Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Understanding Markets and Long-Term Investing December 31, 2014.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Understanding Markets and Long-Term Investing December 31, 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 Understanding Markets and Long-Term Investing December 31, 2014

2 2 The beauty of newspapers, from a publisher’s perspective, is that they’re addictive. A story doesn’t unfold all in one go, like a novel. It fills in, bit by bit, over days. So, you have to keep buying the next day’s newspaper. The story of markets and individual investments, as presented in various media, is like that. Every day, we get a few disjointed pieces of information. But, for some reason, they rarely add up to a practical investment principle, like diversification. More often, they simply stir up emotions. The charts in the following pages are, by contrast, the accumulation of years and years of data. They tell a long-term story of market behaviour – good and bad. They lay the groundwork for an understanding of risks and rewards. They set the stage for rational discussions of asset mix and individual investments. We assembled these charts because we’re not interested in selling papers. We’re interested in growing wealth for long-term investors. The story behind these charts…

3 3 Predicting the winner is difficult

4 4 40 years and 58X your investment S&P/TSX Composite Index (1974 – 2014) Sources: Bloomberg & Mackenzie Based on the S&P/TSX Composite TRI including reinvested dividends between December 31, 1974 and December 31, 2014 Value of $1 (log scale) $58.66 December 31, 2014 5,766% cumulative return (10.7% annualized) = 58x your original investment +203% +109% +16% +168% +277% +44% -39% -25% -20% -21% -43% +114% +253% -38% -27%

5 5 1-Year period: Strong market gains (despite pullback in second half) S&P/TSX Composite Index Source: Bloomberg for graph line, MSCI indices unless otherwise noted, as at December 31, 2014* Total returns, local currency Closes at 14,632 Dec 31 Closes at 13,622 Dec 31 1 Yr total return as at Dec 31 +10.6 % Long-term investors have benefited by employing fundamental investment strategies, managing expectations & emotions, and “staying the course”. S&P/TSXS&P 500Euro Area JapanEmerg. MktsWorld +10.6%+13.7% +4.7% +9.5% +5.2% +9.8% Global Market Indices 1-Yr returns to December 31* : EM

6 6 2014 at-a-Glance S&P/TSX Composite Index * Source for bear-Russia visual: The Economist; Source for U.S. dollar visual: Reuters; † Bank of Canada Overnight rate was decreased to 0.75% on January 21, 2015. Source: Bloomberg, as at December 31, 2014 JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember 0% - 0.25% (through Q4) 1.00% † (through Q4) Eurozone growth under pressure. Deflationary concern Corporate resilience maintained but pressured. GDP growth solid with momentum Despite diverging economic performance and unexpected shocks... an uneven global recovery continues. $1,185/oz. (Dec 31-14) $53/bbl (Dec 31-14) Global growth perseveres but uneven. Challenges continue U.S economy cooled in Q1 but sprung back with momentum Eurozone sees positive growth again but varied by area. China and Emerging Markets challenged / recovering Wall of worry “on risk / off risk” Cautious optimism but uncertainty heightened Fed and BOC rates remain at / near historical lows “Tapering” begins The U.S. Federal Reserve initiated the tapering of its bond-purchase stimulus program in January QE ends: Oct-14 Ongoing geopolitical conflict & inclement weather (in Q1) challenge* 13,622 14,632 +10.6 % Total return 2014 Loonie under pressure USD significantly strengthens relative to most currencies $0.86 USD (Dec 31-14) Currency shocks Russian Rouble – one of several in 2014 Price of gold regains some lustre (in Q4-14) Price of crude plunges (through 2H-14)

7 7 June 2008 Peak  December 2014 (May 30, 2008 – December 31, 2014) S&P/TSX Composite Index Source: Bloomberg, as at December 31, 2014; Price index returns, local currency. Visual Source: The Wall Street Journal “Worst case” scenario did not happen Less bad is good (improvements surfacing) Markets lead … sustained recovery solidifies but many economies & consumers remain challenged Global recovery perseveres Growth & fiscal challenges remain. The road of this recovery remains bumpy -50 % peak-to bottom Closes at 14,632 Dec 31-14 Past peak 15,073 June 18-08 bottom at 7,567 Mar 9-09 Wall of worry “on risk / off risk” continues Cautious optimism but clouds of uncertainty heightened Eurozone growth under pressure. Deflationary concern Corporate resilience maintained but pressured. GDP growth solid with momentum. Despite diverging economic performance and unexpected shocks... an uneven global recovery continues. +93 % bottom to Dec-14

8 8 Returns on TSX for 2014 (and 2013) Close look at the TSX... Source: Bloomberg, Full year data as of December 31, 2014; 2013 data from January 1 to December 31, 2013 2013 13.0% 23.6% 37.3% 72.1% 43.0% 37.5% -4.1% 13.1% 23.7% -29.1% 13.6% S&P/TSX Index January 1 to December 31, 2014

9 9 Comparing 2014 returns in local currency to CDN$-based On Watch: Currency – the hidden difference Note: Above expressed in total returns (Canada: S&P/TSX; U.S.: S&P500; Euro: MSCI Europe; Japan: MSCI Japan; World: MSCI World) Source: Bloomberg, as at December 31, 2014 CanadaU.S. Euro Area Japan Emerg. Mkts World Stock markets Local currency returns +10.6%+13.7%+4.7%+9.5%+5.2%+9.8% CDN$-based returns +10.6%+24.2%+2.5%+4.9%+6.9%+14.7% EM

10 10 The next move may not be clear Source: Bloomberg, as at December 31, 2014; Visual Source: Barron’s, July 13, 2009 S&P/TSX Composite Index Closes at 8,988 Dec 31 Closes at 7,567 Mar 9 Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14Dec-14 ? ? Closes at 14,632 Dec 31

11 11 The 1975-76 market recovery may provide insights Looking back at what may lie ahead Dow Jones Industrial Average since WWII (to December 31, 2014) Source of concept: MarketWatch 1973-74 Bear / 1975-76 Bull / 1976-83 Rollercoaster (Oct 2, 1972 – Jan 3, 1983) 1973-76 Vietnam War / oil crisis end of gold standard

12 12 Not to worry, I am a long-term investor! Market cycles: Investing & emotions don’t mix Capitulation Confidence Euphoria Denial Relief This is great! The price is going up! I am buying MORE! Sell NOW! Optimism Panic S&P/TSX Composite Index (Dec. 31, 1994 to Dec. 31, 2014) Sell NOW! Dec 31-94 4,214 Sources: Bloomberg (index) as at December 31, 2014 and IFIC (mutual fund net sales) as at December 31, 2014 1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 2014 Mutual Fund Sales (net sales $ billion) $35.4$17.7$21.8$28.9$2.5($1.4)$14.3$22.6$20.8$34.9$0.1$1.5$12.0$21.2$30.4$41.9$57.8 Dec 31-14 14,632

13 13 Always remember... it’s only a cycle Market cycle relative to economic cycle... but each has differences Source: Mackenzie Investments Stock Market CycleEconomic Cycle Peak Top Trough Mid Recovery Mid Recession Late Bear Early Bear Bottom Late Bull Early Bull For illustrative purposes only

14 14 S&P/TSX Composite Index to December 2014 Bull & Bear Markets Bull & Bear Facts * Average gain in bull market:+126% Average length of bull market: 49 months Average loss in bear market:-28% Average length of bear market: 9 months * Based on data since 1956. See page 2 for more details. Source: Mackenzie Investments (Bloomberg: month-end data points as at December 31, 2014; total return, local currency) 85% 48 months 81% 43 months -17% 6 months 63% 32 months 82% 40 months -15% 8 months -25% 13 months -35% 11 months -39% 12 months 288% 81 months 253% 61 months -25% 4 months 44% 25 months -20% 10 months 203% 90 months -28% 4 months 109% 24 months -38% 13 months 16% 6 months -21% 6 months 168% 68 months -43% 9 months 114% 70 months -26% 17 months 320 240 160 80 0 -30 % Change (log scale) 566065707580859095000510 14

15 15 Bull & Bear Markets: S&P/TSX The Risks and Rewards of Investing: This chart represents the bull and bear markets in the S&P/TSX Index since 1956. All bars above the line are bull markets; all bars below are bear markets. For the purposes of this illustration, a bull (bear) market is defined as a positive (negative) move greater than 15% that lasts at least 3 months. The first bar represents a bear market which, at its lowest point, dropped to -26% and lasted 17 months. This was followed by a bull market rising 85% and lasting 48 months. Since 1956 there have been 12 bull markets and 12 bear markets. As can be seen from the chart, bull markets typically last longer and provide a more significant percentage change. Bear markets during this period have averaged -28% and lasted only 9 months. Bull markets during this period have averaged 126% and lasted 49 months. This is the reward for accepting the risk of bear markets. Investor Behaviour: According to the chart, markets spend more time in positive territory (bull) than negative (bear). Bull markets are, on average, longer and more intense, providing a more significant percentage change. On average bear markets are more brief, and yet engender fear. It is during these periods that there are significant investment ‘bargains’ to be found. Investor discipline during bear markets is critical.

16 16 S&P 500 Composite Index to December 2014 Bull & Bear Markets Bull & Bear Facts * Average gain in bull market:+154% Average length of bull market: 50 months Average loss in bear market:-27% Average length of bear market: 14 months * Based on data since 1956. See page 2 for more details. Source: Mackenzie Investments (Bloomberg: month-end data points as at December 31, 2014; total return, local currency) 104% 48 months 90% 43 months 52% 26 months 76% 30 months -15% 17 months -22% 6 months -16% 8 months -29% 19 months -43% 21 months 87% 33 months 86% 27 months -17% 20 months 280% 61 months -30% 3 months 72% 30 months 526% 118 months -15% 5 months -45% 25 months -15% 14 months -51% 16 months 108% 61 months 217% 70 months 520 280 80 0 -40 % Change (log scale) 56606570758085909500051014

17 17 Bull & Bear Markets: S&P 500 The Risks and Rewards of Investing: This chart represents the bull and bear markets in the S&P 500 Composite Total Return since 1956. All bars above the line are bull markets; all bars below are bear markets. For the purposes of this illustration, a bull (bear) market is defined as a positive (negative) move greater than 15% that lasts at least 3 months. The first bar represents a bear market which, at its lowest point, dropped to -15% and lasted 17 months. This was followed by a bull market rising 104% and lasting 48 months. Since 1956 there have been 11 bull markets and 11 bear markets. As can be seen from the chart, bull markets typically last longer and provide a more significant percentage change. Bear markets during this period have averaged -27% and lasted only 14 months. Bull markets during this period have averaged 154% and lasted 50 months. This is the reward for accepting the risk of bear markets. Investor Behaviour: According to the chart, markets spend more time in positive territory (bull) than negative (bear). Bull markets are, on average, longer and more intense, providing a more significant percentage change. On average bear markets are more brief, and yet engender fear. It is during these periods that there are significant investment ‘bargains’ to be found. Investor discipline during bear markets is critical.

18 18 S&P/TSX Declines Greater Than 30% Source: Datastream; for period Sept. 2, 1929 to Mar. 9, 2009

19 19 Bear market decisions… Value of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 (US$) January 31, 1973: 3 months Later…$9,285 6 months Later…$9,465 9 months Later…$9,545 12 months Later…$8,587 1 year, 8 months later (Sept/74 Market Low) $5,816 At what point do you think most investors would have given up and thrown in the towel? $5,816 removed from the market & re-invested in an interest bearing CD at 10.5%: 6 months later…$6,121 12 months later…$6,426 2 years later…$7,101 5 years later…$9,581 10 years later…$16,145 (after re-investment Sept/79 for 5 yrs at prevailing rate of 11%) Source: Bloomberg; for period Jan. 31, 1973 to Sept. 30, 1979

20 20 Bear market decisions… What if you had kept your $5,816 invested in the S&P 500 (US$) instead of going into cash on Sept 30, 1974? 10 years later…$24,671 5 years later…$12,596 2 years later…$10,468 12 months later…$ 8,033 6 months later…$ 7,820 Food for thought. Source: Bloomberg; for period Sept. 30, 1974 to Sept. 30, 1984

21 21 Bear market decisions… What if you invested an additional $10,000 in the S&P 500 (US$) instead of going into cash on Sept 30, 1974? 10 years later…$67,091 5 years later…$34,254 2 years later…$28,465 12 months later…$21,846 6 months later…$21,266 Food for thought. Source: Bloomberg; for period Sept. 30, 1974 to Sept. 30, 1984

22 22 Bear market decisions… Value of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 (US$) August 31, 2000: 3 months later…$8,688 6 months later…$8,216 9 months later…$8,349 12 months later…$7,561 2 years, 1 month later (Sept/02 Market Low) $5,527 At what point do you think most investors would have given up and thrown in the towel? $5,527 removed from the market & re-invested in a 5-year GIC at 3.28%: 12 months later…$5,708 2 years later…$5,895 3 years later…$6,087 5 years later…$6,493 Source: Bloomberg; for period Aug. 31, 2000 to Sept. 30, 2007

23 23 Bear market decisions… What if you had kept your $5,527 invested in the S&P 500 (US$) instead of going into cash on Sept 30, 2002? 5 years later…$11,337 3 years later…$ 8,788 2 years later…$ 7,829 12 months later…$ 6,875 6 months later…$ 5,804 Food for thought. Source: Bloomberg; for period Sept. 30, 2002 to Sept. 30, 2007

24 24 Bear market decisions… What if you invested an additional $10,000 in the S&P 500 (US$) instead of going into cash on Sept 30, 2002? 5 years later…$31,842 3 years later…$24,685 2 years later…$21,992 12 months later…$19,315 6 months later…$16,306 Food for thought. Source: Bloomberg; for period Sept. 30, 2002 to Sept. 30, 2007

25 25 Bear market decisions… Value of $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 (US$) January 31, 2007 : 3 months later…$10,353 6 months later…$10,210 9 months later…$10,921 12 months later…$9,769 2 years, 2 months later (Mar/09 Market Low) $5,826 At what point do you think most investors would have given up and thrown in the towel? $5,826 removed from the market & re-invested in a 5-year GIC at 1.96%: 6 months later…$5,883 12 months later…$5,941 2 years later…$6,057 3 year later…$6,176 5 years, 9 months later (as at Dec/14) $6,514 Source: Bloomberg; for period Jan. 31, 2007 to Dec. 31, 2014

26 26 Bear market decisions… What if you had kept your $5,826 invested in the S&P 500 (US$) instead of going into cash on March 31, 2009? 5 years, 9 months later… $16,986 3 years later… $10,953 2 years later…$10,091 12 months later… $8,726 6 months later… $7,809 Food for thought. Source: Bloomberg; for period Mar. 31, 2009 to Dec. 31, 2014

27 27 Bear market decisions… What if you invested an additional $10,000 in the S&P 500 (US$) instead of going into cash on March 31, 2009? 5 years, 9 months later… $46,139 3 years later…$29,752 2 years later…$27,411 12 months later…$23,703 6 months later…$21,211 Food for thought. Source: Bloomberg; for period Mar. 31, 2009 to Dec. 31, 2014

28 28 Staying invested may improve returns Source: Datastream. Benchmark. S&P 500 Composite, US$ return.

29 29 Real Return of a GIC Source: Bloomberg, as at December 31, 2014 Dec-14

30 30 Real Return of $10,000 Source: Bloomberg, as at December 31, 2014. Note: “Real return” reflects nominal return less marginal tax rate at 40% and inflation rate. S&P 500 Real Return:$79,664 MSCI World Real Return:$52,996 S&P/TSX Real Return:$49,819 1 Yr GIC Real Return:$9,719

31 31 20 years of the S&P/TSX You can’t afford to miss the best weeks Value of $10,000 invested Dec. 1994 to Dec. 2014 Sources: Bloomberg & Mackenzie Financial, S&P/TSX Price Index; From December 31, 1994 to December 31, 2014 $34,672 $30,501 $21,160 $15,156

32 32 20 years of the S&P/TSX Stock market gains are often swift and unpredictable. Investors who choose to stay out of the market, even for short periods, frequently miss out on great opportunities. This chart assumes an investor put $10,000 into the S&P/TSX 20 years ago (December 31, 1994). Over this period the average annual return for the S&P/TSX was 6.4%. Look what happens if the same investor attempts to time the market. Missing the best week: Assume an investor was worried that the market was overvalued and decided to take his or her money out of their investments and as a consequence missed the best week. Their return drops from 6.4% to 5.7%. Missing the best five weeks: Return drops to 3.8%. Missing the best 10 weeks: Return drops to 2.1%. Being in the market for the entire 20-year period would have resulted in a portfolio value of $34,672. If the investor missed the top ten weeks the portfolio value drops to $15,156. Considering that there are 1,040 weeks in 20 years – 10 weeks make up less than 1% of the available time – missing those time periods reduces the investor’s gain by almost $20,000. That’s over half of the investor’s total return!

33 33 20 years of the S&P 500 You can’t afford to miss the best weeks Value of $10,000 invested Dec. 1994 to Dec. 2014 Sources: Bloomberg and Mackenzie Financial, S&P 500 Price Index (CAD$); From December 31, 1994 to December 31, 2014 $37,707 $34,371 $25,128 $18,393

34 34 20 Years of the S&P 500 Stock market gains are often swift and unpredictable. Investors who choose to stay out of the market, even for short periods, frequently miss out on great opportunities. This chart assumes an investor put $10,000 into the S&P 500 20 years ago (December 31, 1994). Over this period the average annual return for the S&P 500 was 6.8% (CAD$). Look what happens if the same investor attempts to time the market. Missing the best week: Assume an investor was worried that the market was overvalued and decided to take his or her money out of their investments and as a consequence missed the best week. Their return drops from 6.8% to 6.3%. Missing the best five weeks: Return drops to 4.7%. Missing the best 10 weeks: Return drops to 3.1%. Being in the market for the entire 20-year period would have resulted in a portfolio value of $37,707. If the investor missed the top ten weeks the portfolio value drops to $18,393. Considering that there are 1,040 weeks in 20 years – 10 weeks make up less than 1% of the available time – missing those time periods reduces the investor’s gain by more than $19,000. That’s over half of the investor’s total return!

35 35 Cuban Missile Crisis Vietnam War Oil Embargo Gold Hits $850/oz Black Monday Berlin Wall Falls Asian Crisis Tech Bubble Stay invested: patience is rewarded Rolling 5-Year Average Annual Returns ValueDate BEST28.6%1999 AVERAGE11.1% MEDIAN12.8% WORST-2.4%1974 Rolling 5-year average annual compound returns (S&P 500 TR) Only seven negative periods (since 1954) Global Financial Crisis Source: Bloomberg, as at December 31, 2014 European Sovereign Debt Crisis

36 36 Observations Since 1954, there have been fifty-four 5-year periods when investors made money (based on the sixty-one periods on the chart). During this timeframe there have been only seven 5-year periods when investors lost money. The worst return was -2.4% (1970-1974). The average 5-year rolling return has been 11.1% Consider the first bar on the chart. If you had put money into the market at the beginning of 1949, your portfolio would have grown almost 24% annually by the end of 1954. Investment strategists and professionals constantly warn investors about important economic variables, such as interest rates, inflation, a depreciating currency, oil prices rising, and even presidential elections. It is often suggested that, before investing, investors wait for certainty to arise around a specific variable. However, there will always be uncertainty in the market. ImplicationsConclusions If a long-term perspective was maintained, performance did not suffer during times of uncertainty or crisis. Waiting on the sidelines until there is no uncertainty could mean a missed investment opportunity. Investor expectations

37 37 U.S. Stock Market Annual Total Return: 190-Year History Positive Years: 135 (71%) Negative Years: 55 (29%) Sources: Universal Economics; Bloomberg; Index: S&P 500, Total Return, USD 18381900193619351933 190718311835184018341880192719281885 2008185718281833183618321852190818631879 19311937183918251827182618291846183018431862 -50 to -40-40 to -30-30 to -20-20 to -10-10 to 00 to 1010 to 2020 to 3030 to 4040 to 5050 to 60 Annual Return Range (%) 2013 2012 2014

38 38 A tale of 5 recessions Recession # 1: 1973 to 1975 Recession started:Nov. 1973 ended:March 1975 End announced:N/A Oct. 1973 Arab oil embargo causes oil prices to quadruple Inflation rate soars from 6.2% in 1973 to 11% in 1974 Sources: Bloomberg (chart), NBER (recession dates) S&P 500 Index (recession) 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Nov-72May-73Nov-73May-74Nov-74May-75Nov-75

39 39 A tale of 5 recessions Recession # 2: 1980 Double-digit inflation since mid-1970s Oil imports reduced from Iran in 1979 US central bank aggressively raises interest rates Sources: Bloomberg (chart), NBER (recession dates) 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Jan-79Apr-79Jul-79Oct-79Jan-80Apr-80Jul-80Oct-80Jan-81Apr-81 (recession) S&P 500 Index Recession started:Jan. 1980 ended:July 1980 End announced:July 1981

40 40 A tale of 5 recessions Recession # 3: 1981 to 1982 Runaway inflation: $1 in 1975 has same buying power as $2 in 1985 US central bank raises rates from 11% (1979) to 20% (1981) Sources: Bloomberg (chart), NBER (recession dates), US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI) 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 Jul-80Nov-80Mar-81Jul-81Nov-81Mar-82Jul-82Nov-82Mar-83Jul-83Nov-83 (recession) S&P 500 Index Recession started:July 1981 ended:Nov. 1982 End announced:July 1983

41 41 A tale of 5 recessions Recession # 4: 1990 to 1991 Real estate bubble of late 1980s bursts Savings & Loan Crisis: 1,000+ institutions bankrupt (1986-1995) Sources: Bloomberg (chart), NBER (recession dates), FDIC (savings & loan bankruptcies) 260 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 440 Jul-89Jan-90Jul-90Jan-91Jul-91Jan-92 (recession) S&P 500 Index Recession started:July 1990 ended:March 1991 End announced:Dec. 1992

42 42 US housing downturn, subprime mortgage meltdown, global financial crisis Recession lasted 18 months – longest of any recession since World War II S&P 500 Index (recession) A tale of 5 recessions Recession # 5: 2007 to 2009 Recession started:Dec. 2007 ended:June 2009 End announced:Sep. 2010 Sources: Bloomberg (chart), NBER (recession dates)

43 43 5.5 years after recession officially ended... where are we now? June 30, 2009 – Dec. 31, 2014: +151% Source: YahooFinance, as at December 31, 2014; Cumulative return for S&P500 at 151% expressed in total return, CDN currency Recession ends June 2009

44 44 Recession declared “officially over” “ The longest U.S. recession since WWII is officially over. NBER stated the recession started in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 ” NBER release September 20, 2010 Business CycleDuration (months) PeakTrough Contraction (peak to trough) Expansion (previous trough to this peak) December, 2007June, 20091873 March, 2001November, 20018120 July, 1990March, 1991892 July, 1981November, 19821612 January, 1980July, 1980658 November, 1973March, 19751636 December, 1969November, 197011106 April, 1960February, 19611024 August, 1957April, 1958839 July, 1953May, 19541045 November, 1948October, 19491137 February, 1945October, 1945880 Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 20, 2010

45 45 Average length RecessionExpansion 1854 to 2009 (33 cycles)16 months42 months 1945 to 2009 (11 cycles)11 months59 months Expansions vs. recessions in the US 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1902 1907 1910 1913 1918 1920 1923 1926 1929 1937 1945 1948 1953 1957 1960 1969 1973 1980 1981 1990 2001 2007 Number of Months Expansions Recessions Current Expansion Recession start dates - excluding current expansion Recession is the number of months from peak to trough. Expansion is the number of months from the previous trough to latest peak, eg. 120 months: March1991 to March 2001 expansion. 2014* Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research; *Current expansion period provided by Mackenzie Financial; as at December 31, 2014.

46 46 When is the right time to invest Five approaches. Two are easy, repeatable & proven ? Investing $2,000/yr in S&P/TSX over 20 years PerfectDollar Cost New Year’sTerribleBought T-Bills TimerAverager InvestorTimernot Stocks It’s time in the market... not market timing Even “terrible timing” trumps not investing Sources: Mackenzie Financial, Bloomberg, S&P/TSX Composite Index, as at December 31, 2014. Quick explanation of the five approaches: 1) Perfect Timer – able to invest the $2,000 into the market every year at the lowest monthly close, 2) Dollar Cost Averager – divided the $2,000 into 12 equal amounts and invested at the beginning of each month, 3) New Year’s Investor – invested the $2,000 in the market consistently at the beginning of each year, 4) Terrible Timer – invested the $2,000 each year at the market’s peak, and 5) Bought T-Bills – left the $2,000 in cash (using DEX 91-day T-Bill index as a proxy) never investing in stocks. Each approach starts with an initial investment of $2,000.

47 47 ???% (Feb 28, 2019) Despite challenging declines – Down markets have always rebounded and gone on to reach new heights 10-year rolling return of S&P 500 Index, Dec. 31, 1935 to Dec. 31, 2014 Sources: Ibbotson Associates, S&P500; USD, price return, as at December 31, 2014 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% -9.90% (Aug 31, 1939) +3.13% (Aug 31, 1949) -2.77% (Sept 30, 1974) +10.08% (Sept 30, 1984) -5.08% (Feb 28, 2009) History shows

48 48 This document includes forward-looking information that is based on forecasts of future events as of December 31, 2014. Mackenzie Financial Corporation will not necessarily update the information to reflect changes after that date. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and risks and uncertainties often cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking information or expectations. Some of these risks are changes to or volatility in the economy, politics, securities markets, interest rates, currency exchange rates, business competition, capital markets, technology, laws, or when catastrophic events occur. Do not place undue reliance on forward-looking information. In addition, any statement about companies is not an endorsement or recommendation to buy or sell any security. The content of this document (including facts, views, opinions, recommendations, descriptions of or references to, products or securities) is not to be used or construed as investment advice, as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, or an endorsement, recommendation or sponsorship of any entity or security cited. Although we endeavour to ensure its accuracy and completeness, we assume no responsibility for any reliance upon it. Unlike mutual funds, the returns and principal of GICs are guaranteed. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or distributed to the public. Disclaimer


Download ppt "Understanding Markets and Long-Term Investing December 31, 2014."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google