A fool with a tool is still a fool.” System Development magazine POINT

50 PRECIPITATION - RUNOFF MODELING PROJECT OPEN SHOP CONSULTATION COLLABORATION

51 MORE INFORMATION SW_precip_runoff/papers


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