1. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Ground Damage Database David Anderson Nancy Rockbrune

2. 26 th IGHC Conference Ground Damage Database Introduction

3. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Introductions  David Anderson GDDB Chair Head of Operational Safety ~ British Airways  Nancy Rockbrune GDDB Secretary Assistant Director SMS and Operational Data Management ~ IATA 3

4. 26 th IGHC Conference Ground Damage Database Overview

5. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY History  Ground damage has been long reported to cost airlines $4b annually Estimate Unplanned costs  Significant changes need to be made Thin margins  Focus on Ground Operations has been made  Collaboration to make a difference 5

6. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY History  Launched 2011, with limited membership  Shift in IATA’s data management and analysis approach  During 2011 and 2012 new reporting protocols and requirements were developed Updated Contract Launched Q1 2012 First useable data received from 10 members (with some manipulation) Consistently receiving useable data from 14 participants  2013 focus on expanding participation Any airline, ground service provider, and / or airport which provide ground services are eligible to participate in the program 6

7. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY GDDB Coverage ~ As of December 2012 7

8. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY GDDB Coverage ~ As of May 1, 2013 8

9. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY GDDB Coverage ~ As of May 1, 2013 9

10. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Efforts to Support Growth  Introductory letter to all Stakeholders  Updated contract with reporting criteria  IT development Automated quality check Web Form Discussions with strategic partners to develop GDDB submission extract from existing reporting systems Common dimension tables Participant query tool 10

11. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Efforts to Support Growth  Introduction of IOSA provision ~ ISM Ed. 7 GRH 1.11.6 The Operator should have a process to ensure aircraft ground damages are reported to IATA for inclusion in the Ground Damage Database (GDDB). Such reports should be submitted in accordance with the formal IATA ground damage reporting structure. (GM) 11

12. 26 th IGHC Conference Ground Damage Database Purpose

13. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Purpose  Facilitate data driven improvements to effectively improve performance  Gather and analyze global data with Industry partnership Provide information not otherwise possible Identify trends and contributing factors allowing for the development and assessment of effective mitigation actions Establish a baseline of ground damage performance in which future comparisons can be made 13

14. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Use of Data  Conduct statistical analysis on clean defensible data Statistical analysis produces more tangible information Measures process performance Identify and prioritize contributing factors to process performance Measure and predict process performance improvements Provides confidence interval Measures the quality of the data  Communicate findings to applicable WGs and TFs 14

15. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY What Data?  Data (even seemingly benign) is critical Identifying issues Determine the effectiveness of any mitigation actions Demonstrating effectiveness of the program as a whole  Data driven decisions  Not only improves safety / performance but also makes for a more efficient organization as a whole 15

16. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Types of Data?  Reactive ~ wait for incidents to happen and try to understand why  Proactive ~ analyze identified risks to mitigate before they turn into an accident / incident  Predictive ~ mature system which conducts predictive analytics (statistical modeling) to identify and mitigate unknown risks 16

17. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Confidential Reporting  Confidential reporting can be used for the following safety concerns: Unsafe behaviors Inadvertent errors and mistakes Near miss occurrences (incidents that did not occur but could have easily resulted in a serious event) Inadvertent errors or violations of aircraft handling or servicing systems Procedures or processes that could be improved 17

18. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Data Collection Process  Identify hazards  Report on hazards and occurrences  Collect and risk assess reported hazards  Trend and analyze information  Identify mitigation action  Monitor for effectiveness  Review and monitoring for continuous improvement 18

19. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Challenge ~ Data Quality  Any airline, ground service provider, and / or airport which provide ground services are eligible to participate in the program  Variance in data received  Data integrity the utmost of importance  Confidence in analysis and decisions derived from it is equal to the confidence in the data itself 19

20. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Data Management Principles  Information producers and knowledge workers alike must know the meaning of information; otherwise they cannot perform their work properly  Information producers must also know the business rules, valid values, and formats to create information correctly  Information definition is to data (content) what manufacturing product specifications are to the manufactured product  Quality “Information Product Specifications” are necessary for the consistent production of quality information 20

21. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Data Management Principles  Managing by averages leads to flawed decision making as you are not accounting for process variation  If measurement system variation is too large there is an increased risk of:  Rejecting good data  Accepting bad data  Important to know how much of the observed variation of a process is due to the actual process itself (normal) and how much is due to the measurement system 21

22. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Data Management Principles  Operational definitions (includes taxonomies) help reduce subjectivity and variance in your measurement system (data)  Operational definitions can be: A written statement Templates Display of comparisons (colour chart)  Operational definitions should be: Something people can really use Enables different people to reach the same conclusion (repeatability) Enables the same person to reach the same correct conclusion at different times (reproducibility) 22

23. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Taxonomy / Operational Definitions  Controls data inputs  Reduce subjectivity  Reduce variation  Means for integration (internal and external) 23

24. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Solution ~ Defined Fields  GDDB TF developed reporting criteria Representatives from Operators, GSP’s, Manufacturers and Industry groups  Identified data to be consistently reported amongst ALL members Includes definitions / assumptions Minimize data variance  Identify means in which data and analysis will feed ground operations working groups and vice versa 24

25. 26 th IGHC Conference Ground Damage Database Reporting Criteria

26. 26 th IGHC Conference Definition In Scope  While parked at Gate / Stand or other parked area  During Marshaling or using Stand Guidance  During Deicing  While being Towed  Near Miss  Slide Deployments Out of Scope  FOD  Wildlife Damage  Lightning Strikes  Environmental “Any occurrence / event associated with ground operations that results in aircraft damage” 26

27. 26 th IGHC Conference Field Categories  Mandatory Incident details Location details Aircraft details Ramp conditions Phase of operation ~ definitions included Activities Type of damage Damage to aircraft Ground equipment Severity ~ definitions included  Optional Causal factors Corrective actions Free text 27

28. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories  Mandatory Incident details Location details Aircraft details Ramp conditions Phase of operation Activities Type of damage Damage to aircraft Ground equipment Severity 28

29. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories 29

30. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories 30

31. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories 31

32. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories 32

33. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories  Arrival ~ Time period from when the aircraft nose wheel crosses onto the stand until the anti-collision light is off  Towing ~ Time period when an aircraft is being towed from one location to another  Servicing ~ Time period an aircraft is being serviced at a gate / stand  Departure ~ Time period when the anti-collision light is turned on and the brakes are off until control is handed over to Flight Operations 33

34. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories 34

35. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories 35

36. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories 36

37. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories 37

38. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories  Minor ~ No operational effect  Low ~ Aircraft inop < 60 mins  Moderate ~ Aircraft inop ≥60 minutes <24 hours  High ~ Aircraft inop ≥ 24 hours  Catastrophic ~ Hull loss 38

39. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories  Hours out of service ~ rounded up to the nearest hour Note: this field is for calculation purposes only, and should not be confused with severity 39

40. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories  Optional Causal factors Corrective actions Free text 40

41. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Field Categories 41

42. 26 th IGHC Conference Ground Damage Database Statistical Analysis

43. 26 th IGHC Conference  Summarizes data  Measures the quality of the data  Assess the degree of variation Critical to understanding the process performance Measure process performance  Calculate separate descriptive statistics for each group, allowing to see how the groups differ I dentify “critical x’s” Predict process performance with improvements Statistical Analysis 43

44. 26 th IGHC Conference  Quickly compare distributions  Highlights the variability of the data  Displays data from different categories  Can compare several groups of data at once Sample ~ Box Plot 44

45. 26 th IGHC Conference  Displays the control of a process In control process shows random variation Out of control process shows unusual variation due to special causes  Help to determine where to focus problem-solving efforts by distinguishing between common and special-cause variation Sample ~ Control Charts 45

46. 26 th IGHC Conference  Displays defects from largest to smallest  Prioritize issues and focus improvement efforts on areas where largest gains can be made  Separates the "vital few" problems from the "trivial many” Sample ~ Pareto Charts 46

47. 26 th IGHC Conference  Measure process improvements  If distributions are normal can estimate the performance if new procedures are put in place Sample ~ Probability Charts 47

48. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Hypothesis Test ~ P-Value Help us determine whether observed differences are: Statistically significant Or Due to chance (random variation) 48

49. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  Null Hypothesis = No statistical difference Things are “on Target”, “same”, difference is due to “random variation” Not likely to be a critical x or may require more data  Alternative Hypothesis = statistical difference Things are NOT “on target”, “the same”, due to “random variation” Data supports this x as a likely cause for further investigation Hypothesis Test ~ P-Value 49

50. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  P-Value represents the risk that we are wrong if we conclude that the null hypothesis is false That we claim there is a difference and there isn’t one  Numerically P-Value < 0.05 we can conclude that we found a statistical difference We may say we have a 5% chance of being wrong when we conclude that something is “off-target” Hypothesis Test ~ P-Value 50

51. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY We have found a statistical difference if the p-value is < 0.05 Hypothesis Test ~ P-Value 51

52. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  Type of Report (found vs. reported) and Severity Correlations: Num report, Num Sev Pearson correlation of Num report and Num Sev = -0.334 P-Value = 0.000 Statistically Significant Initial Analysis ~ Some Comparisons 52

53. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  Type of Report (found vs. reported) and Organization Correlations: Num Org, Num report Pearson correlation of Num Org and Num report = 0.124 P-Value = 0.040 Statistically Significant Initial Analysis ~ Some Comparisons 53

54. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  Month of Report and Severity Correlations: Mnth, Num Sev Pearson correlation of Mnth and Num Sev = 0.065 P-Value = 0.292 Not Statistically Significant Initial Analysis ~ Some Comparisons 54

55. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  Type of Report (found vs. reported) and Reporting Region Correlations: Num report, Num Region Pearson correlation of Num report and Num Region = - 0.232 P-Value = 0.000 Statistically Significant Initial Analysis ~ Some Comparisons 55

56. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  Reporting Region and Severity Correlations: Num Region, Num Sev Pearson correlation of Num Region and Num Sev = 0.221 P-Value = 0.000 Statistically Significant Initial Analysis ~ Some Comparisons 56

57. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Type of Report (found vs. reported) and Severity Type of Report (found vs. reported) and Organization  Month of Report and Severity Type of Report (found vs. reported) and Reporting Region Reporting Region and Severity Initial Analysis ~ Some Comparisons 57

58. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  Severity and Organization Does the organization affect the severity of reports One-way ANOVA: Num Sev versus Num Org Source DF SS MS F P Num Org 8 68.510 8.564 18.30 0.000 Error 256 119.830 0.468 Total 264 188.340 S = 0.6842 R-Sq = 36.38% R-Sq(adj) = 34.39% Initial Analysis ~ Comparison of Means At least one organization’s mean is different 58

59. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  Severity and Organization Does the organization affect the severity of reports One-way ANOVA: Num Sev versus Num Org Source DF SS MS F P Num Org 8 68.510 8.564 18.30 0.000 Error 256 119.830 0.468 Total 264 188.340 S = 0.6842 R-Sq = 36.38% R-Sq(adj) = 34.39% Initial Analysis ~ Comparison of Means At least one organization’s mean is different But how much variation does this explain? 59

60. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  Severity and Organization Does the organization affect the severity of reports One-way ANOVA: Num Sev versus Num Org Source DF SS MS F P Num Org 8 68.510 8.564 18.30 0.000 Error 256 119.830 0.468 Total 264 188.340 S = 0.6842 R-Sq = 36.38% R-Sq(adj) = 34.39% Initial Analysis ~ Comparison of Means But how much variation does this explain? 36% 60

61. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Initial Analysis ~ Comparison of Means 61

62. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Statistical Analysis ~ In Summary Statistical analysis produces more tangible information Measures process performance Identify and prioritize contributing factors to process performance Measure and predict process performance improvements Provides confidence interval Measures the quality of the data »Need trained resources »Need consistent data »Dependent on controlled inputs 62

63. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY  Must know restrictions of data Sample size MSA Practical importance  GDDB data Small sample size Much variance in data but significantly better Practical importance will be vetted by WGs and TFs Statistical Analysis ~ In Summary 63

64. 26 th IGHC Conference Ground Damage Database Sample Observations to Date

65. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Observations ~ Type of Report Source: IATA Q4 2012 GDDB 57% 43% 65

66. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Observations ~ Type of Report by Severity Source: IATA Q4 2012 GDDB 66

67. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Observations ~ Areas of Damage Source: IATA Q4 2012 GDDB Engine 7 Fuselage 46 Wings 13 Doors 81 Lights 0 Cargo Hold 58 Landing Gear 9 67

68. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Observations ~ Areas of Damage Source: IATA Q4 2012 GDDB Engine 7 Fuselage 46 Wings 13 Doors 81 Lights 0 Cargo Hold 58 Landing Gear 9 3 High Severity 10 Moderate Severity 68

69. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Observations ~ High Severity Reports Source: IATA Q4 2012 GDDB Engine 0 Fuselage 3 Wings 3 Doors 4 Lights 0 Cargo Hold 1 Landing Gear 3 13 High events reported Note: 1 report indicated damage to both Fuselage and Wings 69

70. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Observations ~ High Severity Reports Source: IATA Q4 2012 GDDB 70

71. 26 th IGHC Conference Ground Damage Database Ongoing Development

72. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY GDDB Development  Numerous requests to expand the database to include entire scope of AHM and ISAGO  TF meetings planned for May (DOH) and Sep (YUL) Establishment of a costing model Identify reporting challenges / solutions Development of a phased plan to expand scope 72

73. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Strategy ~ Continuous Improvement Circle Verification Audit Hazard Identification Data analysis Feedback Operational Procedures Procedures Job cards Regulatory Environment and Framework Standards Polices Framework Implementation Verification Database 73

74. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Strategy ~ Continuous Improvement Circle Verification Audit Hazard Identification Data analysis Feedback Operational Procedures Procedures Job cards Regulatory Environment and Framework Standards Polices AHMIGOM ISAGO GDDB 74

75. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY GSIC ODM GADM 75

76. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY Participant Support  IT development Automated quality check Web Form Discussions with strategic partners to develop GDDB submission extract from existing reporting systems Common dimension tables Participant query tool 76

77. 26 th IGHC Conference NO TYPE OR IMAGES CAN TOUCH THE SKY 77

78. 26 th IGHC Conference Ground Damage Database Thank You